Sabato says 51-49 is his optimistic call. That's after Alaska is decided and a run off in LA.
He's usually close. When everyone on the Fox News and GOP side were gushing Romney would win, Sabato was telling them that Obama would win with 51% of the vote. He turned out to be the closest.
The fact is there are too many too close to call races the GOP once again is too optimistic about. We know close races are won by demoncrats.
These Senate races are Statewide elections, as opposed to a House race which can be monitored closely. The demoncrats control the urban poll sites and can easily fudge the results in a few districts to make up for the reduced Dem turn out.
It will be a long night. I am just not optimistic of what the talking heads are touting.
Larry Sabato's final prediction was 53-47R. +8R in the Senate and +9R in the House.
He's usually close.
When everyone on the Fox News and GOP side were gushing Romney would win, Sabato was telling them that Obama would win with 51% of the vote. He turned out to be the closest.
I would note that I also predicted both Obama wins and got called a Communist. I believe that Nate Silver at 538 called the last election closest, correctly predicting all 50 states.
The fact is there are too many too close to call races the GOP once again is too optimistic about. We know close races are won by demoncrats.
These Senate races are Statewide elections, as opposed to a House race which can be monitored closely. The demoncrats control the urban poll sites and can easily fudge the results in a few districts to make up for the reduced Dem turn out.
There are many close races. It is quite possible that there will be several runoff elections (GA/LA) if nobody gets over in those states.
Turnout for the Dems will be down. Student debt exceeds the national credit card debt. Lots of formerly enthusiastic youth voters are still living with their parents or have moved back in. Approval of the economy is about 40% underwater. Obamacare and Obama on [non] border control are owned by the Democrats. There are Senate races in a number of states that Romney won.
