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United States News Title: Latest OH absentee #s (VERY nice) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2941659/posts
Astabula: R down .5% from 08
Athens: was 4.3:1 D in 08, now just over 2:1
Auglaize: Rs up 2.5% over 08 (small numbers, total requests down, Rs over ˝ way to entire 08 total)
Brown: Rs up 1.4% over 08 (all ballot requests down)
Carrol: Rs down 2% (small numbers 2111 total)
Champaign: big change---in 08 Rs “won” by 170 votes, now up almost 4:1
Clark: important county, in 08 Ds almost 2:1, now Rs have a 1000 vote advantage (about 3:2 lead) Total turnaround.
Clinton: 08, was a R 25% lead, now R 40% lead
Columbiana: 08, Ds won by 9%, now Rs up 8%
Coshocton: Rs up 4% over 08
Crawford: Ds won by 5% in 08, now trail by almost 12%; GOP already 3/5s of all 2008 absentee total in by 10/6
Cuyahoga: this is the big kahuna. Dems won by 36.6% in 08 absentees. This time, the difference is just under 6%!! Rs are already 9,000 absentee votes over 08 total!
*In the general election, ceteris paribus, this translates to a 60,000-70,000 D decline in this county alone!
Defiance, Rs 1.6% over 08
Erie: Another big D county. Margin of victory in absentees in 08 was 24%, today only 8%! Ds are 3700 short of 08 total, Rs just 790.
Fayette: Rs increased lead by 7% over 08
Franklin: Ds took this county by 21 points, and went into general with 3% lead in absentees. Today, they have a 5,500 vote deficit! A 7% net swing from 08.
Greene: Near Dayton, was a 4.2% D win in 08, now is more than 2:1 R for a 22 point swing.
Hamilton: (Cincinnati) Rs had a 3:2 lead in absentees in 08, today have a 2:1 lead
Jefferson, Ds had a 34/19 lead in 08, now lead 42/21
Lake: another important northern county, Rs have increased their % of total absentees from 5.7 to 6.3%
Licking: big swing from 34-34% of total absentees in 08 to 35-20 R advantage)
Lucas: Dems won by 25,000 votes in 08, now up only 6,000. 13 point swing in Rs favor
Mercer: Rs increase lead from 32-28 to 38-25%
Montgomery: big south-center D-heavy county. In 08 Ds had a 3:1 advantage in absentees. Today, 12,100 to 10,300, a rather massive decline. Rs within 1000 votes of already reaching 08 totals!
Muskingum: slight 1% D advantage in 08 to massive loss, more than 2:1 now.
Paulding: very small total numbers but a bellweather in that Bush won it and McCain lost it: Rs ahead in 08 absentees 33-17, today, 35-14.
Pickaway: 08 Ds had 1000 more absentees than Rs (12-point gap); today, Rs ahead by 600 votes and 14-point lead.
Portage: another 4% R increase over 08
Richland: Ds held a 400 vote edge in 08, now trail very slightly.
Ross: Ds had 17 point advantage in 08, now Rs have a 5-point advantage.
Seneca: Ds had very slight advantage in 08, Rs now have 3:2 advantage. Starke: Ds had an 8000 vote lead in 08 (44-27), now, 40-33 for a 10 point swing.
Summit: HUGE dropoff for Ds, from 43,500 ballots in 08 to 13,000. They lead this blue county, but the swing is from 47-14 to 25-18
Tuscarawas: Ds had more than 2:1 advantage in 08, now trail by 250 votes for a 25 point swing
Union: Rs had narrow 7% margin in 08, now have a 32-9% lead
Warren: important red county, no 08 data but Rs leading 4:1. McCain won, but by nowhere near this margin.
Wayne: Went D in 08 by 10%, now Rs hold a 12-point edge
Wood: Ds had a 1500 vote lead in 08 (10%) now Rs have a 100 vote lead. Big swing.
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
Read em and weep! Cuyahoga: this is the big kahuna. Dems won by 36.6% in 08 absentees. This time, the difference is just under 6%!! Rs are already 9,000 absentee votes over 08 total!
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