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Title: Mcgowanjm Wire 2012
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Published: Feb 26, 2012
Author: Various
Post Date: 2012-02-26 09:15:13 by A K A Stone
Keywords: None
Views: 1294420
Comments: 2390
Mcgowinjm Wire Service.
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#1445. To: A K A Stone, All (#0)
Re: World Markets - URL Post Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:25 am by mcgowanjm Start watching for news of: Fram and Davis Straits Greenland and Ocean Heat Flux: * Arctic sea ice shrinks to lowest June extent ever observed - Alaska Dispatch * Atlantic Heat Constrains Arctic Sea Ice Extent - Science Daily (press release) * Arctic sea ice enters its final decline (2) - Record-Searchlight (blog)
ARCUS June Sea Ice Outlook – The ‘New Normal’ Posted on June 21, 2012 by Anthony Watts From ARCUS: I’m late getting this posted, apologies. WUWT comes in third highest, same position we were last year. My thanks to Helen Wiggins for allowing us to enter again this year. – Anthony With 19 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 6 regional Outlook contributions), the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea extent median value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1). This compares to observed September values of 4.6 in 2011, 4.9 in 2010, and 5.4 in 2009. Both the 2012 quartile values and the range (4.1 to 4.9) are quite narrow. The 2012 June Outlook differs from all previous Outlooks in that there are no projections of extent greater than 5.0. It is always important to note for context that all 2012 estimates are well below the 1979–2007 September mean of 6.7 million square kilometers. Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (June Report) for September 2012 sea ice extent. Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1. Individual responses are based on a range of methods: statistical, numerical models, comparison with previous rates of sea ice loss, composites of several approaches, estimates based on various non-sea ice datasets and trends, and subjective information. The consensus is for a continued downward trend of September sea ice. It seems that the time may have come to declare that the arctic sea ice has in fact reached a “New Normal.” The physical justification for this statement is based primarily on the loss of old, thick sea ice and the increased mobility of sea ice. An expanded discussion of sea ice age and thickness is included in this month’s full report, which includes new sea ice thickness data from NASA “IceBridge” aircraft flights in March–April 2012. Credit for Sea Ice Outlook Report: Arctic Research Consortium of the US (ARCUS) The Sea Ice Outlook is organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) and the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS), with volunteer efforts of Outlook contributors. Funding is provided by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Don't know why that comforts you. Here's a better way to look at it.... Melt Accelerating. So by September you're looking at a plus 1600 GigaTon melt.
You are aware are you not that there is always a summer sea ice melt.
You are aware are you not that there is always a summer sea ice melt. SJN Early cartographers were unsure whether to draw the region around the North Pole as land (as in Johannes Ruysch's map of 1507, or Gerardus Mercator's map of 1595) or water (as with Martin Waldseemüller's world map of 1507). The fervent desire of European merchants for a northern passage to "Cathay" (China) caused water to win out, and by 1723 mapmakers such as Johann Homann featured an extensive "Oceanus Septentrionalis" at the northern edge of their charts. The few expeditions to penetrate much beyond the Arctic Circle in this era added only small islands, such as Novaya Zemlya (11th century) and Spitsbergen (1596), though since these were often surrounded by pack-ice their northern limits were not so clear. The makers of navigational charts, more conservative than some of the more fanciful cartographers, tended to leave the region blank, with only fragments of known coastline sketched in. This lack of knowledge of what lay north of the shifting barrier of ice gave rise to a number of conjectures. In England and other European nations, the myth of an "Open Polar Sea" was persistent. John Barrow, long time Second Secretary of the British Admiralty, promoted exploration of the region from 1818 to 1845 in search of this." -wiki Yeah. Everybody went swimming in the Arctic in Summer to escape the heat.....;}
We don’t have enough long-term data to say what is usual with regard to ice coverage in the arctic or understand the full extent of its natural variation.
#1471. To: SJN (#1460)
Again: NEW NEWS: Public release date: 21-Jun-2012 [ Print | E-mail | Share Share ] [ Close Window ] Contact: Janet Lathrop jlathrop@admin.umass.edu 413-545-0444 University of Massachusetts at Amherst Arctic climate more vulnerable than thought, maybe linked to Antarctic ice-sheet behavior DARN THOSE SCIENTIST TO HADES....;} http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_re...012-06/uoma-acm061512.php COLOGNE, Germany; AMHERST, MA, USA; MAGADAN, Russia. -- First analyses of the longest sediment core ever collected on land in the terrestrial Arctic, published this week in Science, provide documentation that intense warm intervals, warmer than scientists thought possible, occurred there over the past 2.8 million years. First analyses of the longest sediment core ever collected on land in the terrestrial Arctic provide documentation that intense warm intervals, warmer than scientists thought possible, occurred there over the past 2.8 million years
According to pollen-based climate reconstructions, summer temperatures and annual precipitation during the super interglacials were about 4 to 5 degrees C warmer and about 12 inches (300 mm) wetter than during normal interglacials. The super interglacial climates suggest that it's virtually impossible for the Greenland's ice sheet to have existed in its present form at those times. Simulations using a state-of-the-art climate model show that the high temperature and precipitation during the super interglacials cannot be explained by Earth´s orbital parameters or variations in atmospheric greenhouse gases alone, ************which geologists typically see driving the glacial/interglacial pattern during ice ages. This suggests additional climate feedbacks are at work. ************************** The scientists suspect the trigger for intense interglacials might be in Antarctica. Earlier work by the international ANDRILL program discovered recurring intervals when the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melted. The current study shows that some of these events match remarkably well with the super interglacials in the Arctic.
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#1447. To: mcgowanjm (#1445)
#1454. To: SJN (#1447)
#1456. To: mcgowanjm (#1454)
#1457. To: SJN (#1456)
#1456. To: mcgowanjm (#1454)
#1460. To: mcgowanjm (#1457)
Replies to Comment # 1460. We don’t have enough long-term data to say what is usual with regard to ice coverage in the arctic or understand the full extent of its natural variation.
#1473. To: SJN, All (#1460)
(Edited)
We don’t have enough long-term data to say what is usual with regard to ice coverage in the arctic or understand the full extent of its natural variation.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 1460.
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