Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012 Source:
[None] URL Source:[None] Published:Feb 26, 2012 Author:Various Post Date:2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone Keywords:None Views:1374509 Comments:2390
Jun 15, 2012 And of course you know Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor ... so this is a chance for the two leaders to check signals about the summit agenda. .... as over-the-counter derivatives and cross-border bank resolution.
7 hours ago Armed gangs fighting against the government of Syrian President Bashar ... This operation, let us call it the Ben Rhodes operation, I am sure that this is ... but operation Ben Rhodes, according to my count has been operational ...
This early anomaly drop below 2 million sq. km. is significant for several reasons.
Back in 2007, you had all sort of people, both AGW skeptics, as well those who should know better, suggest that 2007 was simply an aberration, or a "one off" event caused by the "perfect storm" of conditions-- meaning of course that there was not a long-term dynamic going on that should have caused 2007's rather dramatic decline. Then we saw slightly higher minimums in 2008 and 2009, leading some to suggest a "recovery" was underway. Folks like Joe Bastardi were even predicting that we'd see a return to the sea ice condtions of the 1970's. What we've seen indicated in 2010, 2011, and now 2012, is that 2007 was not an aberration in the black swan sense, but in the dragon-king sense. A black swan is a simple aberration that is highly improbable, but still can occur with the right set of circumstances. A dragon-king event is a tipping-point event that indicates that some new regime has begun. 2007 indicated that the Arctic sea ice had entered a new regime, and the much lower lows were coming sooner than any of the models had shown as possible.
How could the models have been so wrong? First, models cannot really predict dragon-king events. The prediction of a regime change for a dynamic non-linear system simply can't be shown in models. Obviously one of the missing ingredients of the models is a full accounting of all ways that energy enters the Arctic and affects the total volume of sea ice. The net energy flow to the Arctic has been increasing for many years through multiple channels, some of which have strongly interacting positive feedback processes. 2007 represented a cascading series of feedbacks that brought about the extremely low years. Even thought the energy mix between 2007 and 2012 is different, the net energy flow and total enthalpy of the Arctic changed to a new regime in 2007 and has been increasing ever since. The upshot of all this is that 2012 is continued confirmation that 2007 was not a black swan, but a dragon-king. 2012 is in the direct line of inheritance from that dragon-king and the new regime that is rapidly becoming apparent in the Arctic. The years prior to 2007 were the set-up for the entrance of the dragon-king. 2007 was the dragon-king, and 2012 is proving to be of royal blood.
Note: Understanding the difference between dragon-king events and black swan events is critical on a planet possibly undergoing as rapid of changes as we might see in the next years, decades, and centuries (depending of course on what we humans do.) Spotting simple on-off extremely unlikely events versus true regime-change or tipping point events is of key importance. Suggested reading:
To penalize war criminal Dostam will be a great step towards insuring social justice! - E-mail Print PDF Friday, 01 Ramadan 1433 Friday, 20 July 2012 08:55
1-ghThose who oppress the aggrieved, verily sees admonitory punishment for their oppression. Taken from the Pharaoh of the sons of Israel to the Pharaoh (Abu Jihl-the father of ignorance) all of them have seen different retributions for their cruelties. Allah has taken severe revenge on them all the times and has healed the hearts the aggrieved ones by destroying the tyrants and this sequence is going on likewise.
Every member of our exasperated nation knows Dostam as a despotic, cruel, tyrant, cannibal, man-killer and the murderer of Afghans. He was not only a stooge in the hands of foreigners during the then Soviet Union tyrannical invasion but also martyred a great number of innocent Afghans to defend the invaders. He made them defective and wounded. He killed a large number of youth, widowed the woman and orphaned the children. He is the ruthless beast who was heading the special barbaric militia, who was internationally well known for their robbery, looting and massacre. They knew no Afghan honor or reputation nor any zeal, courage or manliness. They entered the homes of Afghans just like the present savage Americans; used to kill the Afghan infants in their cradles ruthlessly!!!
When the communist regime was collapsed in the capital city Kabul by the grace of Allah Almighty, it was Dostam who started making military alliances for the destruction of this beautiful city. ..."
# # Karzai Restores Gen. Dostum to Position as Army Chief -- News ... http://news.antiwar.com/.../karzai-restores-gen-dostum-to-position-as-army...
Jan 26, 2010 Back again like a bad penny, one of Afghanistan's most notorious warlords, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, has been restored to his position as ... # Clinton, warlord Dostum are honored guests at Karzai fete « RAWA ... http://www.rawa.org/.../runews/.../clinton-warlord-dostum-are-honored-gu...
Nov 19, 2009 On the other side was Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Afghan warlord who's become a ... News from the Revolutionary Association of the Women of ...
Dostum more than any other man in the Afghans benefitted from the tv camera assassination of the
Ahmad Shah Massoud | Afghanistan's Lion of Panjshir http://asianhistory.about.com/.../Biography-Of-Ahmad-Shah-Massoud-Lio...
Biography of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the Lion of Panjshir, the mujahadeen commander ... the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Taliban, and was assassinated by ... Suddenly, the TV camera carried by the "reporters" explodes with terrific ...
How could the models have been so wrong? First, models cannot really predict dragon-king events. The prediction of a regime change for a dynamic non-linear system simply can't be shown in models. Obviously one of the missing ingredients of the models is a full accounting of all ways that energy enters the Arctic and affects the total volume of sea ice. The net energy flow to the Arctic has been increasing for many years through multiple channels, some of which have strongly interacting positive feedback processes. 2007 represented a cascading series of feedbacks that brought about the extremely low years. Even thought the energy mix between 2007 and 2012 is different, the net energy flow and total enthalpy of the Arctic changed to a new regime in 2007 and has been increasing ever since. The upshot of all this is that 2012 is continued confirmation that 2007 was not a black swan, but a dragon-king. 2012 is in the direct line of inheritance from that dragon-king and the new regime that is rapidly becoming apparent in the Arctic. The years prior to 2007 were the set-up for the entrance of the dragon-king. 2007 was the dragon-king, and 2012 is proving to be of royal blood. "
"We develop the concept of ``dragon-kings'' corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of self-organization that are not apparent otherwise from the distribution of their smaller siblings. We present a generic phase diagram to explain the generation of dragon-kings and document their presence in six different examples (distribution of city sizes, distribution of acoustic emissions associated with material failure, distribution of velocity increments in hydrodynamic turbulence, distribution of financial drawdowns, distribution of the energies of epileptic seizures in humans and in model animals, distribution of the earthquake energies). We emphasize the importance of understanding dragon-kings as being often associated with a neighborhood of what can be called equivalently a phase transition, a bifurcation, a catastrophe (in the sense of Rene Thom), or a tipping point. The presence of a phase transition is crucial to learn how to diagnose in advance the symptoms associated with a coming dragon-king."
Friday, July 20, 2012 Jeff Masters: Record warmth at the top of Greenland Ice Sheet by Jeff Masters, WunderBlog, July 18, 2012
The coldest place in Greenland, and often the entire Northern Hemisphere, is commonly the Summit Station. Located at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, 10,552 feet (3,207 meters) above sea level, and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle, Summit rarely sees temperatures that rise above the freezing mark. In the 12-year span 2000-2011, Summit temperatures rose above freezing only four times, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. But remarkably, over the past week, temperatures at Summit have eclipsed the freezing mark on five days, including four days in a row from July 11 to 14. There are actually three weather stations located at the location -- Summit, Summit-US, and Summit AWS. The highest reliable temperature measured at any of the three stations is now the 3.6 °C (38.5 °F) measured on Monday, July 16, 2012, at Summit-US. A 4.4 °C reading at Summit in May 2010 is bogus, as can be seen by looking at the adjacent station. Similarly, a 3.3 °C reading from June 2004 is also bad. Records at Summit began in 1996.
Meantime, preliminary records from NCDC showed 145 high temperature records broken Wednesday and 67 records tied in 23 states: Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Deflation is only bad for those with crushing debts and no ability to borrow more. Since the Federal government (like the government of Japan) can always borrow more, those buying the debt are assured of a low-risk income stream that can then be used to buy other deflating assets.
Everyone assuming the Federal government has the power to create inflation and that inflation is "good" should examine the interests of those who control the government's policies, i.e. those who own the debt.
Put another way: here's what will be scarce: reliable income streams and liquidity.
"At first the Fed used open market operations illegally. It could get away with it because of the connivance of the Treasury in forgetting to collect the penalty. The conspiracy created a fait accompli and, in the end, Congress was forced to legalize the corrosive practice retroactively in 1935 when it amended the Federal Reserve Act.
A bond issuer is short a bond. Unlike a homeowner who takes out a mortgage on his house, a bond issuer cannot simply refinance. If it wants to pay off the debt, it must buy the bonds back in the market, at the current market price.
Lets repeat that. Anyone who issues a bond is short a security and that security can go up in price as well as go down in price.
The newly invented monetary policy of open market operations is responsible for much of the deflationary damage inflicted on the world economy during the Great Depression of the 1930s. It started an avalanche of falling interest rates that soon went out of control. Falling interest rates destroy capital as they increase the burden of debt contracted earlier at higher rates. Perfectly sound businesses fail if their debt burden, through no fault of theirs, exceeds the profitability of deployed capital. The whole process was most insidious. Entrepreneurs did not know what hit them. From one day to the next they found themselves uncompetitive as competitors financed their business at lower rates. They had to lay off their employees. They went bankrupt in droves. Wanton destruction of capital was the main cause of deflation and the Great Depression in the 1930s."
The bottom 50 percent of American households hold just 1.1 percent of the nations wealth, after its share declined steadily following the financial crisis, a report from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service found. The richest one percent, meanwhile, hold 34.5 percent of the wealth, as the chart below shows. The top 10 percents share of wealth has risen over the last two decades, the report found, but it has fallen for households in every group below that."
So our deniers have predicted that since global warming is a hoax, we should not see any warming trend when we look at recorded temperatures across the globe. Our alarmists, of course, predict the opposite. And since both sides agree that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a credible source to rely on for climate science information, we turn to NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine for this online article from June 14, 2012:
The average global temperature (land and ocean) for May 2012 was the second warmest May temperature since recordkeeping began in 1880, and the temperature over land surfaces was the warmest on record for May. May 2012 also marks the 327th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th-century average. The last month with below average temperatures was February 1985. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2012 was more than 1°F above the 20th century average. This was also the 36th consecutive May with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last May with a below-average temperature was May 1976. The global land surface temperature was more than 2°F above the 20th century average, making it the all-time warmest May on record. Most areas of the world experienced much warmer-than-average monthly temperatures, including nearly all of Europe, Asia, northern Africa, most of North America, and southern Greenland.
Of course, since we are now in July, we now have 328 consecutive months of above average temperatures. And next month, it will be 329 and so on.
Dr. Ricky Rood took a look at the odds of registering "327 months in a row above the average temperature of the 20th century."
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE Add to Portfolio (No thanks....got enough junk.....;}
GSPG10YR:IND
7.26700 0.25600 3.65%
"Spanish 10-year bond yields soared to 7.22% intraday on worries the country will be forced to seek a full-fledged sovereign bailout owing to its debt burden. The country announced last weekend that it would cut 56.4 billion euros, $69 billion, from its deficit by 2015 by raising taxes and cutting spending, which sparked public protests.
"The market has priced in the possibility of a full sovereign bailout for Spain, especially since gross domestic product growth for 2013 has been revised down to -0.5% from +0.2%," Kathy Lien, a foreign currency analyst, wrote in http://Forexpros.com."
No attempt is made, or can be made, by official circles to explain or plumb the depths of such social bitterness and pent-up anger. The results would be too damning for those making the study........... ;}
Print Pentagon: Can't confirm Bulgaria bomber was at Guantanamo
By AUSTIN WRIGHT | 7/19/12 1:51 PM EDT
A Pentagon spokesman said Thursday he could not rule out the possibility that a suicide bomber who attacked a group of Israeli tourists in Bulgaria on Wednesday was formerly held by the United States at the Gitmo detention facility in Cuba.
Im aware of reports that were recently seeing out of the region, said Pentagon spokesman George Little. I cannot confirm those reports at this time.
On Thursday, Bulgarian media reports identified the alleged bomber as 36-year-old Mehdi Ghezali, according Israeli media reports. Ghezali, a Swedish citizen, was detained for two years at the U.S. prison at Guantanamo Bay, the Israeli news website, Times of Israel, reported.
In Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah recalled the brotherhood of arms uniting Hezbollah and Syria against Zionist expansionism, and assured the Syrian Army of its support.
The bomb attack was the signal for the second part of the operation. Commandos infiltrated the capital, then attacked various more or less chosen targets. Thus, a group of about a hundred Contras attacked the house adjacent to my apartment in the cry of Allah Akbar. A senior military official resides there. Ten hours of uninterrupted fighting ensued.
Whereas at the beginning of the night, the Army responded with measure , the order was later given to use force without restraint. It was no longer a question of fighting against terrorists destabilizing Syria, but of saving the country facing an undeclared alien invasion.
Aircraft went into action to destroy columns of mercenaries heading to the capital.
By late morning, calm was gradually returning to the city. The Contras and their collaborators were forced to withdraw everywhere. Traffic was resuming on major roads, and checkpoints were installed in the city center. Life was returning to normal. However, we still hear scattered gunfire here and there. Most businesses are closed, and there are long queues outside bakeries.
Everyone expects that the final assault will be launched on the night of Thursday to Friday and all day Friday. There is no doubt that the Syrian army will emerge victorious again, the power relationship being to its advantage. The conscript army is supported by the population, including the domestic political opposition.
As expected, Arabsat and Nilesat had disconnected the Ad-Dunya television signal in the middle of the afternoon. The Twitter account of Ad-Dounia has been hacked by the CIA in order to disseminate false messages announcing a retreat of the Syrian Army.
" Over the last few weeks, a number of my fellow peak oil writers have expressed worries about this outpouring of counterfactual drivel. Myself, I find it a very hopeful sign. What we are seeing is the shattering of the consensus that has excluded any discussion of peak oil from the collective conversation of our time. Plenty of pundits who refused to talk about peak oil at all are now talking about it incessantly. Even though theyre screeching at the top of their lungs that it cant happen, and scrabbling around for any argument, however feeble or blatantly false, they can use to back up that proposition, theyre still talking about it."
we standardly assume that technology solves all problems. I concluded [ in the No Way Out? paper ] that this usually implicit assumption should be tossed out... Amy Jaffe explicitly stated the assumption in an interview on the PBS Newshour. Well, you know, we, in the American public, we are a big believer that there's a science and technology solution to everything everything. So and it was really amazing that the industry we were sort of running out of oil onshore, and the industry was able to go out to the depths of the earth, under the sea, and keep us driving around in our cars. So, to sit here night after night and watch all these scientists unable to close a simple pipeline, even though it's a very complex engineering problem, as a layperson, when you sit here and watch the oil just spewing out of this pipeline... It's just this horror movie, like we cannot believe that there isn't a technology to close this pipeline. And we, as Americans, believe there's a technological solution to everything. And the idea that we're going to have to wait until August for the technological solution, I think it's just got people just gripped in terror. Amy is so terrified by the prospect that technology doesn't solve all problems that she starts repeating herself.
The alert reader will note that I wrote (back in early 2010) that the Assumption of Technological Progress should be tossed out. That usage was disingenuous. I would never use the word "should" today because my view, then and now, is that technological optimism is built right into Homo sapiens. Perhaps I was offering a fig leaf of hope, but I don't do that anymore. I am far more apt to write text like this, which appeared in my post Techno-Optimists Running Wild!
Human love for technology is second only to our love of money. If humans can replace thousands of fellow humans with some machinery which does the same thing those inferior humans were doing, they'll make that "positive" choice in a heartbeat. More money and machines too? You can't beat that!
Let's face it, technology is the only thing Homo sapiens is good at. The historical record makes it entirely clear that humans can't govern themselves, don't understand themselves, and can't change their own fundamental behaviors. For example, they can't just say No when given the opportunity to apply some technology and destroy the lives of all those fellow (albeit inferior) humans just mentioned. Technology is the solution to all problems, even when a problem does not exist, or the technology itself creates far more problems than it solves. Technology Über Alles."
Slaughter In Iraq As 145 Are Killed And 379 More Are Wounded Margaret Griffis
July 22, 2012 - A second day of intensified attacks left at least 145 Iraqis Killed and 379 more wounded. The attacks, mostly bombings, seemed to focus on security personnel in Sunni-dominated areas. Several more bombs were defused, while others exploded without leaving casualties. A large number of attacks and casualties always leads to conflicting figures as separate authorities report different numbers. Also, more casualties are expected in at least Taji where bombs demolished several residential buildings...
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A Note on how even and especially progressive media (USSAMSM simple ignores it;) is Confused about Insurgent Tactics.....
Mainly because it has Internalized the USSA MSM message.
Today there's a lot fewer USSA MErcs patrolling IRaq than there were three days ago.
It is believed that NATO and the Gulf State's FSA terrorist proxies have reached the very limit of their ability to destabilize Syria and the West recognizes the necessity of limited strikes to cripple a Syrian government that remains intact, coherent, and far from "crumbling" as the Western media has tried, but failed to portray. Veteran Indian diplomat, M K Bhadrakumar, wrote as much in his most recent analysis titled, "The rise and fall of Turkey's Erdogan."
However, a pretext for such strikes must be fabricated - and there have been stark warnings from analysts and international press from around the world of a possible false-flag chemical weapons attack staged by NATO and its proxies to be then blamed on the Syrian government, and give NATO, Israel, and the Gulf States the impetus they've sought for a wider military intervention.
The hysterical rhetoric coming from the West is directly proportional to the failing fortunes of their terrorist proxies on the ground across Syria.
Wider UNSC dissension, Turkish offensive against its own "rebels," and Iraq's rejection of latest "Arab League" statement before massive Al Qaeda attacks. by Tony Cartalucci
July 23, 2012 - Scratching just below the surface of the Western media's headlines are stories carrying greater implications - stories the West believes are better left untold.
"Operation Damascus Volcano" Followed Weeks of Warnings of Impending NATO Psy-Op.
Beginning last week, headlines were overrun by a coordinated NATO-backed "Free Syrian Army" (FSA) offensive and an assassination bombing in Damascus, timed so close to each other and the UN Security Council vote on sanctions, the vote was pushed back a day. The attacks dubbed, "Operation Damascus Volcano" were clearly coordinated with the assassination bombing, designed for psychological impact, and when Syrians reacted with resolve, they quickly collapsed.
What went unreported until over a week later, were warnings of a potential NATO psychological warfare operation, matching hijacked satellite channels broadcasting false reports with an initially violent but ultimately futile militant offensive to stampede the Syrian government out of power on a wave of confusion and panic. It appears "Damascus Volcano" was just that operation.
The Western media would not cover this story until a week later, when security operations in Damascus concluded in the favor of the government and Syrian state television repeatedly made warnings to its viewers about further potential disinformation campaigns. Even then, reports were limited to "Tweets" by Western journalists and headlines in China's English news.
"Although unlike HSBC, the NAR's money laundering at least leads to benefits for everyone, in the form of perpetuating the delusion that US real estate is fairly priced in when a few robber barons from around the world become indiscriminate marginal price settlers eager to put their money in the "safety" of the US. And lately, with the latest forced delusion being that US real estate has bottomed and is rising even as the global economy is decelerating at the fastest pace in the past 3 years, the NAR serves a handy purpose: it provides a reflexive way of misrepresenting the underlying trends in real estate, suckering the marginal fool in once again, as it did throughout the period between 2000 and 2007.
Note again how the Recession blamed on 9/11 starts in May... sunken pace of residential construction spending in May was $268 billion essentially the same levels seen in 1997. This profoundly low level of activity is not limited to the residential sector; spending on commercial structures is currently the same as in 1996.
In other words, instead of "housing recovery" a much better phrase would be "the rich are getting richer", and everyone else can go suck a lollipop and watch their wealth evaporate courtesy of Z/NIRP.