Too many Democrats are too eager to gain distance from Obama before 2016.
Well, to override a veto takes a two-thirds majority of those voting in both houses.
This is tricky, because you'd think it means that it takes 67 Senators (out of 100) and 290 Representatives (out of 435) to override a veto. But that is not so.
It requires a 2/3rds majority of a voting quorum. The quorum for a vote in the Senate is 51 (if all 100 seats are filled). The quorum for a vote in the House is 218 (if all House seats are filled). If there are unfilled seats, the quorum is reduced by the vacancies.
That means that - if every seat in both houses is filled but all members are not present, a Presidential veto can be overturned by 2/3rds majority 34 votes (if only 51 Senators are present - enough for a quorum), and by a 2/3rds majority of 146 votes of a quorum of 218.
Of course, if an issue is contentious, it is unlikely that half of the House or the Senate won't show up.
If everybody shows up, it will take 67 Senators and 290 Representatives to override a veto.
In the next Congress, Republicans will hold 54 seats in the Senate. 13 Democrats - a quarter of the Democrats - would have to actively break ranks to vote against the President.
Republicans will hold at least 244 seats (some Louisiana seats are yet to be decided). If Democrats get all those seats, and Representatives are present and voting, 46 Democrats - about a quarter of the caucus will have to cross the aisle to vote with the Republicans to override the President.
If Obama vetoes the Keystone Pipeline, that might happen. But if Congress rams through a repeal of Obamacare, Obama will veto and there will not be enough Democrat votes to override.
Republicans will get the Keystone Pipeline, because lots of Democrats want it. Otherwise, they will be completely stymied during the next two years.
a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate is 67 out of 100 senators, while a two-thirds super majority in the House is 290 out of 435 representatives.
But if Congress rams through a repeal of Obamacare, Obama will veto and there will not be enough Democrat votes to override.
Considering how many have been kicked to the curb because of voting for it I would just imagine quite a few would vote for repeal in an attempt to save their asses in the next couple of elections. Whether it is enough or not remains to be seen.
In theory, yes. In practice, no, because the bill would have to be signed by the President, and he will veto it. Which means that Congress will either have to pass a continuing resolution, and thereby fund Obamacare - or refuse to, thereby shutting down the government. And Mitch McConnell and the Republican leadership have already said multiple times that they will not be shutting down the government.
So, in theory, Obamacare can be struck down, either by the Republican Supreme Court, or by the Republican Congress being willing to shut down the government. But John Roberts (Republican, Va.) is still Chief Justice, and he already upheld Obamacare once. And the Senate Majority Leader (just elected so unanimously by his caucus) won't shut the government.
So Obamacare remains the law of the land, because the Democrats want it, and deep in the back rooms, the Republican alphas also want it.
The bulk of the country doesn't want it, but they went and elected Democrats and Republicans who were always going to uphold it. So it's here to stay.
