The biggest news of the weekend in Presidential politics is the decision by businessman Herman Cain to suspend his campaign over allegations of marital infidelity. When the allegations against Cain started rolling out, his poll numbers dropped precipitiously. According to the most recent polls in New Hampshire and Iowa, Cain is receiving single-digit support, down from the high twenties just a few weeks ago.
Congressman Ron Paul is enjoying a trend in Iowa and New Hampshire that is moving in the other direction.
According to a new poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, Paul is now in second place behind Newt Gingrich. The latest New Hampshire polls (see above link) have Paul a solid third place behind Romney and Gingrich. Consequently, political observors are speculating about Cain's supporters. Where will they turn?
It stands to reason that Mitt Romney, the so-called Establishment Candidate, will get few of them because Cain's appeal was in large part because he was perceived as an outspoken and charismatic political outsider. Voters who want a charismatic outsider will probably not be interested in the play it safe Romney.
Newt Gingrich should get some of the voters because polls are showing that Gingrich is receiving a lot of Tea Party support, a fact that is confusing, given Gingrich's big government leanings in the past and his support for big government programs like Freddie Mac. However, it is also likely that voters who were dismayed by Cain's alleged sexual meandering will have the same concerns about Gingrich, who has admitted to having affairs himself.
Michele Bachmann would be a likely recipient of Cain support because of her Tea Party identity, but voters may already have concluded that she is not a viable candidate.
None of the other candidates appear situated in such a way to garner much support from former Cain supporters.
That leaves Congressman Paul, the Godfather of the Tea Party Movement (see embedded video) and a Washington statesman who although he holds political office, is fiercely independent and a noted challenger of the status quo. Paul's refusal to condemn Cain publicly while the other candidates were piling on, has endeared him with some of Cain's supporters who believe Cain was railroaded by the national press. While much of the media was focused on Cain, Paul was releasing a hard hitting internet ad criticizing Gingrich's hypocrisy.
Consequently, Ron Paul seems like a logical alternative for the Cain people, especially in New Hampshire and Iowa, both states that pride themselves on their limited government ideology and their independent spirit.
If you would like to be updated when Kevin Kervick publishes a new article, click on the subscribe link above this article.
Other articles by Kevin Kervick are available here.
Click for Full Text!
