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International News Title: Rise of Islamists frays strategic UAE-Egyptian relations DUBAI – Days before his overthrow, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak received a senior visitor from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of several Gulf monarchies long supportive of the most Arab populous country and its veteran strongman. What transpired between Mubarak and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan is not known, beyond the fact that a letter from UAE ruler Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan was delivered. But the significance of the February 8, 2011 visit was clear: It was a gesture of understanding and concern for a longtime friend who had been a trusted diplomatic ally for most Gulf Arabs, not least in their confrontation with non-Arab Iran. Fast forward to 2013 and the picture is starkly different. The UAE-Egyptian relationship has been strained by the regional spread of Islamist influence – Egypt now has an elected Islamist president – with implications not only for the two protagonists but all Arab states hit by the uprisings against dictators and dynasties that began two years ago. Poorer, densely populated Arab states like Egypt often look to Gulf states for investment and financing, as well as overseas work for their nationals, a need ever more acute with rulers under unprecedented pressure to produce jobs and services. The UAE, home to around 380,000 Egyptian expatriates and a major investor in Egypt, pledged $3 billion of aid to Cairo in 2011. But the funds have not yet been transferred, an Egyptian source familiar with the matter told Reuters, mainly due to the political instability in post-revolution Egypt. A break in relations between the Arab political heavyweight and the Gulf financial powerhouse would be unthinkable. But the unfamiliar chill in their dealings reflects an increasingly complicated relationship between these two groups of countries. Gulf states historically have sent aid and investment to less moneyed fellow Arabs, and in return have received diplomatic support and sometimes military protection. The UAE-Egypt spat “does have a huge bearing on the success of the Arab transitions”, said Jane Kinninmont of the British think tank Chatham House. HUGE ECONOMIC NEEDS “Here you have a number of countries which are going through transitions but which have huge economic needs. The obvious place for them to look is the wealthy Gulf Arab countries.” Arab countries received 62 percent of all Gulf aid from 1970 to 2008, according to a study by researchers Bessma Momani and Crystal Ennis in the Cambridge Review of International Affairs. For its part, the UAE needs to tread a careful line, analysts say. Aggravating Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood could also affect UAE relations with other countries, like Syria, where Islamists are playing a major role in the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad. And irking Egypt’s new rulers could also push Cairo closer to Shi’ite Iran, arch-adversary of the Gulf Arabs. Gulf Sunni Muslim rulers fear that, despite being a Sunni group itself, the Brotherhood is soft on Iran, unlike Mubarak. “The Emirates recognise that Egypt’s centrality in Arab affairs is an important counter to Iran,” said Frederic Wehrey, Middle East program senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank. Gulf Arab states need a prosperous Egypt for a host of reasons, not least to protect their own investments. But history shows that financial help from the region sometimes reflects shifts in the diplomatic climate – even if governments insist their assistance is not political. For example Jordan’s ties with Gulf were hurt in 1990 when it refused to join an alliance against Iraq after it invaded Kuwait. Many Palestinians and Jordanians lost jobs in the Gulf where they enjoyed welfare state benefits as expatriate workers. There are implications, too, for Gulf Arab states. Most saw Mubarak’s fall as the result of a U.S. decision to cast adrift an erstwhile ally and common adversary of Iran, rather than as an acceptance of an unstoppable revolution. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 1.
#1. To: A K A Stone (#0)
See CIA owns Muslim Brotherhood for details....;} BTW. Syria is over. We lost.
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