Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012 Source:
[None] URL Source:[None] Published:Feb 26, 2012 Author:Various Post Date:2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone Keywords:None Views:1466173 Comments:2390
This early anomaly drop below 2 million sq. km. is significant for several reasons.
Back in 2007, you had all sort of people, both AGW skeptics, as well those who should know better, suggest that 2007 was simply an aberration, or a "one off" event caused by the "perfect storm" of conditions-- meaning of course that there was not a long-term dynamic going on that should have caused 2007's rather dramatic decline. Then we saw slightly higher minimums in 2008 and 2009, leading some to suggest a "recovery" was underway. Folks like Joe Bastardi were even predicting that we'd see a return to the sea ice condtions of the 1970's. What we've seen indicated in 2010, 2011, and now 2012, is that 2007 was not an aberration in the black swan sense, but in the dragon-king sense. A black swan is a simple aberration that is highly improbable, but still can occur with the right set of circumstances. A dragon-king event is a tipping-point event that indicates that some new regime has begun. 2007 indicated that the Arctic sea ice had entered a new regime, and the much lower lows were coming sooner than any of the models had shown as possible.
How could the models have been so wrong? First, models cannot really predict dragon-king events. The prediction of a regime change for a dynamic non-linear system simply can't be shown in models. Obviously one of the missing ingredients of the models is a full accounting of all ways that energy enters the Arctic and affects the total volume of sea ice. The net energy flow to the Arctic has been increasing for many years through multiple channels, some of which have strongly interacting positive feedback processes. 2007 represented a cascading series of feedbacks that brought about the extremely low years. Even thought the energy mix between 2007 and 2012 is different, the net energy flow and total enthalpy of the Arctic changed to a new regime in 2007 and has been increasing ever since. The upshot of all this is that 2012 is continued confirmation that 2007 was not a black swan, but a dragon-king. 2012 is in the direct line of inheritance from that dragon-king and the new regime that is rapidly becoming apparent in the Arctic. The years prior to 2007 were the set-up for the entrance of the dragon-king. 2007 was the dragon-king, and 2012 is proving to be of royal blood.
Note: Understanding the difference between dragon-king events and black swan events is critical on a planet possibly undergoing as rapid of changes as we might see in the next years, decades, and centuries (depending of course on what we humans do.) Spotting simple on-off extremely unlikely events versus true regime-change or tipping point events is of key importance. Suggested reading:
