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Title: Possible Tropical System In Southern Gulf Has Forecasters On Alert
Source:
The Times-Picayune
URL Source: http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index ... ble_tropical_system_in_so.html
Published: Jun 22, 2012
Author: Mark Schleifstein
Post Date: 2012-06-22 13:39:10 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 362
It looks like we're going to be watching the development of a fairly typical early-season tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, marked by quite a bit of uncertainty over how strong it will become and exactly where it's going. The National Hurricane Center is dubbing the system with the placeholder name of "Invest96L." If it gains tropical storm or hurricane strength, it would be named Debby. At 8 a.m., Senior Hurricane Specialist Michael Brennan said the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the large low pressure system was still located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and remained disorganized. But surface pressures across that area of the Gulf were falling and environmetnal conditions seem conducive for a tropical depression to form in the next day or two. That's why the center gives the system a 70 percent change of becoming a tropical cyclone -- the catch-all term for depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes -- during the next 48 hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Forecasters at the Slidell office of the National Weather Service are watching the system's evolution carefully. In their morning forecast discussion message, they said computer forecast models show the low a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coastline by Saturday evening. "If this is the case, higher winds and higher seas will be expected, and at least a small craft advisory will be needed," the message said. "That also depends if the system has not developed into a named system by then." The Slidell forecasters are leaning towards the predictions of the Global Forecast System model, which brings the system slowly towards the mouth of the Mississippi River, where it meanders for a day or so before heading northeast into the western Florida coast north of Tampa. An upper-level high pressure system is expected to expand over the central and southern plains from Sunday through the middle of next week, which could help stall the low over the Gulf. "There is a great deal of uncertainty with this system developing, strengthening, and possible track, due to the initial weak steering winds next week," their message said. Meanwhile, the continued pattern of winds blowing out of the east and northeast at 15 to 20 mph over the northern Gulf will continue through at least Sunday, so even without the approaching storm, minor coastal flooding will continue along south and east-facing shores of southeast Louisiana and tidal lakes. A coastal flood advisory is in effect through Saturday, and may be extended. Tide levels will peak at 2.5 to 3.5 feet at high tides, though actual flooding will be less than 1 foot. And the developing Midwest high also is blowing warmer air into the area, which will result in heat index values climbing into the 100 to 105 degree range Sunday through Tuesday, if the tropical system doesn't approach.
View full sizeThe National Weather Service's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's forecast of total rainfall along the Gulf coast for the next three days.
View full sizePaths of developing system predicted by a variety of forecast models.
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