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Title: NATE SILVER: Obama’s Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit 85% (Intrade 63%)
Source:
Business Insider
URL Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-election-odds-2012-10-z
Published: Nov 4, 2012
Author: Henry Blodget
Post Date: 2012-11-04 10:04:46 by Hondo68
Keywords: None
Views: 7258
Comments: 12
With two days to go, Obama's odds of winning re-election have reached their highest level ever, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a solid lead, though with much less conviction. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls. Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge. Let's go to the data... First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 85% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate. Nate Silver, New York Times On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds are now at 63%, a drop of a few points from yesterday, back in a range in the low 60s where they've been for the last few weeks. Intrade Intrade And, on Betfair, Obama's odds are holding above 75%. Betfair In short, in everything but some of the national polls, Obama has a strong lead heading into the last two days of the race. Poster Comment: Mittens is delivering the neocon dream, four more years of whining about black liberation theology, and blaming the Dems for everything. Softening the rubes up for Jeb Bush/Mehgan McCain 2016! 
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#6. To: hondo68 (#0)
In 2010, Nate Silver projected the GOP would pick up 54 seats in the House. They picked up 63 seats - - a whopping 17% difference. In 2010, there were only 4 close Senate races (Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Alaska). Silver got 3 of the 4 (75%) wrong. For example, Silver predicted that Sharron Angle was going to win Nevada by 3 points. Harry Reid won by 5.5% - - that's a huge 8.5% difference. This year, he gave Santorum an 18% chance of winning the Iowa Caucus and Romney a 44% of winning. Santorum basically tied Romney with 25% of the vote. Silver's crystal ball is overrated. He is going to be wrong again on Tuesday.
He is going to be wrong again on Tuesday. Only if the GOP/WSJ wet dream of keeping Sandy affected voters from voting comes to fruition.
Explain how NY/NJ are key battlegrounds essential to a Romney/Ryan victory, dumbass. Or are you just practicing for Wednesday's liberal whine fest?
Or are you just practicing for Wednesday's liberal whine fest? I'm not privy to the political machinations that you appear to be. So Obama doesn't need them to turn out in order to win? The GOP says that all his voters live on the coasts.
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#7. To: jwpegler (#6)
(Edited)
Silver's crystal ball is overrated.
#10. To: mininggold (#7)
Only if the GOP/WSJ wet dream of keeping Sandy affected voters from voting comes to fruition.
#12. To: Thunderbird (#10)
(Edited)
Explain how NY/NJ are key battlegrounds essential to a Romney/Ryan victory, dumbass.
Replies to Comment # 12.
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