Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012 Source:
[None] URL Source:[None] Published:Feb 26, 2012 Author:Various Post Date:2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone Keywords:None Views:1401814 Comments:2390
Post Sat May 26, 2012 8:31 am by mcgowanjm Re: 2012 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2012) Early Release Refer
Picasso Moon wrote:Jeffrey Brown's recent posting also thoroughly trashed EIA numbers, see separate thread.
And Gail Tverberg doesn't get it. Per EnergyBulletin.
Image
Figure 3. Crude oil production vs Brent oil spot price, in US $, based on EIA data.
Even with the higher production in 2012, and with growing “other liquids” production (not shown), crude oil production has not been sufficient to bring oil prices back to the $60 a barrel or less range that we were comfortable with prior to 2006.
She also states:
"According to EIA data, crude oil production in 2005 averaged 73.6 million barrels a day. It has grown very little since then. Crude oil production for 2011 averaged 74.0 million barrels a day. In the first two months of 2012, crude oil production was higher yet, averaging 75.6 million barrels a day."
Bakhtiar: "Once you're pumping flat out, reserves are meaningless.'
And of course never an EROEI breakout of these numbers.
So my SocioPoliticalOilWatershed theory (TM;):
That Every oil discovery/production watershed is marked EXACTLY and INSTANTLY by a SocialPolitical Event.
On the way up the parabolic and so on the way down.
And per Orlov, the 'On the Way Down' part of the curve is going to be messy Non Linear.
Could happen at anytime.
<<
mcgowanjm
VIP VIP
Posts: 4317
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2010 11:23 am
Post Sat May 26, 2012 8:40 am by mcgowanjm Re: 2012 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2012) Early Release Refer I'm thinking of revising my reversion price to $22 the BBL, but I'll stick with my present price of
$40 the BBL until I see how the Non Linear break pans out..... :roll: :twisted: :? 8-)
