Obama: 303 expected electoral votes; 96% win probability (478 of 500 election trials). He leads the state poll weighted average by 48.4-45.7%. He leads in 14 of 18 Battleground states by 50.3-47.5% with 138 of 205 EV. Romney leads the RCP National Poll average: 47.8-47.2%.
The True Vote Model indicates that Obama would have 54% and 344 expected EV in a fraud-free election.
Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?