Russia’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in at least 13 years last month and retail- sales growth unexpectedly accelerated, supporting the central bank’s decision to leave borrowing costs unchanged.
The jobless rate dropped 0.4 percentage point to 5.4 percent, a level last seen four years ago and the lowest since at least 1999, the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service said today in an e-mailed report. Retail sales grew 6.8 percent from 6.4 percent in April. Economists forecast unemployment at 5.7 percent and retail-sales expansion at 6.1 percent, according to two Bloomberg surveys.
The central bank left its refinancing rate at 8 percent for a sixth month June 15, saying borrowing costs are appropriate “in the coming months” for trends in the economy, which grew 4.9 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter. President Vladimir Putin needs a stronger labor market to sustain consumer spending and balance shrinking sales in Russia’s biggest trading partners, the European Union and China.
“Unemployment is near record-lows and credit growth continues to expand rapidly,” Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia at ING Groep NV in Moscow, said by phone before the release. “It’s unlikely the central bank will see any reason to change its stance.”
Fixed-capital investment advanced 7.7 percent from a year earlier in May, the service said, beating the 6.9 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Real wages grew 11.1 percent and real disposable incomes rose 3.6 percent, compared with 9.6 percent and 2.7 percent median estimates in two Bloomberg polls.
