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Corrupt Government Title: Republicans face a long day of judgement from 80 million voters Republicans face a long day of judgement from 80 million voters By Gerard Baker The ruling party, bruised by the war in Iraq, a tarnished President, financial and sexual scandals and unrest in its own ranks, may be heading for defeat in the US midterm elections. Our US Editor assesses the factors that will define the scale of any Democrat advance Click here for a breakdown of the key battlegrounds in the House elections and here for a guide to the Senate and Gubernatorial elections ON TUESDAY, beginning before dawn in seaside villages along the coasts of Maine and Connecticut, and ending after sunset 18 hours later on the westernmost of the Aleutian islands in the North Pacific, 80 million Americans will go to the polls to determine the direction of their country for at least the next two years. They will be picking tens of thousands of governors, state legislators, mayors, judges, county executives, prosecutors, coroners and others. In some states they will be voting to approve or reject proposals on issues such as abortion, stem-cell research, gay marriage and taxes. But when the results pour in, all eyes will be on the Senate and House of Representatives in Washington. The indications are that disgruntled voters are ready to end the Republican Party’s hegemony of most of the past six years. The party’s leaders are readying themselves for the loss of at least the 15 seats that Democrats need to take control of the House. They are still optimistic that they will prevent the Democrats from taking the six Senate seats that would give them control of the Upper House, too. For their part, quietly — they don’t want to alarm voters with excessive confidence — Democrats are talking about “the wave”. They are beginning to think that voter dissatisfaction is now so great that it could produce a political tsunami, approaching in scale the 1994 midterm elections, when Republicans took control of the House for the first time in more than 30 years and won a big majority in the Senate. Such an outcome would have a profound effect on the policies that the divided American Government follows for the next few years in such globally significant areas as Iraq. It could alter the entire landscape of American politics in the run-up to the 2008 presidential election. A faltering war and an unpopular President, proliferating scandals among Republican politicians, the bungled response last year to Hurricane Katrina and growing disillusionment among Republican supporters about their party’s direction have been reflected in the polls for months. But making firm predictions, even this close to the election, is still risky. Unlike a national vote in Britain, US elections are a complex patchwork of often countervailing national and local politics, personalities and policies. Democrats may be riding a tide of anti-incumbent fever, but Republicans still hope that, for all their woes, they can convince enough people to turn up and vote. No one seriously doubts that Republicans will lose ground in Congress. But how badly? The scale of the Democratic advance — and whether it produces majorities in one or both houses — will depend on four key areas. Issues v Values There is little doubt that Iraq is uppermost in voters’ minds. In many states there are concerns, too, about the economy and disgust at financial and sexual scandals. If voters were to decide on the basis of these issues alone, the result would surely be a Democratic landslide. But against that is the importance in US elections of voters’ “values”. In some of the key Senate races, such as Tennessee and Missouri, where Democrats are hoping to win, conservative voters may be deeply unhappy with the conduct of the war and unhappy about what Washington has done. But many will still place the values that underpin their politics above the narrower issues of policy. Most of these voters are religious conservatives for whom matters such as abortion, stem-cell research and gay marriage count most — and they remain the Republicans’ most powerful electoral asset. National v Local “All politics is local,” a famous Democrat politician once said. It was, of course, precisely half- true. Clearly, not all politics is local. National political issues, such as the war, have been central to most of the congressional campaigns around the country and many voters will be looking to send a signal to Washington about their dissatisfaction with America’s direction. But in some Senate and House races, the national campaign is still eclipsed to some extent by questions much closer to home for most voters. In Virginia — another target seat for the Democrats in the Senate — a campaign that was expected to turn largely on the Iraq war and taxes has turned into a gaffe-driven referendum on the incumbent Republican, George Allen, who seems to have gone out of his way to offend as many ethnic minorities as he could find. In at least half a dozen House races, Republicans are suffering from the behaviour of their congressmen — from a convicted felon in Ohio to an intern-chasing libertine in Florida. Personalities v Personalities: President Bush’s name is not on the ballot on Tuesday, but his image is everywhere. One of the Democratic National Committee’s final TV commercials running across the country this weekend captures the centrality of the President to their campaign. Over a picture of a rather dulllooking shrub in a garden somewhere, a voice says: “You’re not going to get many answers on Iraq from this bush.” Then, as it cuts to a photograph of a slightly nonplussed-looking President, it goes on: “But then again, you’re not going to get many answers from this Bush either.” Republicans hope that they can offset some of this anti-presidential sentiment by pointing to some of the personalities who will dominate Congress if Democrats win — such as the faintly scary Nancy Pelosi, a leftwinger who would be Speaker of the House, and the rather charisma-free Harry Reid, who would be Senate Majority leader. Then there was John Kerry’s intervention this week in which he appeared to insult American servicemen — a reminder that Republicans do not have a monopoly on unprepossessing political leaders. Organisation v Motivation Last week in St Louis, Claire McCaskill, the Democrat candidate for the Missouri Senate seat, another crucial target for the party, revved up a group of eager Democrat volunteers. “You have to get all your friends and family to get people to the polls,” she implored them. “Unlike the Republicans, remember, we don’t have a paid workforce to do it for us.” Turnout has supposedly been the Republicans’ secret weapon for years. On Tuesday legions of party employees will mobilise voters in thousands of critical districts from Rhode Island to Pennsylvania to Ohio to Montana. Democrats may not have the money or the network (though they do have energetic union members free to take the day off), but their hope is that their supporters will be so motivated by anger at the direction of the country that they will not need to be coaxed and carted to the polls. In opinion polls, Democrats certainly suggest that they are more enthusiastic about voting this year. Perhaps even more important, independent voters, who are breaking strongly for Democratic candidates in the final days of the election, say that they, too, are fired up. If that translates into votes on election day, no amount of Republican efficiency will save the party from defeat.
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