CHARLESTON, S.C. - Looks like we’ve got a new “top tier.”
New Jersey’s own Jon Stewart had great fun with that term after the Iowa straw poll last summer. He compiled a clip of all the talking heads announcing authoritatively that the crowded 2012 presidential primary field had a “top tier” consisting of Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry.
The point to the joke was that Texas Congressman Ron Paul had finished in what would have been called a dead heat in any other poll. Yet he was being treated like the political equivalent of “the 13th floor in a hotel.”
Even back in August, it should have been obvious to any political observer that Paul was going to have staying power in the race, for two reasons: money and ground troops. Paul put together the sort of operation that is usually associated with a front-runner like Romney. Not only that, but he was running a type of campaign that is both very old and very new.
In the old days, state parties used to support “favorite son” candidates. Voters would choose their own governor, for example, to go to the convention and bargain their delegates for the best deal possible for the state.
Paul is running as a sort of favorite son candidate for his ideology, which is also both old and new. He wants to return the Republican Party to its small-government roots in the pre-New Deal era. He doesn’t have to win to do that.
If Paul can show up in Tampa this summer leading a big block of delegates, then he will have major input into key platform issues and will enjoy exercising it. At least that’s what his people told me after the debate here Thursday evening. That would be a huge improvement over 2008, when he was shut out by a vindictive John McCain.
The likely winner this year is taking an entirely different tack. Romney has been solicitous toward Paul during the debates, even going so far as to defer to his superior expertise on constitutional matters and complimenting him for his role as an ob/gyn doctor. That sets up an interesting dynamic within the new top tier to which both belong.
If the polls are borne out, the result of this evening’s vote will be to create a final top tier of Romney, Paul and Newt Gingrich. Those two will fight it out for mainstream support while Paul caters to an entirely different crowd that includes a lot of youthful supporters.
As for Rick Santorum, barring some sort miraculous last-minute surge this evening, he can be expected to go the way Rick Perry went this week. His money will dry up and he will drop out.
If he does and three-man debates ensue, Paul will have a more prominent position. He will use it to sock Gingrich. If you’ve been watching the attacks ads in this race, you’ve no doubt noticed that Paul’s attacks on Gingrich are indistinguishable from Romney’s. Paul has a personal disrespect, even a dislike, for Gingrich going back to 1996, when the then-House Speaker backed a Democrat who had just switched parties instead of backing Paul. Paul won anyway and went on to become a vocal critic of Gingrich’s wheeler-dealer antics.
Three-way debates would be a two-on-one contest, with Gingrich getting the worst of it. Gingrich’s strength has been his debating skill, but in a small group he’ll have to listen to Paul critique his flip-flops on key issues like global warming and the individual health-care mandate. Romney’s vulnerable on those issues as well, but Paul clearly takes delight in exposing Gingrich’s lack of principle.
Meanwhile Gingrich lacks both funding and organization. He didn’t even have the ground troops to get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in Virginia, where only Romney and Paul will compete. And when it comes to family values, Gingrich’s behavior brings to mind that Oscar Wilde quote “To lose one parent may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness.” Substitute “wives” for “parents” and you’ve summed up Gingrich’s marital history. He ducked it down here, but his character will catch up with him.
All of which puts us back where we were in August. Romney was the favorite then and he’s the favorite now, even if Gingrich ekes out a victory this evening. He has looked so bad in the debates that some people are talking about finding some last-minute substitute. These people know as little about political reality as the people who keep suggesting that Paul will bolt the GOP for a third-party run.
Expect instead that this race will grind down with mathematical inevitability. Expect also that Romney will welcome Paul and his many youthful supporters to celebrate his triumph in Tampa. This time around, it’s likely to be Gingrich who has a hard time getting into the hall.
Hi Jeffrey(Goldberg) - I'm working on (yet another) piece about the CAP-anti-Semitism controversy. Could you confirm whether, when you joined the IDF, you took this standard oath:
"I swear and commit to pledge allegiance to the State of Israel its laws, and authorities, to accept upon myself unconditionally the authority of the Israel Defense Force, obey all the orders and instructions given by authorized commanders, devote all my energies, and even sacrifice my life for the protection of the homeland and liberty of Israel."
Much appreciated -
Gingrich keeps 'lacking an orgamization' yet keeps on getting 100% more air time than any other.
Likewise, the career of Newt Gingrich has long since peaked, with many mainstream political pundits even categorizing him as ‘unelectable’, but his recent record-breaking PAC donation from the Israeli lobby establishment figure Sheldon Adelson now begins to make sense.
Note that Adelson is also an active financial supporter and media arm for Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career in Israel. Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate who is not overtly ‘pro-Israel’ in the popular neoconservative sense. On January 13, in the run-up to the pivotal South Carolina GOP primary, the Emergency Committee for Israel, run by neoconservative thinker
William Kristol,
released an ad in which its Director Gary Bauer makes a plea to voters – not endorsing any candidate, rather, telling conservatives that they must reject Congressman Ron Paul as their GOP candidate,
deriding his foreign policy views with respect to America’s ‘special relationship’ with Israel, and fighting the War on Terror – concluding that, “We can do better than Ron Paul”.
"On a different note: both Jeffrey Goldberg and David Bernstein have posts about my arguments on the smearing of CAP that rest on the same premise: namely, that to point out that someone has "dual loyalties" is an accusation of disloyalty to their own country or even worse. As I explain here, that premise is false."
-greenwald
" 'Dual loyalty' is an outrageous insult to any Jew. How could sumpremacists be loyal to anyone other that(n) the supreme group? There is nothing 'dual' about the loyalty of the Jews."
