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Title: Election Predictions
Source:
Dissenting Opinions
URL Source: http://jwpegler.blogspot.com/2012/11/election-predictions.html
Published: Nov 3, 2012
Author: jwpegler
Post Date: 2012-11-03 19:26:29 by jwpegler
Keywords: None
Views: 42418
Comments: 65
We are three days away from one of the two most consequential elections in my lifetime (along with 1980). So, it's time to go out on a limb and make my predictions for what is likely going to happen. Presidency Mitt Romney will be elected the next President of the United States. No President since Franklin Roosevelt has won reelection with the unemployment rate above 7.2%. No President ever has won reelection with a smaller share of the vote than he got when originally elected to the Presidency... and no one anywhere argues that Obama will get more than the 52.9% of the vote he got in 2008. The country has been in a sour mood for about four years now. Obama will pay the price, just like McCain did in 2008. They will have both paid the price for denying that the country is in dire economic straights. The big difference between McCain and Obama is that Obama is in charge of the country's troubles. Yes, there are a couple of polls (Quinnipiac and Marist) that show Obama with a substantial lead. However, those polls have unrealistic turnout models. They are both projecting Democrat turnout at or above the record 2008 levels, when people who have never voted before, and may never vote again, turned out to elect America's first black President. We are not going to see an 8 point Democrat advantage in turnout this year. Averaging the 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010 turnouts gives the GOP a 1% advantage in turnout. This would turn Obama's 5% lead in the Quinnipiac poll into a 4% Romney lead. In addition, in every poll, Romney is leading among independent voters. Romney will get somewhere between 271 and 331 votes. I have a bunch of very realistic models that predict this range. It will definitely not be a landslide like Nixon or Reagan. But unseating a sitting President will be enough to give him the mandate he needs to get the economy back on track. There is a small chance that Romney will win the popular vote, but Obama will win the electoral vote. This is an increasingly popular fantasy with the mainstream media, who are desperate to see Obama re-elected. This scenario had some credibility 2 to 3 weeks ago. But probably no longer. House Republicans will retain control of the House. There is no question about this at all. The GOP could lose up to 5 seats. If Romney wins, they could gain up to 5 seats. Given their advantage with the last redistricting, the GOP should easily pick up 20 to 25 seats. They won't. It demonstrates how incompetent the House GOP "leadership" really is. Senate The Senate should have been a blowout in favor of the GOP this year. There are twice as many Democrat seats up for grabs than Republican seats, and the country is in a sour mood. Unfortunately, like 2010, the GOP nominated many of the wrong people. In 2010, the GOP nominated and won with great people like Rand Paul. However, they also got their ass kicked with the witch from Delaware and the religious kook from Nevada. If the various Tea Parties want to have a sustained positive influence on the country, they need to be able to distinguish between GREAT reformers like Rand Paul and self-serving kooks like Christine O'Donnell. This year, the GOP could have easily won Senate races in Indiana and Missouri. Yet, the are struggling because the GOP candidates in both states made idiotic comments about rape. It's a message to the Tea Parties -- not to be more "moderate", but to be more discerning (selective) about the people they support. The Senate will be tight -- a small Democrat majority is very likely, but a small Republican majority is still possible, in spite of the GOP's idiocy. My prediction is that the Democrats will barely retain control.
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#34. To: jwpegler (#0)
See, this thread here is a percect example of your kookery. You were told time after time, by people much smarter than you are, but you refused to listen. This right here is what makes you a KOOK.
I was right on the House and the Senate. Why wasn't I right about the Presidency? Obama spent $300 million on television ads in the battle ground states over summer painting Romney as some kind of Simon Legree who wants to tie women up and throw them on the railroad tracks. And Romney just didn't response. He let Obama define him. People didn't get a good look at Romney until the debates. He started picking up momentum. But then the hurricane took the election off of the news for 5 days in the last week or so of the election. It stopped Romney's momentum. The Obama campaign were a bunch of bare knuckle brawlers who were willing to say anything to remain in power. Romney refused to jump in the gutter with them. That's why he lost.
My guess would be because, contrary to your own opinion, you DON'T know everything. Obama spent $300 million on television ads in the battle ground states over summer painting Romney as some kind of Simon Legree who wants to tie women up and throw them on the railroad tracks. And Romney just didn't response. He let Obama define him. People didn't get a good look at Romney until the debates. He started picking up momentum. But then the hurricane took the election off of the news for 5 days in the last week or so of the election. It stopped Romney's momentum. The Obama campaign were a bunch of bare knuckle brawlers who were willing to say anything to remain in power. Romney refused to jump in the gutter with them. That's why he lost. You took that straight from Hannity's show. I know because I listened today and heard Hannity make each and every point you just made. Hannity was wrong and so are you. AGAIN. Obama's campaign probably did turn SOME independents away Romney, but Romney destroyed Romney with conservatives. Romney is a liberal and has a years long record of liberalism that he simply couldn't run from and conservatives will not vote for a liberal. You've been told that for at least the last year but you wouldn't listen. Romney got 2.5 million less votes than McCain did in 08. If the RNC runs another liberal in 16, they'll lose again and even worse than this election. You're probably not a bad guy, but you do have the serious problem of thinking that you know everything already and have nothing left to learn. Maybe you should stop flapping your blog so much, parroting Hannity and Limbaugh quotes and Frank Luntz statistics, and listen to those around you whom you call KOOKS. You might actually learn something. If that's possible.
#54. To: We The People (#52)
Exactly. Look at it another way; there was only 60% turnout for this election. Which means the that the total registered voters were (118 million who actually voted)/.60 = ~196.666 million voters. The breakdown (from here): Barack Obama: 60652238 So in total, o'Bungler got 30.8% of registered voters, mcRomney got 29.4% of registered voters... and 77 million votes (or the majority- 40% of registered voters) went to.... "NONE OF THE ABOVE." As long as that fact remains hidden from mindless sheeple like pegler, they'll continue to believe the charade... When the truth is, the government has already- and obviously- lost any illusion of consent, from the American people. THIS fact, is the one that needs to be spread far and wide. Regards,
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#39. To: We The People (#34)
(Edited)
See, this thread here is a percect example of your kookery.
#52. To: jwpegler (#39)
Why wasn't I right about the Presidency?
Replies to Comment # 52. Hannity was wrong and so are you. AGAIN. Obama's campaign probably did turn SOME independents away Romney, but Romney destroyed Romney with conservatives. Romney is a liberal and has a years long record of liberalism that he simply couldn't run from and conservatives will not vote for a liberal. You've been told that for at least the last year but you wouldn't listen. Romney got 2.5 million less votes than McCain did in 08. If the RNC runs another liberal in 16, they'll lose again and even worse than this election.
Mitt Romney: 57810407
End Trace Mode for Comment # 52.
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