International News
See other International News Articles
Title: World power swings back to America
Source:
The Telegraph
URL Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ ... er-swings-back-to-America.html
Published: Oct 23, 2011
Author: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Post Date: 2011-10-23 19:15:05 by A K A Stone
Keywords: None
Views: 9562
Comments: 28
The American phoenix is slowly rising again. Within five years or so, the US will be well on its way to self-sufficiency in fuel and energy. Manufacturing will have closed the labour gap with China in a clutch of key industries. The current account might even be in surplus. Assumptions that the Great Republic must inevitably spiral into economic and strategic decline - so like the chatter of the late 1980s, when Japan was in vogue - will seem wildly off the mark by then. Telegraph readers already know about the "shale gas revolution" that has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas, ahead of Russia. Less known is that the technology of hydraulic fracturing - breaking rocks with jets of water - will also bring a quantum leap in shale oil supply, mostly from the Bakken fields in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas, and other reserves across the Mid-West. "The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea. Total US shale output is "set to expand dramatically" as fresh sources come on stream, possibly reaching 5.5m b/d by mid-decade. This is a tenfold rise since 2009. The US already meets 72pc of its own oil needs, up from around 50pc a decade ago. "The implications of this shift are very large for geopolitics, energy security, historical military alliances and economic activity. As US reliance on the Middle East continues to drop, Europe is turning more dependent and will likely become more exposed to rent-seeking behaviour from oligopolistic players," said Mr Blanch. Meanwhile, the China-US seesaw is about to swing the other way. Offshoring is out, 're-inshoring' is the new fashion. "Made in America, Again" - a report this month by Boston Consulting Group - said Chinese wage inflation running at 16pc a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the "default location" for cheap plants supplying the US. A "tipping point" is near in computers, electrical equipment, machinery, autos and motor parts, plastics and rubber, fabricated metals, and even furniture. "A surprising amount of work that rushed to China over the past decade could soon start to come back," said BCG's Harold Sirkin. The gap in "productivity-adjusted wages" will narrow from 22pc of US levels in 2005 to 43pc (61pc for the US South) by 2015. Add in shipping costs, reliability woes, technology piracy, and the advantage shifts back to the US. The list of "repatriates" is growing. Farouk Systems is bringing back assembly of hair dryers to Texas after counterfeiting problems; ET Water Systems has switched its irrigation products to California; Master Lock is returning to Milwaukee, and NCR is bringing back its ATM output to Georgia. NatLabs is coming home to Florida. Boston Consulting expects up to 800,000 manufacturing jobs to return to the US by mid-decade, with a multiplier effect creating 3.2m in total. This would take some sting out of the Long Slump. As Philadelphia Fed chief Sandra Pianalto said last week, US manufacturing is "very competitive" at the current dollar exchange rate. Whether intended or not, the Fed's zero rates and $2.3 trillion printing blitz have brought matters to an abrupt head for China. Fed actions confronted Beijing with a Morton's Fork of ugly choices: revalue the yuan, or hang onto the mercantilist dollar peg and import a US monetary policy that is far too loose for a red-hot economy at the top of the cycle. Either choice erodes China's wage advantage. The Communist Party chose inflation. Foreign exchange effects are subtle. They take a long to time play out as old plant slowly runs down, and fresh investment goes elsewhere. Yet you can see the damage to Europe from an over-strong euro in foreign direct investment (FDI) data. Flows into the EU collapsed by 63p from 2007 to 2010 (UNCTAD data), and fell by 77pc in Italy. Flows into the US rose by 5pc. Volkswagen is investing $4bn in America, led by its Chattanooga Passat plant. Korea's Samsung has begun a $20bn US investment blitz. Meanwhile, Intel, GM, and Caterpillar and other US firms are opting to stay at home rather than invest abroad. Europe has only itself to blame for the current “hollowing out” of its industrial base. It craved its own reserve currency, without understanding how costly this “exorbitant burden” might prove to be. China and the rising reserve powers have rotated a large chunk of their $10 trillion stash into EMU bonds to reduce their dollar weighting. The result is a euro too strong for half of EMU. The European Central Bank has since made matters worse (for Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France) by keeping rates above those of the US, UK, and Japan. That has been a deliberate policy choice. It let real M1 deposits in Italy contract at a 7pc annual rate over the summer. May it live with the consequences. The trade-weighted dollar has been sliding for a decade, falling 37pc since 2001. This roughly replicates the post-Plaza slide in the late 1980s, which was followed - with a lag - by 3pc of GDP shrinkage in the current account deficit. The US had a surplus by 1991. Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research argue that this may happen again in their new book "The American Phoenix". The switch in advantage to the US is relative. It does not imply a healthy US recovery. The global depression will grind on as much of the Western world tightens fiscal policy and slowly purges debt, and as China deflates its credit bubble. Yet America retains a pack of trump cards, and not just in sixteen of the world’s top twenty universities. It is almost the only economic power with a fertility rate above 2.0 - and therefore the ability to outgrow debt - in sharp contrast to the demographic decay awaiting Japan, China, Korea, Germany, Italy, and Russia. Europe's EMU soap opera has shown why it matters that America is a genuine nation, forged by shared language and the ancestral chords of memory over two centuries, with institutions that ultimately work and a real central bank able to back-stop the system. The 21st Century may be American after all, just like the last.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: All, mcgowanjm (#0)
Total US shale output is "set to expand dramatically" as fresh sources come on stream, possibly reaching 5.5m b/d by mid-decade. This is a tenfold rise since 2009. Peak oil is bullshit for losers and suckers. That way you accept paying more for something in abundant supply.
How is this so? Can you back this up?
How is this so? Can you back this up? Did you read the article? "The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.
My family's been doing oil my entire life. Like fish and water. Once again the 'Humans are God's Children and this planet takes raping and pillaging forever.' MEME. No different than yeast, A K
This. is. insane. Note not a word from USSA MSM on ALL the Many thanx from the World for killing Qaddafi?
Especially from the African Continent....... ....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....crickets.........;}
Yup. But there is nothing in it that refutes the concept of peak oil.
So, I take it he thinks oil is a renewable resource, and that new extraction techniques have nothing to do with the current production. Another thing he is overlooking is the of injecting solvents and other substances to cause micro fractures and access to previously locked oil causes ground water contamination. Which means some of this new oil comes at a high price. Even though when mixed with ground water it becomes contaminated and there is alarming evidence in arias where this is being done that show this happening. I hate to break it to the lad; but oil ain't water, and it ain't fish.
He and his are at the point where they are too heavily invested in the current MEME: There will never be enough raping&pillaging humans to affect this planet in a way that will cause humans to die off. There are no limits and you can never have enough wealth. Published Oct 19 2011 by The Archdruid Report, Archived Oct 19 2011 A lesson in practical magic by John Michael Greer Up to this point in our discussion of the intersection between peak oil and magic, we’ve mostly talked about what doesn’t work. That couldn’t be avoided, since the misunderstandings of magic that run barefoot through contemporary culture have to be dealt with before it’s possible to make sense of anything more substantive.
Case in Point: Title: When did the U.S. government pass a law dictating the Separation of Church and State? Where can this law be found? Source: Christian Answers URL Source: www.christiananswers.net/q-wall/wal-g004.html Published: Oct 23, 2011 Author: n/a Post Date: 2011-10-23 21:18:11 by Murron Keywords: None
Like fish and water. So what. Ever heard of the new stuff they are doing in North Dakota? Why did our oil output increase? Why is it going to increase more again next year and the year after?
No insane is your prediction about Florida being evacuated and lots of people dying. That was insane.
Tell me how long the Williston oil field can take care of America? Months? Maybe? Why did our oil output increase? EOR= Enhanced Oil Recovery techniques. As the EROEI(Energy Return On Energy invested) Drops. The key is Light Sweet Conventional. Which has not increased...And I have yet to see the subtraction of Libya's 1.6 MMBD from World Production Charts. "All resources can be found in any required quantity if there is enough energy input available. For example: - Most elements are present in seawater. Want gold? You can extract it by the ton from sea water. - Oil can be synthesised from any organic compound. So why shouldn’t production rates increase pretty much indefinitely?" The Law of Diminishing Returns and Receding Horizons...
Everytime you print that I think of Yukon. And you channeling him....;} I keep pointing out that the US does not will not ever evac or do anything but cosmetic ever again, and you keep refusing to understand that. Dolphin Deaths from the USbpEcocide classified. Saturday, Oct 15, 2011 - Gulf Shores, Alabama Shrimp Festival PROTEST! Protesters demonstrated on the beach, per the agreement with city officials, who had safety concerns due to a large number of people who attended the festival. Protestors were kept well away from the crowd and were not allowed to use any kind of electrical or battery type of amplification (ex: microphone).
Every time that I mention what you said, you think of Yukon. That's strange.
Powerful quake destroys building, kills many in SE Turkish city of Van “There are so many dead. Several buildings have collapsed, there is too much destruction,” Zulfikar Arapoglu, the mayor of Ercis told NTV... Hell, note how we don't even ask Amerikans for donations for world Disasters anymore? ;}
Do you think earthquakes are becoming more numerous and stronger?
IT's strange Now that you don't remember Yukon and my debate on the USbpEcocide and that he kept repeating that exact phrase. Like this: TPF: yukon comes out of the closet and admits he is gay (like most ... the-peoples-forum.com/cgi...cgi?ArtNum=23395...Cached You +1'd this publicly. Undo Mar 27, 2011 – They need to get the thread down first or people are going to ask them to post the proof when they make the final claim. ...... Paraphrase [Yukko to mcgowanjm]: Hey McGoon, when are those 20 million people going to evacuate from the Gulf coast? LOLAY .... Cain beats Perry in Florida straw poll ... And you, A K, don't remember picking that up. Expecially considering that I made it a point to refuse to communicate with YUk on anything. Only the folks, like you, A K, that repeated what he said....;}
Ok you are refreshing my memory a bit. Florida wasn't evacuated.
libertysflame.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=19296 Title: Fartsky Source: [None] URL Source: [None] Published: Apr 5, 2011 Author: A K A Stone Post Date: 2011-04-05 07:57:52 by A K A Stone Keywords: None Views: 57 Comments: 4 Lets see I sent an email to your account email address. No response. If you care to get back in just log in under another name and I will see that your ip matches your original. Then I can get you back in. If you want to.
Good, but then you slip back in...;} "Florida wasn't evacuated." 8D Glad I could help with your memory there. Again. There are no shrimp in the estuary. Shrimping - Mississippi Department of Marine Resources http://www.dmr.ms.gov/Fisheries/shrimping.htmCached You +1'd this publicly. Undo Mississippi is an ideal location for shrimp production. Dynamic environments called wetlands provide rich nursery grounds necessary for the developing shrimp. ... Oct - 2011 October | http://GoKill.com http://gokill.com/2011/10/Cached You +1'd this publicly. Undo 2 days ago – Fisherman in Mississippi say there are no SHRIMP & CRAB ... Show more results from http://gokill.com
Mainstream science rejected this theory 100 years ago,...and now they are getting shown the door.
I don't buy millions of years. If the plates do fit. I think it happened during the flood and the opening of the fountains of the deep.
The Expanding Earth Theory holds water for me (pun intended.)
Now if only the US doesn't screw it up by electing retard leaders who are bent on ruling the world (like they have for the the last 30 or 40 years).
. I think he meant hash oil.
. That's some very interesting stuff you have there, young man. ;o) I've been reading what I can, when I can on that since I first saw you post it some time ago. I can't say that I buy it, just yet, but it's very interesting theory.
"The US was the single largest contributor to global oil supply growth last year, with a net 395,000 barrels per day (b/d)," said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America, comparing the Dakota fields to a new North Sea.
#2. To: A K A Stone (#1)
"Peak oil is bullshit for losers and suckers."
#3. To: Ferret Mike (#2)
"Peak oil is bullshit for losers and suckers."
#4. To: A K A Stone (#1)
Peak oil is bullshit for losers and suckers. That way you accept paying more for something in abundant supply.
#5. To: A K A Stone (#1)
#6. To: All (#5)
#7. To: A K A Stone (#3)
"Did you read the article?"
#8. To: mcgowanjm (#5)
#9. To: Ferret Mike (#8)
I hate to break it to the lad; but oil ain't water, and it ain't fish.
#10. To: Ferret Mike, Muuron, All (#8)
#11. To: mcgowanjm (#4)
My family's been doing oil my entire life.
#12. To: mcgowanjm (#5)
This. is. insane.
#13. To: A K A Stone (#11)
So what.
#14. To: A K A Stone (#12)
No insane is your prediction about Florida being evacuated and lots of people dying. That was insane.
#15. To: mcgowanjm (#14)
Everytime you print that I think of Yukon.
#16. To: A K A Stone (#12)
#17. To: mcgowanjm (#16)
Powerful quake destroys building, kills many in SE Turkish city of Van “There are so many dead. Several buildings have collapsed, there is too much destruction,” Zulfikar Arapoglu, the mayor of Ercis told NTV...
#18. To: A K A Stone, All (#15)
(Edited)
Every time that I mention what you said, you think of Yukon. That's strange.
#19. To: mcgowanjm (#18)
#20. To: All (#18)
#21. To: A K A Stone (#19)
Ok you are refreshing my memory a bit.
#22. To: A K A Stone (#17)
Do you think earthquakes are becoming more numerous and stronger?
Expanding Earth plugs right into Electric Universe Theory,
Mainstream science gets it wrong with their Gravity dominant cosmos model.
The Universe is Electric.....Gravity is a byproduct of Electromagnetism flow and mass at the atomic level.
#23. To: Parrot with speed dial (#22)
#24. To: Parrot with speed dial (#22)
#25. To: A K A Stone (#0)
Say hello to your grandma for me.
#26. To: A K A Stone (#11)
My family's been doing oil my entire life.
Say hello to your grandma for me.
#27. To: Parrot with speed dial (#22)
Expanding Earth plugs right into Electric Universe Theory, Mainstream science gets it wrong with their Gravity dominant cosmos model. The Universe is Electric.....Gravity is a byproduct of Electromagnetism flow and mass at the atomic level.
#28. To: We The People (#27)
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Mail] [Sign-in] [Setup] [Help] [Register]