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Business
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Title: Why Are Oil Prices Rising?
Source: Bloomberg Businnessweek
URL Source: http://www.businessweek.com/blogs/r ... s/2009/05/why_are_oil_pri.html
Published: May 12, 2012
Author: Steve LeVine
Post Date: 2012-03-24 09:06:49 by lucysmom
Keywords: None
Views: 6860
Comments: 45

Many are asking the question about oil prices: Is this deja vu all over again? Didn’t we just go through a several-year run-up in prices based largely not on fundamentals, but on traders bidding them up, ultimately to $147 a barrel? Only then to see them plunge to $32 a barrel?

If one puts stock in the plunge, then there appears to be air in the run-up today to a six-month-high of $60 a barrel. How much is anyone’s guess. The other day, one exceedingly smart oil analyst privately put it in the range of $5 to $10 a barrel.

Here is the case for a price bubble: Oil inventories are at a 19-year high; the U.S. alone has some 1 billion barrels sitting in storage tanks, according to Mark Williams at the Associated Press. Demand for oil is set to fall to its lowest level in five years, says the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The opposite case goes as follow: The market is factoring in expected inflation because of global deficit spending; Chinese investment spending is reviving. Over at Alaron, Phil Flynn says these are also genuine “fundamentals.”

Regardless, there always seems to be reason offered up to trust in a price run-up. After all, markets are all about emotions, as Robert Shiller notes. Yet, there are still sober voices. In my view, the Financial Times’ Chris Flood delivers it straight: Prices are rising because of various types of trading gambles. Flood quotes Mike Wittner, a senior oil analyst at Société Générale saying the following: “Recent price strength is not based on fundamentals, but on financial flows.”

Over at the Oil Drum, Rune Likvern says up to 3 million barrels a day of oil is being bought purely for storage, including on the sea. But he predicts that such purchases – which help to prop up prices – will decline because storage is becoming harder and harder to find; when they do, Likvern says, prices will fall substantially.

It’s a fool’s game to predict oil prices. That doesn’t stop a lot of people, of course, especially the traders.

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#3. To: mcgowanjm (#2)

Hey, spambot, the value of the dollar under your pres'nit has been plummeting. The price 'seems' to change due to the increasing inflation caused by one of your own in DC.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   9:18:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Rudgear (#3)

cgowanjm

Hey, spambot, the value of the dollar under your pres'nit has been plummeting.

Hey, Fu ck stick,

The value of the $ buys you anything anywhere around the world.

Except for the Top 10 oil producers, the USSA has the cheapest gas in the world.

And as I've been saying since Obama picked the EXACT SAME humans as bush43 for Military/Finance

(Goldman not one prosecution to date....Military Stil doin' MyLai's in the afghans;)

Positions.

It's the Party of Property...and ANYTIME you see a Bi Partisan Bill and Congress has less than a 10% approval rating?

Grab your wallet.

See the Latest JOBS bill (Gutting ALL SEC regs for scamming small time investors;) for details.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   9:30:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Rudgear (#3)

The price 'seems' to change due to the increasing inflation caused by one of your own in DC.

How's the price of your home doin?

;}

Getting alot of % on your savings?

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   9:31:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Rudgear (#3)

...the value of the dollar under your pres'nit has been plummeting. The price 'seems' to change due to the increasing inflation...

So then, according to your theory, when the price of a barrel of oil dropped from $147 a barrel to $30 a barrel in 2008, the dollar deflated?

Anyone claiming to be an expert is selling something. I brandish my ignorance like a crucifix at vampires. Aaron Bady

lucysmom  posted on  2012-03-24   9:32:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: mcgowanjm (#5)

How's the price of your home doin?

;}

Getting alot of % on your savings?

Some people fall for the same trick over, and over again.

Anyone claiming to be an expert is selling something. I brandish my ignorance like a crucifix at vampires. Aaron Bady

lucysmom  posted on  2012-03-24   9:35:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: lucysmom (#7)

Article on the JOBS (nothing to do with jobs) Bill says it.

That Congress should've called it:

TASBEM

There's a sucker born every minute...;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   9:37:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: lucysmom (#0)

The problem now, believe it or not, is a glut of oil in the USSA.

Consumption has dropped by 4 MMBD since 2007.

It's going to be difficult to keep the price of oil up high enough to get:

1) Keystone built

to carry oil from

2) Alberta oil dirt that's merely natgas reconstituted.

and

3) Bakken oil shale

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   10:00:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: lucysmom, mcgowanjm (#6)

Four spam posts in a row. Do either of you 'toons post at any other web site or is this the only one which will have you?

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   10:04:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Rudgear (#10)

Four spam posts in a row.

Do you know what 'spam' means?

Cause I don't think it means what you think it does.

;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   10:11:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Rudgear (#10) (Edited)

Yes, they've been lying to you about our energy predicament for 30 years, ever since Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter after the latter tried to tell the country the truth about peak oil. You and everyone else who is now whining about high gasoline prices didn't want to hear it then, and now you're all butt hurt about it.

Do either of you 'toons post at any other web site or is this the only one which will have you?

Do any of your 'rush brothers' care to talk about the price of oil?

See, I don't know about lucysmom, but 'oil' and 'finance' are second nature.

Takes absolutely zero effort to type in info on it.

Care to reply to the

PRICE OF YOUR HOUSE being inflationary?

Of course not.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   10:13:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Rudgear, lucysmom, All (#10)

Do either of you 'toons post at any other web site or is this the only one which will have you?

Go here. Check it out....;}

www.theoilage.com/breaking-news.html

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   10:16:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: mcgowanjm (#12)

I don't listen to Rush. Nitwit. Btw, you still in evacuation mode down there on the Gulf? Still waiting on your progress report.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   10:16:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Rudgear (#10) (Edited)

Four spam posts in a row. Do either of you 'toons post at any other web site or is this the only one which will have you?

Oh My.... aren't we full of ourselves today. Good luck getting your guy elected by calling disagreements and different viewpoints...spam.

But yes this seems to be the only forum that will allow Capitalist Eric to post.

Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET

mininggold  posted on  2012-03-24   11:20:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: mininggold (#15)

How's that multiple personality problem working out for ya? Who is talking about Capitalist Eric? Besides you throwing dust into the air?

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   11:24:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: Rudgear (#14)

I don't listen to Rush. Nitwit.

So you just channel him then. Rube.

Btw, you still in evacuation mode down there on the Gulf? Still waiting on your progress report.

Off subject? While accusing me of ranting?

Like I said, you idea of 'rant' is not what you think it means...;}

Nat Geogarphic:

"Advertise | AdChoices

As they walk the sands of Orange Beach, Alabama, T. Prabhakar Clement and Joel Hayworth have no difficulty finding traces of the Deepwater Horizon disaster—in fact, the Auburn University researchers have a harder time making sure those traces don't stick to their feet.

On a mid-February weekend, oil—in the form of hundreds of sticky tar balls—had washed up all over the beach following a storm the night before..."

And about the evac. The USSA doesn't do evac. Even if a Fukushima happens at say San Onofre.

OR a USbpEcocide with 2 million gal of antifreeze on top.

Gulf Dolphins Exposed to Oil Are Seriously Ill, Agency Says

New York Times (blog)‎ - 20 hours ago By LESLIE KAUFMAN Dolphins in Barataria Bay off Louisiana, which was hit hard by the BP oil spill in 2010, are seriously ill, and their ailments are ...

Dolphins still sick from BP oil spill msnbc.com‎ - 16 hours ago

Keep laughing, yo yo....;} Quarantine with Military roadblocks. You'll die where you stand....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   11:47:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: mcgowanjm (#17)

See? This is the trouble with you and those like you. You know nothing about which you speak or those with whom you speak and assume the world and everyone in it conforms to your baseless assumptions. Your lifetime of lies has left you insane and your posting content and volume prove it beyond any doubt. I always heard a mind was a terrible thing to waste.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   11:53:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: Rudgear (#18)

See? This is the trouble with you and those like you. You know nothing about which you speak

I'll need a source on how you know I'm wrong.

Somebody besides Rush, or Newt....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   11:55:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: Rudgear (#18)

those with whom you speak and assume the world and everyone in it conforms to your baseless assumptions.

I 'assume' this is Planet Hell....;}

And that 80% of humans are sheeple. Constantly checking the wind.

Looking for safety in the middle of the herd, but realizing once there that all the grass has been eaten or trampled.

But there's lions and hyenas out on the edge where the grass is....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   11:57:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: Rudgear (#18)

Your lifetime of lies has left you insane and your posting content and volume prove it beyond any doubt.

Mirror.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   11:58:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: mcgowanjm (#19)

Spam.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   11:58:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: mcgowanjm (#20)

Even more spam.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   11:58:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: mcgowanjm (#21)

Yet even more spam. Do you get paid per post? Like yuklown?

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   11:59:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: Rudgear (#18)

I always heard a mind was a terrible thing to waste.

Well, you heard that right.

But the truth of that was like you walking into a stranger.

You got up, dusted yourself off, and kept walking like nothing had happened....;}

h/t Winston Churchill for that. BTW another racist....they don't all live in Amerika.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:00:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: Rudgear (#22)

Spam.

Your opinion.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:01:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: Rudgear (#23)

Even more spam.

More opinion.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:01:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: Rudgear (#23)

Even more spam.

Most opinion...everyone got one.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:02:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: Rudgear (#24)

Yet even more spam. Do you get paid per post? Like yuklown?

He came after me too.....see what happens?

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:03:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: All (#29)

"We could have collected as many tar balls as we wanted to, from less than 1 centimeter up to 4 centimeters (.4 to 1.6 inches) in diameter," Clement said. "And these are really soft tar balls that are decaying, so there are probably also millions of tiny fragments that we can't even see. I collected over 1,000 tar balls within [an area of] about 10 miles (16 kilometers) in five hours. What does that mean? I don't know. What are the health ramifications? I don't know. But this clearly demonstrates the magnitude of the [ongoing] problem attributable to Deepwater Horizon."-Nat'l Geo

The final bubble....Peak Pollution.

Like hating on minorities while taking their resources.

Everything will be thrown overboard to keep Happy Motoring/Nascar/ Fast Food Nation going.....for a little while longer.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:05:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: mcgowanjm (#29)

ZZZZZzzzz(SNORT)ZZZ(cough)zzzzZz...

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   12:06:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: Rudgear (#31)

It’s hard to imagine how BP’s reputation in the Gulf of Mexico could get any worse, but a hearing in federal court in Houston yesterday proved that anything is possible.

A whistleblower, by way of his attorney, has warned the federal government that if BP’s Atlantis oil platform – the oil giant’s second-largest Gulf producer – is allowed to continue to operate under current conditions, it could result in a “catastrophe at any time” and it could “dwarf” the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

To provide some geographic context, as far as catastrophes go, the Atlantis (see photo below) is operating roughly 150 miles south of New Orleans, which puts it about 100 miles from the spot where BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig exploded and sank to the seafloor in April 2010, triggering the release of more than 200 gallons of crude oil.

From a March 19 Bloomberg report by Laurel Brubaker Calkins and Margaret Cronin Fisk:

BP Plc’s (BP/) Atlantis platform, its second-largest oil producer in the Gulf of Mexico, should be shut down until it’s proven to comply with U.S. safety and environmental laws, a whistle-blower’s lawyer told a judge.

BP misled U.S. offshore regulators to win operating permits for the platform, located about 150 miles (240 kilometers) south of New Orleans, according to the whistle-blower. The facility produced an average of 60,000 barrels of oil daily last year and is capable of producing as much as 200,000 barrels a day, according to data on London-based BP’s website.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-24   12:09:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: mcgowanjm (#32)

Agreed. But Obama, his puppet masters and the complicit neo-con GOP are all paid agents of the one square mile of London, the House of Saud and the international bankers. Thing are just how thy want it and everyone else is terrified of the conspiracy theorist tag. The case is bound over for Judgement Day because people are too frightened or too guilty or enjoying themselves too much to intervene and redirect history.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   12:14:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: mcgowanjm (#30)

Everything will be thrown overboard to keep Happy Motoring/Nascar/ Fast Food Nation going.....for a little while longer.

The oil company trolls believe out of sight, out of mind.

Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET

mininggold  posted on  2012-03-24   12:16:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: mcgowanjm (#11)

Four spam posts in a row.

Do you know what 'spam' means?

Good question, LOL.

Anyone claiming to be an expert is selling something. I brandish my ignorance like a crucifix at vampires. Aaron Bady

lucysmom  posted on  2012-03-24   14:12:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: lucysmom (#35)

If it isn't Miss Personalities.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   14:23:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: Rudgear (#36)

If it isn't Miss Personalities.

To those who know, you look like a fool.

Anyone claiming to be an expert is selling something. I brandish my ignorance like a crucifix at vampires. Aaron Bady

lucysmom  posted on  2012-03-24   14:25:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: lucysmom (#37)

But we all know you ARE a fool. Consistency is so important.

war has to do something for entertainment; the voices in his head aren't speaking to him and his imaginary friends have found reasons not to come over anymore.

Rudgear  posted on  2012-03-24   14:32:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: lucysmom (#35)

Good question, LOL.

ad hominem attack....disinfo....sales pitch....u pic 'em...;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-25   9:30:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: Rudgear, lucysmom, All (#38)

But we all know you ARE a fool. Consistency is so important.

Noting not one post requiring a rudgear 'source'.

Like this:

Reason 1:Embargo of Iranian oil.

Reason 2:Federal Reserve fiancialization putting Zero % rate $$$ into the banksters hands.Whom immediately put the $$$ back into 3% FedRes risk free bondsandinto commodities like oil.Reason

3:Reason 1 & 2 are possible because Peak Oil happened in May of 05.mcgowanjm

Do either of you 'toons post at any other web site or is this the only one which will have you?

Go here. Check it out....;}

www.theoilage.com/breaking-news.html

mcgowanjm

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-25   9:41:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#41. To: mininggold (#34)

The oil company trolls believe out of sight, out of mind.

The truth replaced by Silence is Evil...quote from USSR citizen.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-25   9:43:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#42. To: Rudgear (#33)

Agreed. But Obama, his puppet masters and the complicit neo-con GOP are all paid agents of the one square mile of London, the House of Saud and the international bankers.

I just call it the Top 400....;}. Saves time.

With Israel always in the mix. Kinda like the AustroHungarian Empire.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-25   9:45:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#43. To: All (#42)

Agreed. But Obama, his puppet masters and the complicit neo-con GOP are all paid agents of the one square mile of London, the House of Saud and the international bankers.

I just call it the Top 400....;}. Saves time.

With Israel always in the mix. Kinda like the AustroHungarian Empire.

Which is why I admire Russia.

The Top 400 just can't seem to get a foot hold there....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-03-25   9:52:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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