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Title: Obama Reelection Odds Increase In Prediction Markets Following Foreign Policy Debate
Source:
Huffington Post
URL Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/ ... 05379.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
Published: Oct 23, 2012
Author: Huffington Post
Post Date: 2012-10-23 16:49:53 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 2363
Comments: 3
NEW YORK -- The consensus after Monday night's third and final presidential debate is that Barack Obama was the winner. But the president's victory begs an important question -- does success in Boca Raton, Fla., mean he's more likely to win the election? Will voters care about foreign affairs at a time when things are so rough at home? According to online prediction markets, which pool conventional wisdom about the probability of future events, voters do care. Numbers compiled by PredictWise, which averages Obama's reelection odds on political betting websites like Intrade, showed that Obama received a bump during Monday night's debate in the likelihood of winning on Nov. 6. Obama's reelection odds on those prediction markets went from 62.5 to 64 percent over the course of the debate. Overall, however, PredictWise measures that Obama's odds are down to about where they were before the Republican National Convention in August. As always, the markets' predictive power should be read with skepticism. Even if they function properly, political betting websites are only as good as the conventional wisdom that they measure. And that wisdom can often be wrong -- Intraders thought the individual mandate in health care reform had a 70 percent chance of being struck down by the Supreme Court.
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
Checked the Intrade on Realclear politics. Obama went down a half point and Romney went up roughly a half point. But then again the market does not decide the election. What is interesting is the sell price for the shares right now. Quite an indicator. Some are selling Obama shares at over 300 shares for a few bucks. Romney's shares are for sale in the single digits for a few bucks. Tells you not many are dumping their Romney shares, but there are willing folks to dump around 396 shares for four bucks on Obama. If stock market 101 tells us anything, within the next few days the Obama dump or offer to dump will increase. Over the next 10 business market days may show the 57% Obama has to Romney 47% flip. So your data may be a bit dated or skewed. The people who bet on this stuff look at the national polls. And right now Obama is on the down trend.
"Thine eyes did see my substance, yet being unperfect; and in thy book all my members were written, which in continuance were fashioned, when as yet there was none of them.) Psalm 139:16
Obama stocks on Intrade have dropping all day long. Now under 0.57.
Obama has played at being a president while enjoying the perks … golf, insanely expensive vacations at tax-payer expense. He has ignored the responsibilities of the job; no plans, no budgets, no alternatives … just finger pointing; making him a complete failure as a president
Obama crashing Now down to 0.52
Obama has played at being a president while enjoying the perks … golf, insanely expensive vacations at tax-payer expense. He has ignored the responsibilities of the job; no plans, no budgets, no alternatives … just finger pointing; making him a complete failure as a president
#2. To: Brian S (#0)
#3. To: Brian S (#0)
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