Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012 Source:
[None] URL Source:[None] Published:Feb 26, 2012 Author:Various Post Date:2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone Keywords:None Views:1481825 Comments:2390
So I'm going to experiment on just dumping raw data here, like, once a day or so....;}
" It's also instructive to look at how much more global temperature would rise if solar, wind and hydro were not available at the levels estimated by EIA between 2008 and 2035 and coal were used instead.[7] The additional rise would be about 0.0016 C in the case of solar, 0.0126 C for wind, 0.0565 C for hydro, and 0.0706 C for all three of these alternatives combined.[8] These avoided temperature increases are significant and renewable energy installations will keep on giving beyond 2035, but they are a small component of the overall temperature equation, which by the same assumptions is predicted to rise 0.49 C from carbon added to the atmosphere over this period.
These limits to mitigation deliver a clear message: It's past time to begin adapting to climate change with the same effort and specificity that communities invest in preparing for a coming hurricane or flood. Many involved in climate policy see this, but many other policymakers do not. We need to be ready for melting ice, rising sea level, floods, droughts, weather extremes, and changing, stressed ecology. We need zoning and other policies to stop people from moving into low-lying coastal cities and areas that will be more prone to flooding and drought. We need to breed and genetically engineer crops that will handle extremes. We need to anticipate where water shortages will arise and build needed infrastructure or shift how the land is used. We need to protect and manage ecosystems with a view to how they will change and move, preserving corridors for migration and dispersion. We need to establish and maintain a global bank for the DNA and viable tissue of all known species and new species as they are described, as a safety net against extinction. Most of all, we need to fasten our political will to action now. Who knows? If we accept the realities of adaptation, maybe the picture will be so vivid, ugly, and expensive that we'll address mitigation too.
5C and above – Highly unlikely nightmare scenario With a 5C rise, global average temperatures would be hotter than for 50m years. The Arctic region sees temperatures rise much higher than average – up to 20C – meaning the entire Arctic is now ice-free all year round. Most of the tropics, sub-tropics and even lower mid-latitudes are too hot to be inhabitable. The sea level rise is now sufficiently rapid that coastal cities across the world are largely abandoned. Above 6C, there would be a danger of "runaway warming", perhaps spurred by release of oceanic methane hydrates.
Since record amounts of water vapor can evaporate into air heated to record warm levels, it is not a surprise that incredible rains and unprecedented floods are resulting from this month’s near-record warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Four days into the crisis, survivors were packed into the city’s Superdome, living next to overflowing toilets and rotting bodies as gangs of young men with guns seized the only food and water available. Perhaps the most memorable scene was a single military helicopter landing for just a few minutes, its crew flinging food parcels and water bottles out onto the ground before hurriedly taking off again as if from a war zone. In scenes more like a Third World refugee camp than an American urban centre, young men fought for the water as pregnant women and the elderly looked on with nothing. Don’t blame them for behaving like this, I thought. It’s what happens when people are desperate.
Chance of avoiding one degree of global warming: zero.
