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Title: Confidence Among U.S. Homebuilders Climbs to Highest Since 2007
Source: Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012- ... nce-2007-on-buyer-traffic.html
Published: Jan 18, 2012
Author: Alex Kowalski
Post Date: 2012-01-18 12:07:21 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 7672
Comments: 20

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in January to the highest level in more than four years as sales and buyer traffic improved.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment gauge increased to 25 this month, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and reaching the highest level since June 2007, the Washington-based group said today. Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents still said conditions were poor.

Record-low borrowing costs, a growing population and reduced prices may drive demand for homes this year even as another round of foreclosures threatens to weigh on the market. The confidence measure, which increased for a fourth straight month, improved in all four regions of the U.S.

This is “yet another indication of the gradual but steady improvement that is beginning to take hold in an increasing number of housing markets nationwide,” Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders and a builder from Reno, Nevada, said in a statement.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 7.

#1. To: Brian S (#0)

I just sold a 2200 sq ft home for 85K and just looked at a lake front home, on 5 acres, that was on the market in 09 for $384K...it's now $137k. NO WAY would a smart person buy/build a new home at $100 to $120 per sq ft when homes are available for less than half that...the minute the home is complete, it's WAY over market value, and we're NO WHERE near bottom...

freedomsnotfree  posted on  2012-01-18   12:26:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: freedomsnotfree (#1)

I just sold a 2200 sq ft home for 85K and just looked at a lake front home, on 5 acres, that was on the market in 09 for $384K...it's now $137k. NO WAY would a smart person buy/build a new home at $100 to $120 per sq ft when homes are available for less than half that...the minute the home is complete, it's WAY over market value, and we're NO WHERE near bottom...

I've been forced to remodel a home and have been surprised at the contractors wanting a 125/hr with a 500 minimum for a couple of hours worth of patching. Even the Mexicans standing outside Home Depot want 20-30 bucks an hour.

mininggold  posted on  2012-01-18   12:42:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: mininggold (#2)

Note not opne figure, one stat, pointing to a bottoming in housing.

Gasoline at $1.50(= $5 now;) in May, tell me where housing will be.

3X income.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-01-18   12:54:29 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: mcgowanjm (#4)

here's the equation...prices will continue to decline until the average person, making the average income, can afford the average home...we still got a ways to go...

freedomsnotfree  posted on  2012-01-18   13:07:17 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: freedomsnotfree (#5)

here's the equation...prices will continue to decline until the average person, making the average income, can afford the average home...we still got a ways to go...

here's the equation...prices will continue to decline until the average person, making the average income, can afford the average home...

without getting a loan, paying cash....a LONG ways to go.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-01-20   9:30:30 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: mcgowanjm (#6)

without getting a loan, paying cash....a LONG ways to go.

I don't think we'll get to THAT point...but I do know when I got in the business, 34 years ago, people putting 10,20 or 30% down was not only commonplace, but required...somewhere along the line, people earning 75k per year thought they were able to afford a 400k house. The old rule of thumb was, 2x income or one weeks income should cover your house payment...bottom line is, prices still have a LONG way to fall...I'd say we're back to 2000 prices and we may go back to what homes costs in the 80's or 90's...the higher end, large sq ft homes are definitely NOT vague anymore...forget cost to purchase...the costs to heat and cool them has gotten ridiculous.

freedomsnotfree  posted on  2012-01-20   9:45:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 7.

#8. To: freedomsnotfree (#7) (Edited)

I'd say we're back to 2000

1992...IMHO

Money Velocity is grinding to a halt.

Italy, Spain, the UK are in Depression now.

Thursday, January 19, 2012 You Can't Fool Mother Nature For Long: The Substitution of Debt for Productivity

charleshughsmith.blogspot...e%2FRzFQ+%28oftwominds%29

The Baltic Dry Index is down to Jan 09 Lows.

Global Trade has collapsed...Cash is King.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-01-20 09:59:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: freedomsnotfree (#7) (Edited)

If there's no extra energy, there's no way to service a loan.

$1.7 Quadrillion has to be Serviced, CounterPartied, or Extinguished.

Credit Contraction = Deflation.

In less than 3 years, a 3000 sq ft Williamsburg will go for $64 000....;}

IF it has an Acre of Land that goes with it.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-01-20 10:02:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: freedomsnotfree (#7)

And ALL of those 2nd Tier HELOCS?

DumpsterFire.

But how many do you think BofA has written off?

;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-01-20 10:23:49 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: freedomsnotfree (#7)

...somewhere along the line, people earning 75k per year thought they were able to afford a 400k house.

With interest rates on 30 yr mortgages currently below 4% and some money saved, they can. Easily.

Thunderbird  posted on  2012-01-20 11:01:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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