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New World Order Title: It's Obama, Stupid: GOP Will Rally for Romney (or Whomever) In politics, the antagonist of voters' antagonist is their hero. Newt Gingrich leads Republicans in national polls for the same reason Mitt Romney would rally Republicans in a general election: Barack Obama. The Republican race is defined by seeming imponderables. How could a kingpin of D.C. insiders, a twice-divorced pol who led the charge against a presidential philanderer while himself philandering, take the lead in the party of Tea Party insurgents and social conservatives? And yet, how could the candidate who leaves conservatives so discouraged they’d actually back Gingrich ever unite conservatives in a general election? Gingrich took the lead because he takes it to Obama and to a lesser degree that perennial conservative bête noir -- the media. Conservatives ache for a right-wing pugilist. For now, at least, Gingrich is the candidate of the Republican id. That id has hit Romney hard. He can no longer claim the front-runner mantle. Yet if Romney pulls it out and wins the primary, Republicans will rally behind him. Deaniacs backed John Kerry. Hillary’s die-hards embraced Obama. And no matter what they say now, the Gingrich faddists will stand with Romney if he is the Republican standing against Obama. Protagonists are often overestimated in politics. The liberal Netroots was credited with Democrats’ resurgence in 2006. The Tea Party movement was credited with conservatives’ comeback last year. Both midterm blowouts were fundamentally reactions to the party in power. The Tea Party possibly peaked in November 2010. Yet exit polls found even then that only 22 percent of the electorate said “one reason” for their vote was to “send a message” that’s “in favor of the Tea Party movement.” By comparison, 37 percent of voters said they were expressing “opposition” to Obama. And Obama was not even on the ballot. But Obama will be next year. Thus, more than six in 10 Republicans are enthusiastic about voting for president (really against this president) compared to less than half of Democrats in key swing states, according to Gallup. Democrats know the identity of their candidate. Republicans do not. But Republicans know who they oppose. This is why the political press need not obsess over Romney’s supposed ceiling. The oft- noted statistic: Romney has never attracted more than a quarter of the GOP electorate to him. And so we watch rank-and-file Republicans jump from anti-Romney vessel to anti-Romney vessel (Donald Trump, Michele Bachman, Rick Perry, Herman Cain). If Gingrich actually does not sink, if he wins the nomination, his problem will not be partisans. GOP voters will climb aboard with Gingrich, as they will with Romney, regardless of what we hear and read. “Many conservatives and Tea Partiers would be unlikely to vote for Romney in the general election,” wrote veteran conservative activist Richard Viguerie last month. Prominent conservative blogger Erick Erickson declared, “Conservatives will not rally together with the least of the bad alternatives.” And even George Will -- who should know better (and one suspects he does) -- wrote that should Romney win the nomination, conservatives “will be deflated by a nominee whose blurry profile in caution communicates only calculated trimming.” Yet Obama has proven quite adept at inflaming Republican passions himself. Conservatives understandably hesitate to lift up a man who passed the pilot for the largest entitlement expansion in four decades (health care reform) and is shown on video as recently as 2002 describing his views as “progressive.” But many already have done just that. Recall February 2008. Romney’s moderation was more contemporary. The hard right did not view Obama in today’s harsh light. And there was Romney on stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). The right was rallying to him as the anti-McCain. Conservative radio host Laura Ingraham introduced Romney as “the conservative's conservative.” Yet Romney decided to be the good soldier and bow out. There were cries of “nooo” and “fight on.” The room felt suddenly punctured and many conservatives’ hopes with it. Today, Romney is in the role as the flawed establishment candidate. But those candidates usually survive their “anybody but” challenges. John McCain, John Kerry, George W. Bush and Al Gore faced them and won, like other front-runners before them. This president was a rare, if only partial, exception. Candidate Obama wielded plenty of establishment support, from Edward Kennedy to John Kerry. By design, presidential elections are a choice between imperfect options. Ideologues forever fight this fact, but they ultimately accommodate it. Even Ronald Reagan came from California with bitter pills. The right overlooked his digressions from conservatism in Sacramento (raising taxes to balance the state budget, signing a pre-Roe v. Wade law meant making abortions easier to obtain). Liberals did the same with Obama. They overlooked his moderation, the conflict between the conciliator character and the progressive vision that led him to vote “present” more than a hundred times in the Illinois state Senate. Conservative opposition to Obama might also dissuade a third-party challenge from the right. Neither Ron Paul nor Donald Trump likely wants to be remembered as the candidate who re- elected Obama. Paul has already hinted as much. “I have no intention of doing it,” the Texas congressman told CNN. Paul mounted a third-party bid in 1988. But today he is popular. That popularity might instill prudence. He also has a son in the Senate. Rand Paul ascended on his family’s brand. Republicans would not think too highly of that brand if Paul proves a Perot- like spoiler. Thus, conservatives will likely be forced to choose between the options before them. It’s plausible Paul pulls off Iowa. But he’s too socially libertarian to win the modern right. Jon Huntsman might still have his moment but, beyond once working for the right’s rival, he’s probably too mild-mannered to generate a last-minute wave. That may leave Republicans with a difficult choice between the flawed twosome: Gingrich or Romney. Gingrich is a stronger primary candidate for the reason Romney is a stronger general election candidate. Politics is perception. Only 16 percent of independents view Gingrich positively, according to the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. Hence, Gingrich trails Obama by double digits in a one-on-one matchup; Romney roughly ties Obama. Today’s Gingrich recalls Howard Dean circa 2004. Hyper-partisan pugilism dissuades persuadable moderates even as it inspires extremes. And Gingrich is inspiring the right. This is why he has “particularly high support” from Republicans who are more likely to vote, according to Gallup. About twice as many Republican primary voters say Gingrich is conservative (57 percent) as say the same about Romney (29 percent), according to the NBC-WSJ poll. Romney must close that gap by highlighting Gingrich’s conservative apostasy (ridicule of the Ryan plan, a global warming ad with Nancy Pelosi, et cetera). In other words, Romney must dent Gingrich’s image as the right’s slugger. Republicans still see the 1994 revolutionary who challenged the previous Democratic president. They watch Gingrich ripping into Obama as a believer in “Saul Alinsky radicalism” or urging Republican candidates to “repudiate every effort of the news media to get Republicans to fight each other to protect Barack Obama.” Gingrich rises the more he appears to be the anti-Obama rather than the anti-Romney. But conservatives’ coolness towards Romney should not be mistaken for opposition. Two- thirds of Republicans and right-leaning independents have a favorable view of Romney, roughly equivalent to Gingrich, according to Gallup polling. Conservatives currently have a more passionately favorable view of Gingrich. But for Republicans, it’s still a choice between candidates who are hardly steadfast conservatives. And with no strong GOP candidate, conservatives will inevitably rely on Obama to stir them. That opposition awaits any Republican. Only one in 10 Republicans approves of Obama’s presidency, by Gallup’s measure. In October, the Pew Research Center found that about a quarter of voters “very strongly” approved of Obama compared to a third who “very strongly” disapproved. Seven in 10 Republicans lined up among those "strong" opponents. Then there’s the anger. Three in four Tea Party supporters do not believe “Obama shares the values most Americans try to live by,” according to a 2010 CBS-New York Times poll. Values conflicts stir the greatest enmity in politics, and with it energy. More conservatives likely would turn out if they had a candidate they passionately support rather than merely one they passionately oppose. But never underestimate the power of a polemical alternative. Under the banner of a weak hero, the right adversary can still inspire the ranks. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 11.
#1. To: All (#0)
It's WHO and WHAT the messiah "king" obammy has been/ and IS during HIS regime's last THREE YEARS and NOW. It's WHAT and HOW the messiah "king" obammy has DONE TO AMERICA and AMERICANS during HIS regime's last THREE YEARS, and what HE wants to DO TO US NOW. It's the messiah "king" obammy STUPID. It's OBAMA STUPID! (Admiral Yamamato knew, STUPID.)
If Newt gets the nomination I'll probably go ahead and vote for him. If Ron Paul gets the nomination (I know you think it is impossible just use your imagination for a sec) would you vote for him or Obama?
. I've already said that I would vote "for" RonniePaulie over obama here on this site a couple of times before this. IF the world really was THAT insane and that was the only choice; I'd vote for a HAM SANDWICH against obama. Even if it was the wee FRAUD.
I can't recall everyone's position on every issue. Thanks.
I never thought or hoped that you would. Any time.
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