Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012 Source:
[None] URL Source:[None] Published:Feb 26, 2012 Author:Various Post Date:2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone Keywords:None Views:1293785 Comments:2390
[quote]USDA’s next report on the corn and soybean crop will be Wednesday morning. At 7:30 Central time this morning, the July Supply and demand report will be released, but may say more about demand than the supply. USDA will not measure the crops in the field until the first of August and release that estimate on August 10. While everyone will be expecting USDA to reduce its 166 bushel per acre estimate for the 2012 corn crop, the July report traditionally does not contain any significant adjustments.
While there is little doubt the 166 bushel figure is no longer considered valid, the USDA might reduce it several bushels, but certainly not down to the 145 to 150 bushel range currently being traded by the grain market. A two or three bushel drop by USDA would be considered rather bearish, even though it may not be considered news for more than a couple minutes.
The market is expecting USDA to place the average yield at 154 bushels per acre. The average trade guess for old crop corn carryout is 840 million bushels at the end of August. The new crop corn carryout has a wide range of guesses, but the average is 1.23 billion bushels, down from June’s 1.88 billion. The market is expecting USDA to estimate the new soybean crop at 42.3 bushels per acre. For the 2011 soybean carryout the average guess is 170 million bushels. The new crop soybean carryout average is at 134 million bushels for new crop. [/quote]
