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Title: NATE SILVER: Obama’s Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit 85% (Intrade 63%)
Source:
Business Insider
URL Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-election-odds-2012-10-z
Published: Nov 4, 2012
Author: Henry Blodget
Post Date: 2012-11-04 10:04:46 by Hondo68
Keywords: None
Views: 6773
Comments: 12
With two days to go, Obama's odds of winning re-election have reached their highest level ever, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a solid lead, though with much less conviction. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls. Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge. Let's go to the data... First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 85% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate. Nate Silver, New York Times On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds are now at 63%, a drop of a few points from yesterday, back in a range in the low 60s where they've been for the last few weeks. Intrade Intrade And, on Betfair, Obama's odds are holding above 75%. Betfair In short, in everything but some of the national polls, Obama has a strong lead heading into the last two days of the race. Poster Comment: Mittens is delivering the neocon dream, four more years of whining about black liberation theology, and blaming the Dems for everything. Softening the rubes up for Jeb Bush/Mehgan McCain 2016! 
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#1. To: hondo68 (#0)
Silver was one of the few that was 'spot-on' in 2008 wasn't he? ;)
It is not easy reconstructing 'molded minds'... It's pretty obvious; Barack Obama is going to serve two terms as POTUS. Time for the fat lady to sing Ronmey's demise, and for Barack supporters to break out the old Corrigan Brothers song about how no one's as Irish as Barack Obama.
He's full of malarkey for sure!
Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.
I agree with you on that one.
However, I still would take one of these for a holiday present this December :-D In 2010, Nate Silver projected the GOP would pick up 54 seats in the House. They picked up 63 seats - - a whopping 17% difference. In 2010, there were only 4 close Senate races (Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Alaska). Silver got 3 of the 4 (75%) wrong. For example, Silver predicted that Sharron Angle was going to win Nevada by 3 points. Harry Reid won by 5.5% - - that's a huge 8.5% difference. This year, he gave Santorum an 18% chance of winning the Iowa Caucus and Romney a 44% of winning. Santorum basically tied Romney with 25% of the vote. Silver's crystal ball is overrated. He is going to be wrong again on Tuesday.
He is going to be wrong again on Tuesday. Only if the GOP/WSJ wet dream of keeping Sandy affected voters from voting comes to fruition.
Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET
Another guru bites the dust. It's a close race, it could go either way. Obama is losing his voice, so Uncle Joe or Carney may have to take over dishing out the malarkey. “In between every single event, he basically walks off the stage, gets on a phone call with governors, mayors and first-responders,” Ms. Psaki said. “Just from being backstage, that’s what he’s doing every single moment. He’s focused on it every minute he’s not on the stage.” The president also was losing his voice from round-the-clock campaigning in the days before the storm hit the United States. Mr. Romney also has been campaigning full-time since taking a day off to support relief efforts on Tuesday. Read more: Obama seeks votes as complaints mount over storm response - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/3/obama-gets-briefing-storm-recovery/#ixzz2BHeJN0jI Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter
Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.
Explain how NY/NJ are key battlegrounds essential to a Romney/Ryan victory, dumbass. Or are you just practicing for Wednesday's liberal whine fest?
Please cite your source....
Or are you just practicing for Wednesday's liberal whine fest? I'm not privy to the political machinations that you appear to be. So Obama doesn't need them to turn out in order to win? The GOP says that all his voters live on the coasts.
Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET
#2. To: Brian S (#1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HplZ_taHXLM
#3. To: Ferret Mike (#2)
no one's as Irish as Barack Obama
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#4. To: hondo68 (#3)
#5. To: hondo68 (#3)
#6. To: hondo68 (#0)
"we must as a species go into a period of shrinkage that we have not experienced since the Dark Ages and the Black Plague" -- lucysmom
#7. To: jwpegler (#6)
(Edited)
Silver's crystal ball is overrated.
#8. To: jwpegler, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#6)
Silver predicted that Sharron Angle was going to win Nevada
Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki, defending the president’s full campaign schedule amid the post-storm suffering on the East Coast, told reporters that Mr. Obama is “losing his voice a little bit out on the campaign trail” because he is talking on the phone constantly with state and local officials between rallies where he stumps for votes.
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#9. To: mininggold (#7)
#10. To: mininggold (#7)
Only if the GOP/WSJ wet dream of keeping Sandy affected voters from voting comes to fruition.
#11. To: jwpegler (#6)
Silver's crystal ball is overrated.
#12. To: Thunderbird (#10)
(Edited)
Explain how NY/NJ are key battlegrounds essential to a Romney/Ryan victory, dumbass.
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