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Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Feb 26, 2012
Author: Various
Post Date: 2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone
Keywords: None
Views: 1374723
Comments: 2390

Mcgowinjm Wire Service.

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


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      .
      .
      .

#775. To: A K A Stone (#0)

SURPRISE

[After Hours: 37.95-2.79 (-6.85%) 6:49P EST]

http://www.barchart.com/cache/ab...a5e3a6d9cd42d51d7cd9a.png

JPMorgan has $2 billion trading loss, reputation hit

What reputation was that? It called Geithner and the US treasury cut a check.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-10   19:10:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#776. To: A K A Stone (#0)

Also down by 4% to a mere $4.6bn were JP Morgan’s profits. While wondering how on earth they were going to manage on that going forward, my eye fell across a piece in the Journal telling how five US equity investment firm owners would be taking home a bonus of $94m each at the end of March. Bruce Willis diverting that asteroid and dying in the process…that made him worth $94m for the job. But nobody else is worth $94m for a year’s work. Nobody. And anyone who thinks so is a sadly damaged human being."

From February, 2012 -hat4uk

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:45:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#777. To: All (#776)

Homo sapiens does not have the ability to make fundamental changes in its behavior. Nor is Homo sapiens much interested in the truth about itself.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:46:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#778. To: All (#777)

All those fake numbers being put out by Wall Street, the government and CNBC showing magical growth on the Ponzi paper digit (Alice in Wonderland) side of the equation must be juxtaposed against the real world manufacturing economy that has been in decline for 30 years.

This is the 30 year digital/Ponzi-paper inflation crescendo that has finally crested and, like an ocean wave, will curl over and break. This is also the 30 year engineered interest rate decline that has finally reached its nadir, 0%!

fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/09/end-of-currency.html

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:50:21 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#779. To: A K A Stone, All (#778) (Edited)

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:53:02 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#780. To: All (#779)

Let me try and rationalise that apparently intolerant statement. Had anyone come to me in corporate life and said they needed $94m to stay interested in the business, I’d have expressed sympathy for their plight, and fired them. $94m isn’t a bonus, it’s a bonanza leveraged into a bazooka for a bonehead who somehow puts a value on the ownership of meaningless amounts of money. Except, of course, money brings power – and that’s what these reptiles really want.

Note the reptile 'thinking' reference.....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:54:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#781. To: All (#780)

What did I say at the top? "Rising demand for easy money causes rising interest rates..." So what does a zero Fed Funds rate say? Zero demand for worthless money? I don't know. You tell me.

Here is what I see: 30 years of digital/financial Ponzi-paper inflation has gradually decreased the efficiency of all capital investment, everywhere! Mal-investment is so ubiquitous now that it cannot even be distinguished! Confidence in the future is at an ALL TIME LOW! And mass-confusion about inflation, deflation, stagflation, etc... is at an ALL TIME HIGH! We have truly built our own Tower of Babel!

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:55:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#782. To: All (#781)

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_cvdgPlEKW9k/SqRnntuJ1KI/AAAAAAAAArQ/H7uQrGQFhMM/s400/Down.jpg

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:57:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#783. To: All (#781)

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   7:58:15 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#784. To: All (#783)

And so we come roundabout to today's news of JP MORGAN.

The Greatest bank in the USSA.

Normally a 6% drop in a stock is underwhelming.

But in JPM's case we have the Inverted Pyramid above.

That IS JPMorgan's Strategic Play.

There's a very good reason you don;t see Inverted Pyramids in Nature.

They're extremely unstable.

A gust of wind and they topple.

JPM just experienced a gentle gust.....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   8:28:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#785. To: All (#784)

"The two reasons I’m rarely satirical about neocon economics is (a) it’s bad form, and lousy sport, to shoot ducks in a barrel; and (b) the effects of such braindead thinking are every bit as destructive as the ramblings of old Beardy Marx. This stuff can be funny – up to a point. After that point, it’s damned irritating…especially if you’re one of the poor folks. Ronald Reagan remains one of the most revered US Presidents because he cut taxes to create super-wealth which, he said, would trickle down. Well, it didn’t: it gushed upwards into f**kwitted $94m bonuses. "

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   8:30:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#786. To: A K A Stone (#0)

The problem for JPM is it was the flagship for carrying the massive market manipulation that began the day before Thanksgiving Week end.

And now that 'zombie' trendline has been busted all to hell.

The Techy term is the 200 Day MA (Moving Average) has been violated..... :? 8-) :twisted:

Such an innocuous term 'violated'.

www.barchart.com/cache/44...d1b45efc805b4ca4c63a3.png

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   9:57:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#787. To: A K A Stone (#0)

11 May 2012 JP Morgan Failure Shows the Incompetency of the Fed As Regulator And a Corrupted Government

The spin machine is revving up, and the spokesmodels are gesticulating wildly, in an effort to direct and deflect this failure of governance at JPM.

See how manfully Jamie Dimon has come clean on this. And look how well the Fed's capital standards are protecting us from a failure at JPM because of this unfortunate but 'manageable' trading mistake. This will be a buying opportunity!

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-11   10:59:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#788. To: A K A Stone (#0)

HSBC has a derivative exposure of $4.321 Trilion dollars. HSBC is a Hong Kong based bank and its original name is The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited.

You will find HSBC working a lot with JP Morgan Chase.

Both HSBC and JP Morgan Chase have strong interest in gold & precious metals. HSBC and JP Morgan Chase are often involved together in financial scandals.

Lately HSBC has been sued for allegedly funneling more than $8.9 billion to the largest ponzi-scheme in history - Bernie Maddof's investment business. HSBC (along w/ JP Morgan Chase) has been sued for alleged conspiracy suppressing the price of silver and gold, partially through precious metal DERIVATIVES and making billions of dollars on it.

State of Hawaii is suing HSBC (and other banks) for deceptive credit card lending practices. DZ Bank in Germany is suing HSBC (and JP Morgan) for deceptive (lying) practices when selling home-loan-backed securities.

HSBC is also under investigation for laundering billions of dollars. Bank of New York Mellon - Derivative Exposure Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has a derivative exposure of $44.192 Trillion dollars. The $1 Trillion pillars towers are double-stacked @ 930 feet (248 m). The White House is standing next to the Statue of Liberty.

Goldman Sachs has advantage over other banks because it has awesome connections in US Government. A lot of former Goldman employees hold high-level US Government positions (chart).

Mitt Romney's top donor is Goldman Sachs, and one of Obama's best donors. Ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs, Hank Paulson became the Secretary of Treasury under Bush and during the 2008 financial crisis authored the TARP bill demanding $700 billion bail-out.

In UK, Goldman Sachs escaped £10 million bill on a failed tax avoidance scheme with help of good connections. The bank is the largest player in the food commodities market, earned $955m from food speculation in 2009" - That's your $$$.

Goldman Sachs employees are arming themselves with guns in case there is a populist uprising against the bank. Goldman Sachs calls their investors "muppets". and use clients to make money for themselves, disregarding the clients.

The bank was fined $22 million for sharing valuable nonpublic information with top clients (Think insider trading with best clients). Goldman Sachs was part-owner America's leading website for prostitution ads until the ownership stake was exposed.

Goldman Sachs helped Greece conceal its debt with secret loans, while simultaneously taking advantage of Greece. Goldman Sachs got a $814 billion SECRET bailout from the Federal Reserve during the 2008 crisis.

Goldman Sachs got $10 billion of the 2008 TARP bailout, and in the same year paid $10.9 billion in employee compensation and "benefits", while paying a tax rate of 1%. That means an average of $327,000 to each Goldman Sach's employee.

Just sayin'.....;}

-Demon ocracy.....the Rule of Demons

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   7:41:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#789. To: All (#788)

JP Morgan Chase (JPM)

JP Morgan Chase has a derivative exposure of $70.151 Trillion dollars. $70 Trillion is roughly the size of the entire world's economy. The $1 Trillion dollar towers are double-stacked @ 930 feet (248 m).

JP Morgan is rumored to hold 50->80% of the copper market, and manipulated the market by massive purchases. JP Morgan (JPM) is also guilty of manipulating the silver market to make billions.

In 2010 JP Morgan had 3 perfect trading quarters and only lost money on 8 days. Lawsuits on home foreclosures have been filed against JP Morgan. Aluminum price is manipulated by JP Morgan through large physical ownership of material and creating bottlenecks during transport. JP Morgan was among the banks involved in the seizure of $620 million in assets for alleged fraud linked to derivatives.

JP Morgan got $25 billion taxpayer in bailout money. It has no intention of using the money to lend to customers, but instead will use it to drive out competition.

The bank is also the largest owner of BP - the oil spill company. During the oil spill the bank said that the oil spill is good for the economy. JP Morgan Chase also received a SECRET $391 billion dollar bailout from the Federal Reserve.

In 2012, JP Morgan (JPM) took a $2 billion loss on "Poorly Executed" Derivative Bets. Bank of New York Mellon - Derivative Exposure 9 Biggest Banks' Derivative Exposure - $228.72 Trillion

Note the little man standing in front of white house. The little worm next to lastfootball field is a truck with $2 billion dollars.

There is no government in the world that has this kind of money. This is roughly 3 times the entire world economy. The unregulated market presents a massive financial risk. The corruption and immorality of the banks makes the situation worse.

If you don't want to bank with these banks, but want to have access to free ATM's anywhere-- most Credit Unions in USA are in the CO-OP ATM network, where all ATM's are free to any COOP CU member and most support depositing checks. The Credit Unions are like banks, but invest all their profits to give members lower rates and better service. They don't have shareholders to worry about or have derivatives to purchase and sell.

Keep an eye out in the news for "derivative crisis", as the crisis is inevitable with current falling value of most real assets. Derivative Data Source: ZeroHedge

demonocracy.info/infograp...atives/bank_exposure.html

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   7:44:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#790. To: All (#789)

Let's see, the average couple is going to need nearly a quarter of a million dollars to cover their health care costs in retirement, and yet half of all American adults have no retirement savings of any kind, let alone for health care.

This will not end well.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   8:05:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#791. To: All (#790)

RawStory: Geraldo Rivera: I was ‘manually raped’ by the TSA Fox News host Geraldo Rivera on Friday claimed that an employee of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) had “manually raped” him and “was getting off on it.”

Then they took the 18 month terrorist baby off the plane.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   8:25:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#792. To: All (#791)

PeakOil.com: OPEC oil production climbs to 31.71 million barrels per day in April | Peak Oil News and Message Boards - The latest Platts’ monthly survey of OPEC production shows two highly significant trends: sanctions are starting to pinch Iranian output, and other OPEC countries are stepping in to fill the gap.

Which means that Non OPEC dropped to 42.5 MMBD.

Because World Production is flat at best....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   8:30:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#793. To: All (#792)

WSJ: Chesapeake Deals Carry $1.4 Billion in Undisclosed Liability - Embattled Chesapeake Energy Corp. has saddled itself with about $1.4 billion of previously unreported liabilities over the next decade through off-balance-sheet financial deals. Most of these costs will hit this year and next, at a time when the company needs to raise substantial cash to cover operating expenses and its move into the more lucrative oil business. Chesapeake, the second-largest natural-gas producer in the U.S., has made a number of long-term commitments to Wall Street banks that require it to deliver specific amounts of oil and natural gas each month through 2022, in exchange for upfront cash.

Thank God, CHK never drilled my land....what a fucked up company riding on a trumped up Gas Bubble....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   8:31:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#794. To: All (#793) (Edited)

Note how the Main Concern is the 'Leak'.

How can the USSA mount successful False Flags if the story gets out before Intel is ready?

LMFAO

"The operation appears to have been a joint venture between the British, Saudi Arabian and U.S. intelligence services, some analysts say, and its exposure in the U.S. media has caused widespread concern in the U.S. intelligence community.

The Saudis and British appear to be concerned too.

"The Saudis are not happy with the leaking of this information," said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst with good contacts among Gulf Arab governments.

"It is potentially harmful for future operations. And it is the Saudis who have the agents on the ground to get these things done."

www.reuters.com/article/2...aks-idUSBRE84A0LK20120511

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   8:36:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#795. To: All (#771)

Financial 'community' now take s41% of ALL USSA profits.

Shake down....organized crime can't compete....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   9:13:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#796. To: A K A Stone (#0)

The Fed Res is doing everything possible to stoke inflation and it's not working.

Debt is being eaten faster.

Deflation roaring.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-12   10:58:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#797. To: A K A Stone (#0)

Another hulking character who identified himself as a member of Unit 51 from the Israeli army’s Golani Brigade paratrooper corps barked at the activists, “The only thing you are is a bunch of traitors. Every day people here are fighting… This is unbelievable. You are traitors and if we had the chance we would shoot you one by one. One by one we would shoot you…”

The demonstration concluded with police violently arresting three participants including one man for the crime of reading aloud the names of destroyed Palestinian villages.

Lia Tarachansky of the Real News Network filmed the melee. Her footage is below:"

And he would. Sharon's buddies would shoot them....;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:31:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#798. To: All (#797) (Edited)

The repression of Zochrot’s educational action was the street level manifestation of the campaign the Israeli government has waged to mute discussion of the Nakba and punish those who violate the code of silence.

Israel’s Education Minister, declared that merely allowing students to learn about the mass expulsion of Palestinians during 1947 and 1948 would encourage them to work against the Jewish state.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:32:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#799. To: All (#798)

“If a person cannot walk into the middle of the town square and express his or her views without fear of arrest, imprisonment, or physical harm,” the book read, “then that person is living in a fear society, not a free society.”

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:34:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#800. To: All (#799) (Edited)

peakoil.com/enviroment/ep...t-used-in-gulf-of-mexico/

i

Quantcast EPA Grossly Misrepresents The Toxicity Of Corexit Used In Gulf Of Mexico EPA Grossly Misrepresents The Toxicity Of Corexit Used In Gulf Of Mexico thumbnail

Quite incredibly, the EPA issued a positive report on May 1, 2012 regarding the safety and toxicity of various dispersants use in the BP Gulf Oil Spill. Included in this assessment was the use of Corexit.

This report “indicated that all eight dispersants had roughly the same toxicity, and all fell into the “practically non-toxic” or “slightly toxic” category. Scientists found that none of the eight dispersants displayed endocrine-disrupting activity of “biological significance.” The same report went on to say that “dispersant-oil mixtures were generally no more toxic to the aquatic test species than oil alone.”

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:37:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#801. To: All (#800)

Hidden Crisis in the GULF. Barbara Wiseman, TEO President, has been an ardent advocate for safer oil remediation measures since the very beginning of this oil spill. She has said that:

“At the beginning of the disaster, TEO investigated to find effective, non-toxic technologies currently available in adequate supply to clean up an oil spill of this size. Once we isolated the best solutions, we then investigated to find what the barriers to getting them implemented were. The barriers have all come down to specific people in the EPA. They are, in effect, holding the Gulf hostage and, for some unexplained reason, won’t let it be cleaned up.”

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:40:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#802. To: All (#801)

A 2nd Anniversary Report on the BP Gulf Oil Spill as follows:

“The toxic dispersants add absolutely nothing to EFFECTIVE RESPONSE. There is no scientific basis for it, and their use violates The Clean Water Act, EPA’s charter and common sense.”

“Corexit’s label clearly states it can cause kidney failure and death and the MSDS (Material Safety Data Sheet) specifically warns, “Do not contaminate surface water” with it. Additionally, toxicity testing in regards to marine species shows little tolerance by all forms of sea life; thus, applying it on spills as a preferred response method increases the toxicity of the spilled oil on which it is used.”

NaturalSociety.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:41:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#803. To: All (#802)

Print Afghan police kill two British soldiers in Helmand Province Sun May 13, 2012 8:50AM GMT Latest reports indicate that members of the Afghan national police force have shot dead at least two British soldiers in the troubled Helmand Province of Afghanistan.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/05/13/240961/afghan-police-kill-two-british-soldiers/

4 US-led soldiers killed in Afghanistan Sat May 12, 2012 3:9PM GMT At least four US-led troops have been killed in separate incidents in Afghanistan in the past 24 hours, as attacks against the United States and its Western allies have increased in the war-wracked country.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:46:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#804. To: All (#803)

WRH

Brave Afghan shoots 12 US-NATO invaders in Kunar Zabihullah Mujahid E-mail Print PDF Friday, 19 Jamadil Akhir 1433 Friday, 11 May 2012 12:59

KUNAR, May 11 – A brave Afghan, apparently working as soldier of puppet forces turned his gun on the US-NATO terrorist troops in the invaders’ army base located in Agam, Ghazi Abad district of Kunar province on Friday, killing as many as 12 US-Nato cowardly troops and wounded a dozen more, a Mujahideen’s official said Friday, adding that the said spirited Afghan had been enlisted in the puppets’ army for the very purpose and after accomplishing his heroic mission joined Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate safe and sound with his machine gun and an American heavy machine gun.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   7:51:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#805. To: All (#804)

Enemy sustain severe losses in Kabul Zabihullah Mujahid E-mail Print PDF Sunday, 21 Jamadil Akhir 1433 Sunday, 13 May 2012 07:01

KABUL, May 13 – Later on Saturday, Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate confronted a great number of the puppets in Sarubi, Kabul, triggering a one-hour fight in which a number of the enemy soldiers got killed and wounded.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   8:00:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#806. To: All (#805)

We’re Fighting in a War We Lost Before the War Began by Phyllis Bennis, May 12, 2012 Print This | Share This

It shouldn’t surprise anyone, but support for the longest U.S. war is dropping further and faster than ever. The latest national U.S. poll, released on May 9, shows 66 percent of Americans are against the war in Afghanistan – with 40 percent "strongly opposed."

We can expect to hear the usual spin, claims that it’s a hard slog but Afghans are still better off and we have to finish what we started.

With all due respect to Phyllis, no one will hear Any spin because none is necessary.

No one is reporting anything about the Afghans. Refute silence? ;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   8:06:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#807. To: All (#806)

If that money ($571 billion according to the National Priorities Project) had not been wasted on the war in Afghanistan since 2001, it could instead have paid for ten years of health care for 12 million low-income people, or hired 840,000 elementary school teachers for ten years, or paid for converting 246 million households to all solar energy for a year."

us spends more in 5 hours on defense than in 5 years on healthcare

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   8:10:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#808. To: mcgowanjm (#807)

us spends more in 5 hours on defense than in 5 years on healthcare

How about 3 hours on offense and 2 hours on defense?

harrowup  posted on  2012-05-13   8:41:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#809. To: All (#807)

The move reveals for the first time the desperation of Mr Cameron, then Leader of the Opposition, and Mr Osborne, to win over the Murdoch empire as they manoeuvred to secure a general election victory.

As the Leveson inquiry prepares to hear more evidence this week about the relations between News International and the Tories, The Independent on Sunday has learnt that Rebekah Brooks and her husband spent a weekend at Dorneywood, the Chancellor's official residence, during a key period in the bid by News Corp to take over BSkyB.

The previously undisclosed "pyjama party", in 2010, which also featured Mr Coulson and his wife, Eloise, will add fuel to demands for the Chancellor to be called to give evidence to Leveson in person.

www.independent.co.uk/new...merons-bluff-7742363.html

The IoS piece goes on to point out that Cameron, Hunt, Brooks and most of Newscorp’s lawyers were more or less sharing bodily fluids nonstop during the crucial BSkyB bid run-up, and even more so once Vince Cable was conveniently pushed out of the juggernaut’s way. In a normal world, there is no way either Hunt or Cameron should survive such a clear case of Prime Ministerial favouritism.

hat4uk.wordpress.com/

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   8:41:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#810. To: harrowup (#808)

How about 3 hours on offense and 2 hours on defense?

Yeah...;}...I was lazy. You caught me.

Edit:

us spends more in 5 hours on War than in 5 years on Healthcare

And War is used when the perps have run out of arguements.

There. Fixed...;}

Thanx, Hup.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   8:44:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#811. To: All (#810)

JP Morgan the majority owner of bp loves the Wars for the Jews.

Even as it desperately tries to stop the bleeding:

#

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mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   8:51:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#812. To: All (#811)

What JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon have absolutely Zero clue about:

Scaling-law relations characterize an immense number of natural processes, prominently in the form of

1. scaling-law distributions, 2. scale-free networks, 3. cumulative relations of stochastic processes.

A scaling law, or power law, is a simple polynomial functional relationship, i.e., f(x) depends on a power of x. Two properties of such laws can easily be shown:

* a logarithmic mapping yields a linear relationship, * scaling the function’s argument x preserves the shape of the function f(x), called scale invariance.

See (Sornette, 2006).

Scaling-Law Distributions Scaling-law distributions have been observed in an extraordinary wide range of natural phenomena: from physics, biology, earth and planetary sciences, economics and finance, computer science and demography to the social sciences; see (Newman, 2004). It is truly amazing, that such diverse topics as

* the size of earthquakes, moon craters, solar flares, computer files, sand particle, wars and price moves in financial markets,

* the number of scientific papers written, citations received by publications, hits on webpages and species in biological taxa,

* the sales of music, books and other commodities,

* the population of cities,

* the income of people,

* the frequency of words used in human languages and of occurrences of personal names,

* the areas burnt in forest fires,

are all described by scaling-law distributions. First used to describe the observed income distribution of households by the economist Pareto in 1897, the recent advancements in the study of complex systems have helped uncover some of the possible mechanisms behind this universal law. However, there is as of yet no real understanding of the physical processes driving these systems.

AND

For how long have we known about the fat tails?

"Heavy tails: the (unconditional) distribution of returns seems to display a power-law or Pareto-like tail, with a tail index which is finite, higher than two and less than five for most data sets studied.

In particular this excludes stable laws with infinite variance and the normal distribution. However the precise form of the tails is difficult to determine."

Cont (2001) # MANTEGNA, R.N. and H.E. STANLEY, 1999. Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance. books.google.com. "The degree of leptokurtosis is much larger for high-frequency data (Fig. 8.2)." Mantegna and Stanley (2000)

What JP Morgan's MANY theoreticians are desperately trying to wrap their heads around at this very moment:

"However the precise form of the tails is difficult to determine."

LMFAO

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   9:08:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#813. To: All (#812)

"The main concepts that are needed to understand stock markets are imitation, herding, self-organized cooperativity and positive feedbacks, leading to the development of endogenous instabilities. According to this theory, local effects such as interest raises, new tax laws, new regulations and so on, invoked as the cause of the burst of a given bubble leading to a crash, are only one of the triggering factors but not the fundamental cause of the bubble collapse. We propose that the true origin of a bubble and of its collapse lies in the unsustainable pace of stock market price growth based on self-reinforcing over-optimistic anticipation. As a speculative bubble develops, it becomes more and more unstable and very susceptible to any disturbance."

Jamie Dimon, the king of controlled risk, just now hearing about any of this

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   9:16:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#814. To: All (#813)

www.er.ethz.ch/essays/marketcrashes

"statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the “logic of science”; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can’t be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but… let’s not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you.

In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let’s face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system)."

www.zerohedge.com/contrib...everyone+drops+to+zero%29

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-05-13   9:18:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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