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Title: What caused the financial crisis? The Big Lie goes viral.
Source: WashingtonPost
URL Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin ... 11/10/31/gIQAXlSOqM_story.html
Published: Nov 11, 2011
Author: Barry Ritholtz
Post Date: 2011-11-11 11:07:52 by buckeroo
Keywords: None
Views: 14031
Comments: 42

I have a fairly simple approach to investing: Start with data and objective evidence to determine the dominant elements driving the market action right now. Figure out what objective reality is beneath all of the noise. Use that information to try to make intelligent investing decisions.

But then, I’m an investor focused on preserving capital and managing risk. I’m not out to win the next election or drive the debate. For those who are, facts and data matter much less than a narrative that supports their interests.

One group has been especially vocal about shaping a new narrative of the credit crisis and economic collapse: those whose bad judgment and failed philosophy helped cause the crisis.

Rather than admit the error of their ways — Repent! — these people are engaged in an active campaign to rewrite history. They are not, of course, exonerated in doing so. And beyond that, they damage the process of repairing what was broken. They muddy the waters when it comes to holding guilty parties responsible. They prevent measures from being put into place to prevent another crisis.

Here is the surprising takeaway: They are winning. Thanks to the endless repetition of the Big Lie.

A Big Lie is so colossal that no one would believe that someone could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. There are many examples: Claims that Earth is not warming, or that evolution is not the best thesis we have for how humans developed. Those opposed to stimulus spending have gone so far as to claim that the infrastructure of the United States is just fine, Grade A (not D, as the we discussed last month), and needs little repair.

Wall Street has its own version: Its Big Lie is that banks and investment houses are merely victims of the crash. You see, the entire boom and bust was caused by misguided government policies. It was not irresponsible lending or derivative or excess leverage or misguided compensation packages, but rather long-standing housing policies that were at fault.

Indeed, the arguments these folks make fail to withstand even casual scrutiny. But that has not stopped people who should know better from repeating them.

The Big Lie made a surprise appearance Tuesday when New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, responding to a question about Occupy Wall Street, stunned observers by exonerating Wall Street: “It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.”

What made his comments so stunning is that he built Bloomberg Data Services on the notion that data are what matter most to investors. The terminals are found on nearly 400,000 trading desks around the world, at a cost of $1,500 a month. (Do the math — that’s over half a billion dollars a month.) Perhaps the fact that Wall Street was the source of his vast wealth biased him. But the key principle of the business that made the mayor a billionaire is that fund managers, economists, researchers and traders should ignore the squishy narrative and, instead, focus on facts. Yet he ignored his own principles to repeat statements he should have known were false.

Why are people trying to rewrite the history of the crisis? Some are simply trying to save face. Interest groups who advocate for deregulation of the finance sector would prefer that deregulation not receive any blame for the crisis.

Some stand to profit from the status quo: Banks present a systemic risk to the economy, and reducing that risk by lowering their leverage and increasing capital requirements also lowers profitability. Others are hired guns, doing the bidding of bosses on Wall Street.

They all suffer cognitive dissonance — the intellectual crisis that occurs when a failed belief system or philosophy is confronted with proof of its implausibility.

And what about those facts? To be clear, no single issue was the cause. Our economy is a complex and intricate system. What caused the crisis? Look:

●Fed Chair Alan Greenspan dropped rates to 1 percent — levels not seen for half a century — and kept them there for an unprecedentedly long period. This caused a spiral in anything priced in dollars (i.e., oil, gold) or credit (i.e., housing) or liquidity driven (i.e., stocks).

●Low rates meant asset managers could no longer get decent yields from municipal bonds or Treasurys. Instead, they turned to high-yield mortgage-backed securities. Nearly all of them failed to do adequate due diligence before buying them, did not understand these instruments or the risk involved. They violated one of the most important rules of investing: Know what you own.

●Fund managers made this error because they relied on the credit ratings agencies — Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. They had placed an AAA rating on these junk securities, claiming they were as safe as U.S. Treasurys.

4 Derivatives had become a uniquely unregulated financial instrument. They are exempt from all oversight, counter-party disclosure, exchange listing requirements, state insurance supervision and, most important, reserve requirements. This allowed AIG to write $3 trillion in derivatives while reserving precisely zero dollars against future claims.

5 The Securities and Exchange Commission changed the leverage rules for just five Wall Street banks in 2004. The “Bear Stearns exemption” replaced the 1977 net capitalization rule’s 12-to-1 leverage limit. In its place, it allowed unlimited leverage for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. These banks ramped leverage to 20-, 30-, even 40-to-1. Extreme leverage leaves very little room for error.

6Wall Street’s compensation system was skewed toward short-term performance. It gives traders lots of upside and none of the downside. This creates incentives to take excessive risks.

7 The demand for higher-yielding paper led Wall Street to begin bundling mortgages. The highest yielding were subprime mortgages. This market was dominated by non-bank originators exempt from most regulations. The Fed could have supervised them, but Greenspan did not.

8 These mortgage originators’ lend-to-sell-to-securitizers model had them holding mortgages for a very short period. This allowed them to get creative with underwriting standards, abdicating traditional lending metrics such as income, credit rating, debt-service history and loan-to-value.

9 “Innovative” mortgage products were developed to reach more subprime borrowers. These include 2/28 adjustable-rate mortgages, interest-only loans, piggy-bank mortgages (simultaneous underlying mortgage and home-equity lines) and the notorious negative amortization loans (borrower’s indebtedness goes up each month). These mortgages defaulted in vastly disproportionate numbers to traditional 30-year fixed mortgages.

●To keep up with these newfangled originators, traditional banks developed automated underwriting systems. The software was gamed by employees paid on loan volume, not quality.

●Glass-Steagall legislation, which kept Wall Street and Main Street banks walled off from each other, was repealed in 1998. This allowed FDIC-insured banks, whose deposits were guaranteed by the government, to engage in highly risky business. It also allowed the banks to bulk up, becoming bigger, more complex and unwieldy.

●Many states had anti-predatory lending laws on their books (along with lower defaults and foreclosure rates). In 2004, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency federally preempted state laws regulating mortgage credit and national banks. Following this change, national lenders sold increasingly risky loan products in those states. Shortly after, their default and foreclosure rates skyrocketed.

Bloomberg was partially correct: Congress did radically deregulate the financial sector, doing away with many of the protections that had worked for decades. Congress allowed Wall Street to self-regulate, and the Fed the turned a blind eye to bank abuses.

The previous Big Lie — the discredited belief that free markets require no adult supervision — is the reason people have created a new false narrative.

Now it’s time for the Big Truth.

The REAL ESTATE "BUBBLE" was all caused by government interference in America. It was based on, The Community Reinvestment Act (CRA, Pub.L. 95-128, title VIII of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1977, 91 Stat. 1147, 12 U.S.C. § 2901 et seq.) is a United States federal law designed to encourage commercial banks and savings associations to help meet the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods.

Furthermore, through time, this CRA program required more and more local banks to increase their loans within CRA. In 1977 it was around 5% until 2005 arounf d 50%. Furthermore, this increased the market competition to lower standards ensuring that the banks met CRA requirements. Notice how many banks went BELLY-UP for the last six years as unqualified buyers lost their homes? It was the federal government pushing SHIT on America.

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#1. To: buckeroo (#0)

Furthermore, through time, this CRA program required more and more local banks to increase their loans within CRA. In 1977 it was around 5% until 2005 arounf d 50%. Furthermore, this increased the market competition to lower standards ensuring that the banks met CRA requirements. Notice how many banks went BELLY-UP for the last six years as unqualified buyers lost their homes? It was the federal government pushing SHIT on America.

I would like to see a citation for that claim.

Plus the WP seems to forget that the CRA was the result of intense lobbying by the bankers who would later directly profit, home building, real estate and other industries.

mininggold  posted on  2011-11-11   12:00:29 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: mininggold (#1)

CRA was the result of intense lobbying by the bankers...

CRA was the government's response to red-lining.. not lobbying by bankers.

You liberal worm tongues are pathetic liars.

Thunderbird  posted on  2011-11-11   14:51:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: Thunderbird (#21) (Edited)

CRA was the government's response to red-lining.. not lobbying by bankers.

You liberal worm tongues are pathetic liars.

Looks like another name caller's been caught on the line.

It's continuance has certainly been lobbied for by banks.

mininggold  posted on  2011-11-11   15:02:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: mininggold (#22)

Looks like another name caller's been caught on the line.

Hmm...

Worm tongue is an accurate description of ssomeone who lies like you do.

Are you claiming not to be a liberal?

It's continuance has certainly been lobbied for by banks.

CRA has never been lobbied for by the banks...you stupid cow

Thunderbird  posted on  2011-11-11   18:47:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: Thunderbird (#23) (Edited)

Hmm...

Worm tongue is an accurate description of ssomeone who lies like you do.

Are you claiming not to be a liberal?

It's continuance has certainly been lobbied for by banks.

CRA has never been lobbied for by the banks...you stupid cow

CRA has been changed, what.... about sixteen times or so and you are saying not one time did a bank lobby for a change?.... on legislation that directly affected them?

Maybe you might get some of your fellow lockstepping 1 percenters to believe that. That's also why Tea Partiers have such a reputation for being gullible lemmings.

mininggold  posted on  2011-11-12   12:16:59 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: mininggold (#26)

CRA has been changed, what.... about sixteen times or so and you are saying not one time did a bank lobby for a change?....

There you have it folks..from banks 'intensely lobbying for CRA' to..'are you saying not one time'..in about three exchanges.

You really have no idea how much lobbying banks did for CRA do you squirrel?

Thunderbird  posted on  2011-11-15   9:19:17 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: Thunderbird (#27)

You really have no idea how much lobbying banks did for CRA do you squirrel?

Of course not and neither do you.

mininggold  posted on  2011-11-15   9:55:47 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: mininggold (#28)

Of course not..

Which apparently doesn't stop you from lying about it either.

Either provide an example of bank lobbying for CRA or STFU about it.

Sabe dumbass?

Thunderbird  posted on  2011-11-15   10:06:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: Thunderbird (#29)

Which apparently doesn't stop you from lying about it either.

Either provide an example of bank lobbying for CRA or STFU about it.

Sabe dumbass?

LOL Mr Banker's got his dainty panties in a wad today. Wants posters to believe no bank would actually dare to lobby on legislation that directly affects them. You are just toooooo funnny. Oh and and that lying charge! How dare a poster infer that bankers actually lobby without the itinerary of every banking lobbyist for the last forty years to back it up.

Whatsa matter, Poor baby? Your 401k go belly up last week?

mininggold  posted on  2011-11-15   10:21:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: mininggold (#30)

LOL Mr Banker's got his dainty panties in a wad today. Wants posters to believe no bank would actually dare to lobby on legislation that directly affects them. You are just toooooo funnny. Oh and and that lying charge! How dare a poster infer that bankers actually lobby without the itinerary of every banking lobbyist for the last forty years to back it up.

According to this, the repeal of Glass-Steagall cost $300 million dollars

After 12 attempts in 25 years, Congress finally repeals Glass-Steagall, rewarding financial companies for more than 20 years and $300 million worth of lobbying efforts. Supporters hail the change as the long-overdue demise of a Depression-era relic.

Paul Volcker warns against easing Glass-Steagall

Thomas Theobald, then vice chairman of Citicorp, argues that three "outside checks" on corporate misbehavior had emerged since 1933: "a very effective" SEC; knowledgeable investors, and "very sophisticated" rating agencies. Volcker is unconvinced, and expresses his fear that lenders will recklessly lower loan standards in pursuit of lucrative securities offerings and market bad loans to the public. For many critics, it boiled down to the issue of two different cultures - a culture of risk which was the securities business, and a culture of protection of deposits which was the culture of banking.

It kind of looks like Volcker was right.

www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/fr...lstreet/weill/demise.html

lucysmom  posted on  2011-11-15   11:31:05 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: lucysmom (#33)

It kind of looks like Volcker was right.

I guess Mr Bankster doesn't realize how changes in one legislation can affect the intent or outcomes of similiar legislation. I'm sure his 'non lobbyist employing' employers knew though.

mininggold  posted on  2011-11-15   11:47:24 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: mininggold (#34)

I guess Mr Bankster doesn't realize...

Either that, or he has an interest in spreading disinformation.

lucysmom  posted on  2011-11-15   12:27:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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