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Title: Scientific American: Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2015-Fuel Cell Vehicles are #1
Source:
Scientific American
URL Source: http://www.scientificamerican.com/a ... merging-technologies-of-20151/
Published: Mar 4, 2015
Author: World Economic Forum
Post Date: 2015-03-09 18:19:09 by Operation 40
Keywords: None
Views: 731
Comments: 1
Scientific American March 4, 2015 Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2015 From autonomous drones to emergent AI to digital genomes, this year’s list from the World Economic Forum offers its latest glimpse of our fast-approaching technological future Technology is perhaps the greatest agent of change in the modern world. Although never without risk, technological breakthroughs promise solutions to the most pressing global challenges of our time. From zero-emission cars fueled by hydrogen to computer chips modeled on the human brain, this year’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies list—an annual compilation from the World Economic Forum (WEF)—offers a vivid glimpse of the power of innovation to improve lives, transform industries and safeguard our planet. To compile this list the WEF’s Meta-Council on Emerging Technologies, a panel of 18 experts, draws on the collective expertise of the Forum’s numerous communities to identify the most important technological trends. In doing so, the Meta-Council aims to raise awareness of their potential and contribute to closing the gaps in investment, regulation and public understanding that so often thwart progress. 1. Fuel-cell vehicles Zero-emission cars that run on hydrogen Fuel-cell vehicles have long promised several major advantages over those powered by electricity or hydrocarbons. The technology has only now begun to reach the stage where automotive companies are planning launches for consumers, however. Initial prices are likely to be in the range of $70,000 but should come down significantly as volumes increase within the next couple of years. Unlike batteries, which must be charged from an external source and can take from five to 12 hours depending on the car and charger, fuel cells generate electricity directly, using hydrogen or natural gas. In practice, fuel cells and batteries are combined, with the fuel cell generating electricity and the batteries storing it until demanded by the motors that drive the vehicle. Fuel-cell vehicles are therefore hybrids and will likely also deploy regenerative braking, which recovers energy from waste heat, a key capability for maximizing efficiency and range. Unlike battery-powered electric vehicles, fuel-cell powered ones have a long cruising range—up to 650 kilometers per tank (the fuel is usually compressed hydrogen gas); a hydrogen fuel refill only takes about three minutes. Hydrogen is clean-burning, producing only water vapor as waste, so fuel-cell vehicles using hydrogen will be zero-emission, an important factor given the need to reduce air pollution. There are a number of ways to produce hydrogen without generating carbon emissions. Most obviously, renewable sources of electricity from wind and solar sources can be used to electrolyze water—although the overall energy efficiency of this process is likely to be quite low. Hydrogen can also be split from water in high-temperature nuclear reactors or generated from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, with the resulting carbon dioxide captured and sequestered rather than released into the atmosphere. As well as the production of cheap hydrogen on a large scale, a significant challenge is the lack of a hydrogen distribution infrastructure that would be needed to parallel and eventually replace gas and diesel filling stations. Long-distance transport of hydrogen, even in a compressed state, is not considered economically feasible today. Innovative hydrogen storage techniques, such as organic liquid carriers that do not require high-pressure storage, however, will soon lower the cost of long-distance transport and ease the risks associated with gas storage and inadvertent release. Mass-market fuel-cell vehicles are an attractive prospect because they will offer the range and fueling convenience of today’s diesel and gas-powered vehicles while providing the benefits of sustainability in personal transportation. Achieving these benefits will, however, require the reliable and economical production of hydrogen from entirely low-carbon sources as well as its distribution to a growing fleet of vehicles, expected to number in the many millions within a decade. 2. Next-generation robotics Rolling away from the production line...SNIP Power fuel cells with solar hydrogen = energy independence Honda Introduces Solar Hydrogen Station on Saitama Prefectural Office Grounds TOKYO, Japan, March 27, 2012 - Honda Motor Co., Ltd. unveiled a Solar Hydrogen Station on the grounds of the Saitama Prefectural Office. The initiative is part of the Electric Vehicle Testing Program for Honda’s next-generation personal mobility products with Saitama Prefecture, in which Honda, Iwatani and Saitama Prefecture collaborate to build... 
Continue: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-20151/ 
http://world.honda.com/news/2012/4120327Solar-Hydrogen-Station/index.html
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#1. To: Operation 40 (#0)
As I posted before, Toyota as the market leader in hydrogen cars will at most build 10,000 Hydrogenmobiles in 2020 (they hope to sell 3,000 Mirais in 2017). They will lose $70K per vehicle with cars costing $70K and will give away free hydrogen fuel for three years or more. They only are offering hydrogen fueling stations in CA only with only about 68 refueling locations. Even if this does happen eventually, it ain't happening Real Soon Now. Many of the sunny forecasts for hydrogen cars bear uncanny resemblance to the sales pitches for hybrid and electric cars circa 2008 which have mostly fallen flat in an era of cheaper gas now that Peak Oil myths have been utterly shattered. In 2013, there were about 4.3 million vehicles built. Let's just assume it drops to a mere 4 million in 2017. The 3,000 hydrogen cars that Toyota hopes to build and sell in America in 2017 would then represent 0.075% of the 2017 American car market. Less than one car in a thousand will be hydrogen. And that assumes very low car sales (which benefits the Toyota numbers) and assumes Toyota can meet its targets.
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