International News
See other International News Articles
Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012
Source:
[None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Feb 26, 2012
Author: Various
Post Date: 2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone
Keywords: None
Views: 1372788
Comments: 2390
Mcgowinjm Wire Service.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
Comments (1-826) not displayed.
.
.
.
#827. To: All (#826)
"It is the uniqueness, precision and misplaced concreteness of the measure that bother me. I would rather hear risk managers make statements like "at such price in such security A and at such price in security B, we will be down $150,000". They should present a list of such associated crisis scenarios without unduly attaching probabilities to the array of events, until such time as we can show a better grasp of probability of large deviations for portfolios and better confidence with our measurement of "confidence levels". There is an internal contradiction between measuring risk (i.e. standard deviation) and using a tool with a higher standard error than that of the measure itself. " Taleb 1997. If the above had been followed, we wouldn't be facing TOTAL MELTDOWN of our banking system THIS morning.....;}
The risk management objective function is survival, not profits and losses ( see rule-of-thumb 8 ). A trader according to the Chicago legend, "made 8 million in eight years and lost 80 million in eight minutes". According to the same standards, he would be, "in general", and "on average" a good risk manager. I’m still in a tryptophan coma, but here’s a timely mention of the story of the turkey from Nassim Taleb’s book The Black Swan which I am (supposed to be) reading. The following excerpt is taken from the transcript of a Charlie Rose interview. —— CHARLIE ROSE: And what is the story of the turkey? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: In the book, I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement. So it’s fed for 1,000 days… CHARLIE ROSE: Gets fatter and fatter and fatter. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Fatter and fatter. On the day when its comfort will be at its maximum, there is going to be a surprise. There will be a surprise for the turkey. CHARLIE ROSE: Yes. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: There will be a surprise for the turkey’s economics department, all those Ph.D.’s. Will it be — after all, there’s maximum (inaudible)… CHARLIE ROSE: But it’s not a surprise for the butcher, is it? NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Not a surprise for Charlie Rose as well. Not a surprise for humans. It’s a surprise for the turkey. So the whole idea here is we are not to be a turkey.
Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan ARE the turkey. Happy TurkeyDay, Jamie!!!!...Lulz...8D
Now the question is, WTF did the top of the Ponzi Bondholders actually GET the money to loan to you? At some point, it had to be Borrowed into existence with the Central Bank creating the currency. So if you are close enough connected to the center of this, you can Borrow money at very low interest directly from Da Fed to then go and loan at higher interest to somebody else and collect on the spread between those rates. This is bad enough, but the evolution of Derivatives made it even worse, because lots of Banking Houses could create financial instruments like CDS and CDO without ever actually borrowing money from Da Fed to do it. These instruments represent Trillions if not Quadrillions of Dollars of debt obligations that cannot be paid off unless Da Fed goes ahead on a Printing Spree that would make the current one look like a Sunday Picnic. Needless to say, I don’t think the Political Will is there to do that kind of printing, it would totally destroy the currency and that is not in the interest of the people who hold all the Bonds. The trick here is to keep the House of Cards standing so these instruments do not trip. However, as the debt problem moves up the line to bigger and bigger Sovereigns (next up, Spain and CA), just the amounts necessary to make them nominally solvent is probably beyond the political will of the Banks, and most certainly against the political will of the populations that are forced into Austerity. So at some point here the Ponzi will collapse. -hat4uk
Taleb: Nor am I swayed with the usual argument that the VAR' s wide-spread use by financial institutions should give it a measure of scientific credibility. Banks have the ingrained habit of plunging headlong into mistakes together where blame-minimizing managers appear to feel comfortable making blunders so long as their competitors are making the same ones. The state of the Japanese and French banking systems, the stories of lending to Latin America, the chronic real estate booms and bust and the S&L debacle provide us with an interesting cycle of communal irrationality. I believe that the VAR is the alibi bankers will give shareholders (and the bailing-out taxpayer) to show documented due diligence and will express that their blow-up came from truly unforeseeable circumstances and events with low probability - not from taking large risks they did not understand. But my sense of social responsibility will force me to menacingly point my finger. I maintain that the due-diligence VAR tool encourages untrained people to take misdirected risk with the shareholder's, and ultimately the taxpayer's, money.
Copyright 1997 by Nassim Taleb. That's....Wait for IT....15 Years ago. That's how long, at least, that us Dirty Fuckin hippies have been yelling this warning. Maybe we shoulda been whisperin' instead....;}
Jesse over on Café Americain makes the Hypothesis that Da Fed is sufficiently in control of all of this that they can manage a controlled Stagflation, but to me this begs the question of what is going on all around the World all tied to the Dollar as World Reserve Currency. While here in the FSofA we might be able to withstand a Slow Boiled Frog effect of say a 10% yearly Inflation of Prices while Wages Deflate at 10% and not run up into a Rock/Hard Place situation for 5 years, that is not the case for all the impoverished countries around the world where people live on $2/day and 90% of their income goes to just buying enough Rice to make it to tomorrow." -hat4uk
"Options may or may not deliver an estimation of the consensus on volatility and correlations. We can compute, in some markets, some transition probabilities and, in some currency pairs with liquid crosses, joint transition probabilities (hence local correlation). We cannot, however, use such pricing kernels as gospel. Option traders do not have perfect foresight, and, as much as I would like them to, cannot be considered prophets. Why should their forecast of the second moment be superior to that of a forward trader's future price ?" -Taleb We're now at least $1.75 Quadrillion in Synthetic Debt Derivatives later. JPMorgan holds over $90 Trillion of this vaporware....;}.... more than the COMBINED WORLD GDP. Been arguing this point since 1982....;}
"As long as Da Fed is “managing” a steady inflation, these folks ($2/day/90% of income goes to enough RIce to make it to tomorrow;) are going to be quickly (if they are not already there) in a position where they simply cannot afford to buy enough food to eat. If they are in a location where there is no Oil, it’s a Humanitarian Crisis but we don’t send in the Marines. If it is a location where there IS Oil, we clearly DO send in the Marines to try to secure the Oil Fields.
We also have to send Food Aid to the faction that will line up with us for the moment, and arm them with AR-15s and RPGs at the very least to try to take back control.
That problem is difficult enough by itself to manage, but on top of that you have all these Wars breaking out in marginal countries, and you also have your Natural Disasters like Tsunamis messing up Production out of Japan and Cyclones turning part of Australia into an Inland Sea and now apparently non-stop Tornadoes taking out Airports like Lambert in St Louis. How many of you noted the story in the Newz that Shillary Clinton was in Japan promoting a “Private/Public” Partnership to help the Japanese rebuild? She was joined by Chamber of Commerce Big Wigs from Nippon and the FSofA, basically BEGGING people not to Abandon Japan. You have to KNOW they are doing this because companies are EVACUATING Tokyo in droves.
"I only see one use of covariance matrices: in speculative trading, where the bets are on the first moment of the marginal distributions, and where operators rely on the criticized "trader lore" for higher moments. Such technique, which I call generalized pairs trading, has been carried in the past with large measure of success by "kids with Brooklyn accent". A use of the covariance matrix that is humble enough to limit itself to conditional expectations (not risks of tail events) is acceptable, provided it is handled by someone with the critical and rigorous mind that develops from the observation of, and experimentation with, real-time market events. " www.fooledbyrandomness.com/jorion.html EXACTLY what I was doing until driven off the ranch by Synthetic Debt Derivative 'options' trading circa Reagan/Greenspan....;}
WTF is going to stay in Tokyo with an Office when they can move it over to Taiwan or Shanghai or Hong Kong or Singapore? The Nip Goobermint is now talking about a “6-9 Month” period to get some control over the reactors. No actual plan here for doing so, but this is the spin. Even if it was only 6-9 months, who would stay there while they figure it out?
Our standard of living will approach that of the current 3rd World. This is inevitable now, its just a question of how long it will take to slide down and how the society will adjust to the new reality.
Here is the good news: we are 100.4% certain JPM was the ONLY prop trading bank to be massively, massively short IG9-18 into this epic blow out. Because if other had suffered billion dollar losses, they would all pull a Jamie Dimon and fess up. Right?
Warning: This commentary is not for the faint of heart. I thought I'd start this particular Monday morning, May the 14th, with a little rant. Sometimes it helps to ditch the uber-rational, cool-headed analysis and remind people just how screwed up things are on this third toxic landfill from the Sun. BUWHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ....8D
Just checking in Jim; I had 'puter problems for several days and now I'm connected again. I'm excited to see Saturday's Preakness.
If you were a Muslim terrorist seeking retribution for Washington’s crimes, would you try to smuggle aboard an airliner a bomb in your underwear or shoe in order to blow up people whose only responsibility for Washington’s war against Muslims is that they fell for Washington’s propaganda? If you wanted to blow up the innocent, wouldn’t you instead place your bomb in the middle of the mass of humanity waiting to clear airport security and take out TSA personnel along with passengers? Terrorists could coordinate their attacks, hitting a number of large airports across the US at the same minute. This would be real terror. Moreover, it would present TSA with an insolvable problem: how can people be screened before they are screened? Or coordinated attacks on shopping malls and sports events? Why should terrorists, if they exist, bother to kill people when it is easy to cause mayhem by not killing them? There are a large number of unguarded electric power substations. Entire regions of the country could be shut down. The simplest disruptive act would be to release large quantities of roofing nails in the midst of rush hour traffic in Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco. You get the picture: thousands and thousands of cars disabled with flat tires blocking the main arteries for days. Before some reader accuses me of giving terrorists ideas, ask yourself if you really think people so clever as to have allegedly planned and carried out 9/11 couldn’t think of such simple tactics, plots that could be carried out without having to defeat security or kill innocent people? My point isn’t what terrorists, if they exist, should do. The point is that the absence of easy-to-do acts of terrorism suggests that the terrorist threat is more hype than reality. Yet, we have an expensive, intrusive security apparatus that seems to have no real function except to exercise power over American citizens. Paul Craig Roberts EXACTLY.....BOO
As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend. -Proverbs 27:17 (NKJV)
As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend. -Proverbs 27:17 (NKJV)
Thanx for the lead in to talk about Israeli's at the USSA tit....;} H.R. 4133, the United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012, was introduced into the House of Representatives of the 112th Congress on March 5 “to express the sense of Congress regarding the United States-Israel strategic relationship, to direct the president to submit to Congress reports on United States actions to enhance this relationship and to assist in the defense of Israel, and for other purposes.” The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) reportedly helped draft the bill, and its co-sponsors include Republicans Eric Cantor and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Democrats Howard Berman and Steny Hoyer. Hoyer is the Democratic whip in the House of Representatives, where Cantor is majority leader. Ros-Lehtinen heads the Foreign Affairs Committee. The House bill basically provides Israel with a blank check drawn on the U.S. taxpayer to maintain its “qualitative military edge” over all of its neighbors combined. It requires the White House to prepare an annual report on how that superiority is being maintained. The resolution passed on May 9 by a vote of 411–2 on a “suspension of the rules,” which is intended for non-controversial legislation requiring little debate and a quick vote." The AustroHungarian Empire could only dream of having the KAiser do the same....And history calls THAt a blank cheque....LMFAO A Congress with a 10% Approval cast a 411-2 vote for Israel....8D Feel like a Third World Country yet?
Wondered why RedLeg checked in. Seems if anyone but me posts here, it gets checked.....;} Still going with Bodemeister.
So what happens when a major retailer hires a CEO away from a personal electronic conglomerate who has no experience in retail? This, as reported by Market Watch: J.C. Penney Co. said on Tuesday that it swung to a first-quarter loss of $163 million, or 75 cents a share, from a profit of $64 million, or 28 cents, a year earlier. Sales fell 20% to $3.15 billion. On an adjusted basis, the company said it lost 25 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimated the Plano, Texas-based company to lose 1 cent a share on sales of $3.45 billion. Comparable store sales tumbled 19%, also missing estimates.
I don;t think JPM's gotten out of their position yet. But I do think the FedRes is doing all in their power to cover....;}
The problem with bank runs is that once they start, they don't stop. Look forward to not hearing a WORD about any bank runs anywhere. Except for maybe our closest colonies....and there will have to be video.... like say the Brits... "Machine-guns will for the first time be toted by guards on the London tube. Police special forces, "trained to kill", will wear balaclavas to avoid identification. There are to be naval landing craft roaming the coast off Weymouth and submarines at the ready. The Olympics have become a festival of the global security industry, with a running and jumping contest as a sideshow. No one in government dares call a halt. Nero in his prime could not have squandered so much money on circuses. O Boy! Walking past Mask wearing Mercs with shoot to kill mentality on the way to Fun& Games.... sounds like Berlin 1936 on steroids....8D
Silver's $2 away from a 50% retracement and the Conventional Wisdom is that the Bull Market for PM's is STILL intact....;} And oil. And cotton....not so much....;} Mr Margin Calling on Line 1, sir. Says it's urgent....
Now Simulposting TM to me...;} at
The MSM should stop harping on Greece, its done. The real story is what will Greece's bust bring about. Watch MET and PRU now. They're in the vortex.
Lone speed...looks like a good bet. Morning Line odds 8/5 aren't generous though. Best of luck!
An interesting world you live in:) However, when I think things are "normal" I just check in here to see what you have to post. BTW, the weather cooled down quite a bit in Central TX.
As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend. -Proverbs 27:17 (NKJV)
It's cooler here in Kentucky. I'm heading to the track for a few races.
Add in the silent boycott of Christians against JCP taking on Ellen Degenerate their spokesman.
As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend. -Proverbs 27:17 (NKJV)
Not a horse racing fan like my brother. When is the next leg of the triple crown?
As iron sharpens iron, So a man sharpens the countenance of his friend. -Proverbs 27:17 (NKJV)
The Preakness this Saturday...about 6:30 pm I think. mcgowanjm is picking Bodemeister. At the moment I like the long shot, Cozzetti.
Who's running the show. Whoever came up with the term: 'accelerated withdrawals' to describe Spain/Greece Bank Runs....;} By The Washington Post Published: May 17, 2012 Updated: May 17, 2012 - 12:00 AM » Comments | Post a Comment ATHENS, Greece -- With Greece's future in the euro increasingly in doubt, the troubled nation cobbled together an emergency government on Wednesday and set a date for new elections amid fears that accelerated withdrawals by spooked depositors could escalate into a run on the banks.
I'm gay....;}
And Pagan Gnostic....;}
And this is Planet Hell.....;} Thu May 17, 2012 8:03am EDT (Reuters) - A spreading bank run could hasten Greece's exit from the euro zone but it certainly doesn't have to end that way. It is far less clear what the impact would be should the wave of withdrawals accelerate in other peripheral states such as Spain or Portugal, which are further from outright revolt over German-led austerity, and which, due to their sheer size, will enjoy a vastly improved negotiating position. Reuters/Washington Post: Who came up with the Orwellian term: 'accelerated withdrawal' to describe a bank run...LMFAO He's not dead, little girl, he's just sleeping for a long time.....8D
And Pagan Gnostic....;} LOL! I KNEW IT!
I would like a complete clear-out of all those politicians still hooked on the lazy, mendacious, and altogether unimaginative habit of saying “Let me be clear (about this)”. Not only that, as there is obviously no clear blue water between any of the buggers on this issue, I wish to make clear that there is clearly a very strong chance that a clear majority of politicians may fall victim to my let-me-be-clear-seeking sledgehammer, club or truncheon. Because it’s important to clear up any misunderstanding about just how clear-air-headed these clear-drivelling idiots are going to be if they persist in claiming to be clear when it is abundantly clear that their objective is to be a clear as mud that has had every scintilla of clarity removed from it by a clearance specialist.....;} -hat4UK
Comments (867 - 2390) not displayed.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#828. To: All (#827)
#829. To: All (#828)
#830. To: All (#829)
#831. To: All (#830)
#832. To: All (#831)
#833. To: All (#832)
#834. To: All (#833)
(Edited)
#835. To: All (#834)
#836. To: All (#835)
#837. To: All (#836)
#838. To: All (#837)
(Edited)
#839. To: All (#838)
#840. To: All (#839)
#841. To: A K A Stone (#0)
#842. To: All (#841)
#843. To: mcgowanjm (#842)
#844. To: All (#39)
And then the wo/man calmly walked out the front door, got in a car, and drove away, telephoning the Taliban to report FOUR men killed....;}
#845. To: mcgowanjm (#664)
#846. To: Fred Mertz (#843)
#847. To: redleghunter (#845)
#848. To: Fred Mertz (#843)
Just checking in Jim; I had 'puter problems for several days and now I'm connected again. I'm excited to see Saturday's Preakness.
#849. To: All (#848)
#850. To: All (#849)
#851. To: All (#850)
#852. To: All (#850)
#853. To: A K A Stone (#0)
#854. To: All (#853)
#855. To: mcgowanjm (#848)
Still going with Bodemeister.
#856. To: mcgowanjm (#847)
#857. To: redleghunter (#856)
#858. To: mcgowanjm (#849)
#859. To: Fred Mertz (#857)
It's cooler here in Kentucky. I'm heading to the track for a few races.
#860. To: redleghunter (#859)
#861. To: A K A Stone (#0)
#862. To: redleghunter (#858)
#863. To: redleghunter (#858)
#864. To: All (#863)
#865. To: mcgowanjm (#862)
I'm gay....;}
#866. To: All (#864)
.
.
.
[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Mail] [Sign-in] [Setup] [Help] [Register]