Larry Sabato's final prediction was 53-47R. +8R in the Senate and +9R in the House.
He's usually close.
When everyone on the Fox News and GOP side were gushing Romney would win, Sabato was telling them that Obama would win with 51% of the vote. He turned out to be the closest.
I would note that I also predicted both Obama wins and got called a Communist. I believe that Nate Silver at 538 called the last election closest, correctly predicting all 50 states.
The fact is there are too many too close to call races the GOP once again is too optimistic about. We know close races are won by demoncrats.
These Senate races are Statewide elections, as opposed to a House race which can be monitored closely. The demoncrats control the urban poll sites and can easily fudge the results in a few districts to make up for the reduced Dem turn out.
There are many close races. It is quite possible that there will be several runoff elections (GA/LA) if nobody gets over in those states.
Turnout for the Dems will be down. Student debt exceeds the national credit card debt. Lots of formerly enthusiastic youth voters are still living with their parents or have moved back in. Approval of the economy is about 40% underwater. Obamacare and Obama on [non] border control are owned by the Democrats. There are Senate races in a number of states that Romney won.
This race tightened up over the past four or five days. Warner will gain lots of votes when the VA northeast (outside D.C) reports. A week or so ago this was a double-digit Dem lead. It speaks to the election trend that this race may be very close.
The Republican Party of Virginia informed the Virginia Department of Elections that, “Voters have difficulty selecting the candidate of their choice using the touch screen because the screen’s touch sensor is not properly aligned with the text that appears on the screen."
Meanwhile, Democrats are reportedly getting "nervous" about Sen. Mark Warner's (D-VA) race against Ed Gillespie.
It wouldn't be election day without problems at polling places. In Connecticut, voting machines were broken and registration books missing. In D.C., thieves stole digital voter books. In New Mexico, dead people received absentee ballots. No word yet on how often people in Cook County have voted.
Not looking too bad. GOP held all that they needed to hold. So far a historic one election Senate gain. Last time I think was 1980 with Reagan coat tails. House GOP projected to gain 10 seats.
But as many as received him, to them gave he power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name (John 1:12)
