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Title: Gallup State Numbers Predict Huge Obama Loss
Source:
WashingtonExaminer
URL Source: http://campaign2012.washingtonexami ... gallup-state-numbers-predict-h
Published: Feb 1, 2012
Author: Conn Carroll
Post Date: 2012-02-01 19:29:59 by Murron
Keywords: None
Views: 630
Comments: 2
Gallup State Numbers Predict Huge Obama Loss Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215. Gallup adds: Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico. (1 image)
Poster Comment: (Murron: No sooner had I gotten all the information I wanted from this story posted at The Examiner, it was scrubbed. I went back to double check to see if I had missed anything and this is what I found) Page not found Error messageThe page you requested does not exist. For your convenience, a search was performed using the query blogs beltway confidential gallup state numbers predict h. The page you were looking for does not exist. Please use the site search or return to the home page.
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#1. To: Murron (#0)
Implications Obama's approval rating at the state level provides some insight into his chances to win an Electoral College majority. He would seem to be well-positioned in the states in which his approval rating was above 50% last year, including three of the larger states in California, New York, and Illinois. The states with majority approval of Obama in 2011 account for 159 electoral votes. Obama won all of those states' electoral votes in the 2008 election. On the other hand, states in which his approval rating was below 40% seem less likely to recover enough to allow Obama to claim their electoral votes this fall. Those states account for 153 electoral votes. All except New Hampshire voted for John McCain in 2008. Thus, the key to Obama's winning a second term lies in the states whose approval rating is in the 40% range, which account for the remaining 226 electoral votes and include traditional "swing states" such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Obama won the vast majority of these states in 2008. Gallup and USA Today have identified 12 swing states that will be vitally important in this year's election, and Obama's job approval rating within those states ranges from 39% in New Hampshire to 48% in Michigan. His approval rating is a key indicator of his electoral vote chances, but it alone will not dictate his success in a given state's vote. The electorate in each state represents a smaller share of the population than the larger pool of all state residents on which his approval rating is based, so turnout among his supporters and opponents will be important. Also, state residents' electoral choice will be shaped in part by the choice voters have between Obama and his Republican opponent, and potential third-party candidates. Gallup will update Obama's state-by-state approval ratings in July. To date in 2012, his job approval rating remains just about where it was in 2011, with an average 45% approval rating for the week of Jan. 23-29. That makes his re-election prospects uncertain, but within striking distance of the historical minimum approval (48% by George W. Bush in 2004) a winning president has had at the time of his re-election vote. MORE... Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!
Of course it was scrubbed, Gallup has made no such prediction nor released any such poll. Gallup is a private survey group. The Examiner should have known better than to use their data and then claim that Gallup was predicting an Obama loss.
I'll believe that a corporation is a person 1 second after Texas executes one...
#2. To: Murron (#0)
(Murron: No sooner had I gotten all the information I wanted from this story posted at The Examiner, it was scrubbed. I went back to double check to see if I had missed anything and this is what I found)
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