[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Rare Van Halen Leicestershire, Donnington Park August 18, 1984 Valerie Bertinelli Cameo

If you need a Good Opening for black, use this.

"Arrogant Hunter Biden has never been held accountable — until now"

How Republicans in Key Senate Races Are Flip-Flopping on Abortion

Idaho bar sparks fury for declaring June 'Heterosexual Awesomeness Month' and giving free beers and 15% discounts to straight men

Son of Buc-ee’s co-owner indicted for filming guests in the shower and having sex. He says the law makes it OK.

South Africa warns US could be liable for ICC prosecution for supporting Israel

Today I turned 50!

San Diego Police officer resigns after getting locked in the backseat with female detainee

Gazan Refugee Warns the World about Hamas

Iranian stabbed for sharing his faith, miraculously made it across the border without a passport!

Protest and Clashes outside Trump's Bronx Rally in Crotona Park

Netanyahu Issues Warning To US Leaders Over ICC Arrest Warrants: 'You're Next'

Will it ever end?

Did Pope Francis Just Call Jesus a Liar?

Climate: The Movie (The Cold Truth) Updated 4K version

There can never be peace on Earth for as long as Islamic Sharia exists

The Victims of Benny Hinn: 30 Years of Spiritual Deception.

Trump Is Planning to Send Kill Teams to Mexico to Take Out Cartel Leaders

The Great Falling Away in the Church is Here | Tim Dilena

How Ridiculous? Blade-Less Swiss Army Knife Debuts As Weapon Laws Tighten

Jewish students beaten with sticks at University of Amsterdam

Terrorists shut down Park Avenue.

Police begin arresting democrats outside Met Gala.

The minute the total solar eclipse appeared over US

Three Types Of People To Mark And Avoid In The Church Today

Are The 4 Horsemen Of The Apocalypse About To Appear?

France sends combat troops to Ukraine battlefront

Facts you may not have heard about Muslims in England.

George Washington University raises the Hamas flag. American Flag has been removed.

Alabama students chant Take A Shower to the Hamas terrorists on campus.

In Day of the Lord, 24 Church Elders with Crowns Join Jesus in His Throne

In Day of the Lord, 24 Church Elders with Crowns Join Jesus in His Throne

Deadly Saltwater and Deadly Fresh Water to Increase

Deadly Cancers to soon Become Thing of the Past?

Plague of deadly New Diseases Continues

[FULL VIDEO] Police release bodycam footage of Monroe County District Attorney Sandra Doorley traffi

Police clash with pro-Palestine protesters on Ohio State University campus

Joe Rogan Experience #2138 - Tucker Carlson

Police Dispersing Student Protesters at USC - Breaking News Coverage (College Protests)

What Passover Means For The New Testament Believer

Are We Closer Than Ever To The Next Pandemic?

War in Ukraine Turns on Russia

what happened during total solar eclipse

Israel Attacks Iran, Report Says - LIVE Breaking News Coverage

Earth is Scorched with Heat

Antiwar Activists Chant ‘Death to America’ at Event Featuring Chicago Alderman

Vibe Shift

A stream that makes the pleasant Rain sound.

Older Men - Keep One Foot In The Dark Ages

Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

See other Business Articles

Title: Truckers as Leading Indicator Show Stable U.S. Economic Growth
Source: Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012- ... table-u-s-economic-growth.html
Published: Jun 14, 2012
Author: Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld
Post Date: 2012-06-14 12:27:49 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 782
Comments: 1

Rising truck shipments show the U.S. economic expansion is intact, even amid concerns that a slowdown in retail sales and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis could stall growth.

Two measures of trucking activity signal the industry remains steady and has even “firmed up” since mid-May, according to Ben Hartford, an analyst in Milwaukee with Robert W. Baird & Co. The data complement anecdotal information from carriers that freight demand ended May on a strong note after more weakness than anticipated earlier in the month, he said.

“Trucking trends are reflective of an economic environment that is stable, not deteriorating,” Hartford said.

The for-hire truck-tonnage index rose 2.8 percent in April from a year earlier, up from 0.2 percent the prior month, marking 29 months of growth, based on data from the American Trucking Associations. The economy has never contracted without tonnage turning negative first, so the truck figures are a leading indicator, providing the “first signal” of a slump, said Thom Albrecht, an analyst in Richmond, Virginia, with BB&T Capital Markets.

His “buy” recommendations include Celadon Group Inc. (CGI), Swift Transportation Co. (SWFT) and Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL)

Another index that tracks the movement of goods between manufacturers and consumers also is a “good barometer” of the economy, said Jonathan Starks, director of transportation analysis at FTR Associates. FTR’s index of U.S. truck loadings increased 3 percent to 115.9 in April from a year earlier, the highest since 2008, based on data from the Nashville, Indiana- based transportation-forecasting company.

Not Stalling

April’s improvement suggests the economy is expanding. “It’s not red-hot, but it’s not stalling, either,” Starks said, adding that annual gains above 5 percent would suggest robust activity. Index growth exceeded 5 percent between July 2010 and March 2011, the data show, while gross domestic product expanded an average 2.9 percent year-over-year in the same period.

Contacts at trucking companies describe a “seasonally stable demand environment,” Hartford said. Albrecht agreed, saying two carriers characterized activity in early June as “robust.”

These anecdotal “channel checks” are consistent with sentiment reported by Landstar System Inc. (LSTR) in its mid-quarter update, Albrecht said. The Jacksonville, Florida-based trucking company affirmed on May 29 its second-quarter earnings estimate of 71 cents to 76 cents a diluted share. This compares with first-quarter earnings of 57 cents a share.

‘As Forecasted’

Both the economy and the operating environment for Landstar are “pretty much as forecasted,” moving “in a northerly direction, albeit in a slow and sometimes choppy pace,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Henry Gerkens said on a conference call that day.

Landstar reiterated its guidance even as U.S. retail sales weakened. A 0.2 percent drop in May matched an April decline that previously was reported as a gain, based on data from the Commerce Department. This prompted some economists -- including those at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse AG -- to cut forecasts for second-quarter growth.

The sequential declines are “consistent with retailers’ broader concerns about consumer demand and validate cautious recent inventory strategies among retail and consumer shippers,” Hartford said.

Greek Exit

There also are “clouds of global economic uncertainty” hanging over the industry that could cause activity to falter, he added, with the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro area contributing to doubts about the future of Europe’s monetary union.

There occasionally have been “head fakes,” such as between November 1995 and September 1996, when annual tonnage was negative and the economy didn’t enter a recession, Albrecht said. Still, industry data and anecdotal comments from carriers -- both of which “have a good track record of signaling downturns or upturns” -- are “remarkably consistent in demonstrating slow but steady economic growth,” he said.

Further, forecasts for FTR’s loadings index suggest activity will return steadily to 2007’s pre-recession levels by late 2014, Starks said. The index has risen 12 percent from a 16-year low of 103.5 in December 2009, six months after the 18- month slump ended, the data show.

“We probably won’t get a new peak for another couple years,” Starks said. “But the data is clearly showing that we’re also not entering any sort of recessionary environment at the moment.”

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  

TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

#1. To: Stoner (#0)

Self Ping

Stoner  posted on  2012-06-14   12:35:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com