LF: Iowa Predictions 1-2-2012

Title: Iowa Predictions 1-2-2012
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Published: Jan 2, 2012
Author: A K A Stone
Post Date: 2012-01-02 13:13:25 by A K A Stone
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Views: 9501
Comments: 29

I have no idea. Anything less than first place for Dr. Paul will be portrayed by the media as proof that the American people have rejected him. If they say anything at all. They may just pretend he doesn't exist.

There are four boxes to be used in the defense of liberty: the soap box, the ballot box, the jury box and the ammo box. Please use in that order.

The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum's side. He's moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13.

Santorum's net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else's favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he's their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum's taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he's at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he's at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.

Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51).

For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney's 21% and Santorum's 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.

There's a similar divide along age lines. With seniors Paul is in only 5th place at 11%, well behind Romney's 27%, Gingrich's 19%, Santorum's 17%, and Perry's 12%. But with voters under 45, who we think will make a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2008, Paul's at 30% to 19% for Santorum and 14% for Romney.

If these young voters and independents really turn out for Paul on Tuesday he has a decent chance. But if it's a more traditional turnout Romney's chances are looking really good. As mentioned above he's winning with regular Republicans. He's winning with seniors. Most of the time if you're winning with those groups in Iowa you're going to win overall. Paul's unique appeal could confound some of the usual patterns about who turns out for these contests. But if it doesn't Romney or Santorum could come out on top...it looks like it's going to be a photo finish.

Full results www.publicpolicypolling.c...PP_Release_IA_101914.pdf" target="_self">here

www.publicpolicypolling.c...photo-finish-in-iowa.html

Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!

The Republican Party has moved so far to the left since baby Bush that this doesn't surprise me in the least. Remember that it was the Republican base that demanded that "free" meds for geezers be passed during the Bush administration and it was the Republican base that rewarded the party by reelecting more than 90% of the incumbents that voted for it. It is these same voters who will flock to Romney so that they can then embrace Obamacare and still consider themselves conservative.

I believe this is the election where Dr. Paul will decide to run as an independent.

He has little to loose as he is surrendering his House seat and not up for reelection.

Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!

I don't think he will but you never know. It doesn't matter anyway to the Republican Party. They have made it plain and clear that they do not want the votes of Paul supporters.

Not only do I believe he could win that way, he'd show the R/DNC that people are tired of their shit.

There are four boxes to be used in the defense of liberty: the soap box, the ballot box, the jury box and the ammo box. Please use in that order.

I read a while back when someone asked Rand about that possibility. He said it sounded to goofy.

He's never said that he "wouldn't" that I've heard. Mostly dances around the question when asked.

Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!

He probably wouldn't win in all honesty. He probably knows that. It would make Rand poison to some people in the future. Because Rand would have to endorse his dad.

Paul also spoke in some of the strongest terms to date about the potential of a third-party bid should he fail to secure the GOP nomination.

"I have no plans in doing that," Paul said. "Tomorrow is a big day. We'll see what happens but I have no intention of doing that, no plans and no desire."

I hope you vote 3rd party regardless if Dr. Paul runs on a 3rd party ticket or not. The leftist Republicrat party and its police state supporting followers have made it clear they they do not want your vote. Why would you want to vote for a party that despises you and your small government beliefs? It would be like voting for a Democrat.

A vote for Romney is a vote for war, big government, and a police state. A vote for Obama is a vote for war, big government, and a police state. Both parties will work together for the war and police state and if the Bush years are any indication the only difference between the two on big government will be no difference at all. Romney is even more liberal than Bush was and Bush was the Democrats best friend even if they won't thank him for it. If Clinton had grown liberal programs as much as Bush did he would be worshiped as a God. Romney and the Republicans are not only going to embrace Obamacare, they are going to expand it, just as they did with "free" meds for geezers.

It's your vote but here's something to think about. If you cast a vote for Romney or whoever, you aren't casting a vote against Obama. You are telling the Republican party that you approve of their war mongering, big government, police state agenda. The same goes for Democrats who vote for Obama.

Rick Santorum and Romney will split the neocon libtard vote, giving Ron Paul the win.

Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.

Well hopefully Dr. Paul will win and this type of decision won't be needed (doubtful I know).

Well, this is going to have to be my last post. Med school starts back up tomorrow and I have to drive back up to Columbia, MO tonight so I'm going to spend some time with the family. It's been fun. I haven't had the opportunity to argue about politics for quite a while. See you later.

I've gone through possible scenarios for Iowa, but I admit, that one never crossed my mind.

I'm almost ashamed to say that though. Now that you say it, it seems a bit obvious that Romney and Santorum will split the neo vote. Hell, and add in Gingrich and Bachmann.

There are four boxes to be used in the defense of liberty: the soap box, the ballot box, the jury box and the ammo box. Please use in that order.

Michele Bachmann will have such a pitiful showing that she will face enormous pressure from social conservatives to drop out of the race before South Carolina. However, she might decide to stay in to keep splitting the social conservative vote to get a cabinet post with the Romney administration.

Rand really has little to worry about. He has another 4 years before his re-election in a safe State.

Perhaps he wouldn't resist being the heir-apparent to his Dads political movement?

Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!

Let me tell you how it would work for a sitting U.S. Republican Senator to endorse a third party candidate:

1.) He would be removed from all of his committee seats. He will have no voice in anything in the Senate.

2.) None of his bills would get any co-sponsors, nor would they ever make it through any committee, let alone be moved to the floor for a vote

3.) The entire GOP machine would support his primary challenger in 2016, citing Rand Paul's failure to accomplish anything at all while in the Senate.

Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!

Good luck to you. I know that a serious student has many issues to contend with and even beyond the main focus. But when possible hit a hotspot Internet cafe from time to time and while sipping on a coffee or when performing research place LF in a background browser and come on back just to see that you have a number of people that enjoyed your posts and many of us agree with your opinions. Most of us aren't crazy and some of us are phunney as HELL, irrespective of the political slant.