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Title: U.S. New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 0.2% in April; Initial Claims Inched Downward in the Latest Week
Source: Daily Forex Fundamentals
URL Source: http://www.actionforex.com/analysis ... he-latest-week-20120524166319/
Published: May 24, 2012
Author: Daily Forex Fundamentals
Post Date: 2012-05-24 12:15:22 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 839
Comments: 1

  • New orders for durable goods inched up 0.2% in April 2012 following a revised 3.7% decline (previously reported as -3.9%) in March. The gain in April matched market expectations.
  • Transportation orders unexpectedly rose 2.1% as rising motor vehicle orders offset falling orders for defence aircraft. Excluding the transportation component, orders fell 0.6% following a 0.8% decline (previously was -1.3%) in March and well below market expectations for a 0.8% gain.
  • Orders of non-defence capital equipment excluding aircraft, a commonly used proxy for future business investment, fell 1.9% following a revised 2.2% decline (previously was -3.9%) in March. The corresponding shipments measure, which enters directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ estimate of current business capital investment, fell 1.4% although this followed a 1.9% gain (was 1.7%) in March and a 1.4% increase in February.
  • While durable goods orders can be highly volatile on a monthly basis, the weakening in capital goods orders for a second consecutive month in April is disappointing and will likely raise some concerns about the health of business investment going forward. With that said, the decline in the corresponding shipments measure only partially retraces gains in previous months to leave it still an annualized 1.2% above its first-quarter 2012 level. This is still consistent with our forecast that growth in business equipment and software investment strengthened to an 8.5% rate in the second quarter of 2012 following a 1.7% gain in the first quarter of 2012. While still early, the flow of monthly data available through April remains consistent with our expectation that overall second-quarter 2012 GDP growth improved to a 2.8% rate from the 2.2% gain in the first quarter of 2012.

New orders for durable goods inched up an expected 0.2% in April 2012 following a sizeable 3.7% drop in March; however, this was despite an unexpected gain in the transportation component. Transportation orders rose 2.1% in April as a 5.6% gain in motor vehicle orders offset a 9.2% decline in aircraft orders that resulted entirely from lower defence orders. A larger drop in the aircraft component had been expected given an earlier reported slowing in orders from Boeing in the month. Excluding the transportation sector, orders unexpectedly fell 0.6% with much of the weakness reflecting falling orders for machinery (-2.8%) and fabricated metal products (-2.0%). Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, which is a commonly used proxy for future business investment, dropped 1.9% thereby marking the second consecutive monthly decline after an, albeit upwardly revised, 2.2% decline in March.

Shipments of durable goods rose 0.7% in April following a 1.0% (was 0.8%) gain in March. Shipments of non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft, which enters directly into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ quarterly estimate of business capital spending, fell 1.4%; however, this still only partially retraced solid 1.9% and 1.4% gains in March and February, respectively. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% in April following 0.4% and 0.3% gains in March and February, respectively.

While durable goods orders can be highly volatile on a monthly basis, the weakening in capital goods orders for a second consecutive month in April was disappointing and will likely raise concerns about the health of business investment going forward. With that said, the decline in the corresponding shipments measure only partially retraces gains in previous months to leave it still an annualized 1.2% above its first-quarter 2012 level. This is still consistent with our forecast that growth in business equipment and software investment strengthened to an 8.5% rate in the second quarter of 2012 following a 1.7% gain in the first quarter of 2012. While still early, the flow of monthly data available to this point remains consistent with our expectation that overall second-quarter 2012 GDP growth improved to a 2.8% rate from the 2.2% gain in the first quarter of 2012.

In a separate report this morning, US initial unemployment insurance claims inched down 2,000 to a 370,000 level in the week ending May 19, 2012 from an upwardly revised 372,000 level (was 370,000) the previous week. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which better controls for weekly volatility, fell to 370,000 from 375,500 the previous week. Continuing claims fell 29,000 to 3,260,000 in the week ending May 12, 2012.

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#1. To: Brian S (#0)

A slow day, eh? Digging for more proganda, I see.

Of course, your bullshit doesn't fly in the real world, as anybody who didn't fall off the turnip-truck last night already knows...

The proof that your so-called "recovery" is a joke, is posted at the article Economic Recovery Is an Illusion When Adjusted for Inflation

Check-mate, you lying fuck.

LoonyMing: I brandish my ignorance like a crucifix at vampires.
Translation: IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

'It's now very common to hear people say, "I'm rather offended by that", as if that gives them certain rights. It's no more than a whine. It has no meaning, it has no purpose, it has no reason to be respected as a phrase. "I'm offended by that." Well, so fucking what?' —Stephen Fry

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-05-24   13:56:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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