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Title: Romney is winning the white vote — by a lot
Source:
washington post
URL Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs ... id%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost
Published: Oct 18, 2012
Author: blake
Post Date: 2012-10-18 12:43:01 by calcon
Keywords: None
Views: 6919
Comments: 19
Political analysts (including The Fix) spend a good bit of time these days talking about important voter groups — Latino voters and female voters, in particular. But all of the focus on these groups has obfuscated one fact: Mitt Romney is performing very, very well among white voters. And in fact, most recent polls show him winning the white vote by more than any GOP presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Some recent national polls have shown Romney losing the Latino vote by upwards of 40 or 50 points – a result that, if it came to pass, would significantly hurt the GOP’s chances of winning the White House, given the rapid growth in the Latino population. But even if Romney sustains a huge loss on the Latino vote, he could very well offset that (and much more) by out-performing his Republican predecessors when it comes to white voters, which are still about seven times as much of the electorate as Latinos. Indeed, it’s not unreasonable to think that Romney could win 60 percent or more of white voters this year. The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win. (The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, we should note, shows him winning whites by just 11 percent.) In 2008, white voters made up nearly three-fourths of the vote, while Latinos comprised 9 percent. Let’s say that, in the election on Nov. 6, there is a surge in the Latino vote (up to 11 percent of the electorate) and a coinciding drop in the white vote (down to 72 percent). Given how small the Latino vote remains, the difference between losing it by 36 points — as John McCain did in 2008 — and losing it by 45 points — a worst-case scenario for Romney — amounts to about a 1 percent overall shift in the national race. Meanwhile, if Romney won the white vote by 22 percent — a 10-point improvement over McCain — that would gain him 7 percent of the national vote over McCain and essentially even out the national popular vote. None of this is to say, of course, that the Latino vote isn’t important. It’s a fast-growing part of the electorate and one that Republicans are going to have to start competing better for in the very near future — and preferably, for them, this year. And as the Latino vote grows, the white vote becomes less and less of the electorate. But as far as the 2012 election goes, Romney’s strength among white voters could very well offset his and the Republican Party’s continued struggles among minorities, and be good enough to win Romney the presidency. GOP closes early vote deficit in Iowa: Early vote numbers continue to trickle in in Iowa — the only major swing state that currently has in-person early voting and party registration numbers — and they’re looking better for Republicans. While Iowa Democrats were voting almost three times as often as Republicans early this month, the GOP has steadily closed the gap. At present, 50 percent of ballots cast are from Democrats and 30 percent are from Republicans. The GOP lost early voting 47 percent to 29 percent in Iowa in 2008 and lost the state by nine points. So they’ll want to continue closing that gap. But they’re headed in the right direction right now. Meanwhile, the GOP is also gaining on absentee ballots in Florida (in-person early voting hasn’t begun there), though its current five-point edge is still shy of its 16 percentage point win on absentees in 2008.
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#1. To: calcon (#0)
This is a white country. With white ideas. Obama is not compatible with our nation. He needs to go back to Africa and try to help his people.
White people tend to make uppity servants. We need a slave class so the Honey Boo Boos feel superior.
I don't support slavery. That is what you and your democrats support. That and cutting up little babies to pieces then throwing them in the trash.
I notice the libs always fail to note that the KKK started out as the enforcement arm for demo party.
And you guys always fail to take note of Nixon's Southern Strategy. Enjoy your KKK!
The people of the South in general have much higher morals then someone in say California.
Conservative "South California" is splitting off into the 51st State (no it's not Israel), and letting the Schwarzen-Kennedy Moonbeam MitTard progressives in "Ecotopia" self destruct. Politician Campaigns to Make ‘South California’ Into Our 51st State
#15. To: hondo68 (#14)
crap, those dumbasses would last a month without all the tax dollars they STEAL from san diego and orange county
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#2. To: A K A Stone (#1)
This is a white country. With white ideas. Obama is not compatible with our nation. He needs to go back to Africa and try to help his people.
#3. To: mininggold (#2)
We need a slave class
#5. To: A K A Stone (#3)
#7. To: calcon (#5)
I notice the libs always fail to note that the KKK started out as the enforcement arm for demo party.
#10. To: mininggold (#7)
And you guys always fail to take note of Nixon's Southern Strategy.
#14. To: A K A Stone, mininggold (#10)
Replies to Comment # 14.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 14.
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