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Title: U.S. Payrolls Rise 103,000 in September, Jobless Rate at 9.1%
Source:
Bloomberg News
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com
Published: Oct 7, 2011
Author: Bob Willis
Post Date: 2011-10-07 08:35:52 by war
Keywords: None
Views: 13628
Comments: 30
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Employers added more payrolls than forecast in September, job gains were revised up in the prior two months and hours and earnings increased, helping ease concerns the U.S. labor market is deteriorating. Payrolls climbed by 103,000 workers after a revised 57,000 increase the prior month that was more than originally estimated, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a rise of 60,000. The gain reflected the return to work of 45,000 telecommunications employees. The jobless rate held at 9.1 percent. Faster job growth is a sign employers remain confident the U.S. will avoid a renewed slump, even as unemployment is forecast to remain above 8 percent through 2013. The risk that the world’s largest economy may fall back into a recession has prompted the Federal Reserve and President Barack Obama to announce further measures to sustain the expansion. “We are in a slow-growth recovery,” Patrick O’Keefe, director of economist research at J.H. Cohn LLP in Roseland, New Jersey, said before the report. “We are not losing ground but we are not making inroads into the extraordinarily high level of unemployment.” Estimates of the 91 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for overall payrolls ranged from a decline of 50,000 to a 115,000 increase. The unemployment rate was projected to hold at 9.1 percent, according to the survey median. Unemployment Rate Unemployment has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch of such elevated joblessness since monthly records began in 1948. Private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, rose 137,000 after a gain of 32,000 in the prior month, the Labor Department said. The share of the eligible population holding a job rose to 58.3 percent from 58.2 percent. While a labor dispute at Verizon Communications Inc. depressed employment in August, its resolution added about 45,000 workers back to payrolls last month. Conversely, the return of state government workers in Minnesota that lifted the August payroll count by 23,000 wasn’t repeated last month. Government Employment Government payrolls decreased by 34,000 in September. Employment at state governments rose by 2,000 last month while local government employment slumped 35,000. Factory payrolls declined 13,000 in September, the biggest decrease since August 2010, after a 4,000 decline in August. Employment at service-providers increased 85,000 in September, the most since April. Construction employment climbed 26,000 last month, the biggest gain since February and led by a jump in non-residential building payrolls. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent to $23.12, today’s report showed. The average work week for all workers climbed six minutes to 34.3 hours. The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- increased to 16.5 percent, the highest this year, from 16.2 percent. The number of Americans working part-time for “economic reasons” jumped 444,000 to 9.3 million. Through August, the economy had recovered about 1.9 million of the 8.75 million jobs lost as a result of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009. 200,000 a Month Sustained increases of around 200,000 a month are needed to bring unemployment down about a percentage point over a year, according to Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York. The economy expanded at a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter following a 0.4 percent gain in the first three months of the year, the weakest performance in two years, the Commerce Department reported last week. Consumer spending grew 0.7 percent, the least since the last three months of 2009. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, says the odds of a renewed U.S. recession are rising as confidence and spending have slumped. This week he said he saw a 40 percent chance the U.S. would slip back into a recession over the next year. Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, forecasts a “mild recession.” Fed on Economy “Economic growth remains slow,” Fed policy makers said Sept. 21 as they announced a plan to bring down longer-term lending rates. While officials said they “expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters,” they anticipate “the unemployment rate will decline only gradually.” Obama last month proposed a $447 billion jobs plan that economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast would help avoid a return to recession by maintaining growth and pushing down the unemployment rate next year. Citigroup Inc., the third-biggest U.S. bank, is among firms that have turned more cautious about hiring. It said last month it will limit hiring to only “critical” jobs as the economic slowdown continues and revenue slumps. “We are currently only filling positions we believe are critical to the line of business or function,” Shannon Bell, a spokeswoman for the New York-based bank, said in an interview Sept. 15. New York City States and local governments are freezing hiring or cutting staff. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration this week asked agency heads to cut spending by $2 billion over the next 18 months and freeze hiring on concern that a slowing economy may reduce city revenue. “We’re looking at extreme economic uncertainty, and state and federal governments that are likely to further cut funds they return to the city,” Caswell Holloway, deputy mayor for operations, said in a statement. The mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP. Some companies are planning to boost payrolls. Ford Motor Co. this week said it has committed to add about 12,000 hourly jobs in its U.S. manufacturing plants by 2015 as part of an agreement with the United Auto Workers. Ford said it will be “in-sourcing” jobs from Mexico, China and Japan. Ford said this will be 5,750 hourly jobs more than a previously announced 7,000 positions to be added by the end of 2012.
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#1. To: war (#0)
Revisions, Birth/Death Model drop it to -142,000. watch...;}
Another flat out lie by those media outlets desperate to prop up the Owe-bama administration. 45,000 of these so called 'newly created jobs' are in fact the Verizon Workers RETURNING TO WORK AFTER GOING ON STRIKE. That cleared up, the fact is even if you accept the LIE HERE, given its October holiday hiring season, this is so far below 'normal' it should frighten the hell out of everybody.
Proxy IP's are amusing.....lmao
Huh? This report was issued by BLS which specifically cites the affect of the strike. That same strike removed 45K workers from the last report. And, finally, had you ACTUALLY READ THE ARTICLE then "you'd" see [sic] that this fact was both included in the BLS report and reported in the article. /twit That cleared up, the fact is even if you accept the LIE HERE, given its October holiday hiring season Wha...huh? This is the job situation report for SEPTEMBER, Boofer.
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
I think the Bottom 99% are...;} ZH: "The second "fly", and the one that will certainly be used as a talking point by politicians, was the average unemployment duration. At 40.5 weeks, it just hit a new all time record." And looking now for the Civilian Participation Rate and Quantity. Should still be at a pre 1980 low on Quantity. All time on %age.
MISH: On August. His Reports come out about 10:30 on the NFP #'s. " BLS Back in Outer-Space Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That is statistically invalid. However, in my estimation the BLS is back in outer-space. It is clear the economy is slowing and the BLS model has not picked it up. The model is horrendously wrong at economic turns. -18,000 may look reasonable but bear in mind that January and July are revision months where the BLS adjusts for prior errors. I believe the BLS has missed another economic turn, and the BLS is terribly wrong following turns."
Via: AP: State officials have set their sights on another potential pool of workers to help bridge Georgia’s severe farm labor gap: prisoners. The idea is to put nonviolent inmates — who are spending the end of their prison terms at one of the state’s 13 transitional centers — to work picking fruits and vegetables across Georgia. This is at least the state’s second attempt to tackle the labor shortages since enacting a tough new immigration law many farmers blame for their problems.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4ieoXFSAGAg/To71OyPy10I/AAAAAAAAK28/VLqkAo9obU8/s320/EmployPopSept2011.jpg http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ " The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1% (red line). The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 64.2% in September (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although some of the decline is due to the aging population. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.3% in September (black line). Note: the household survey showed a strong gain in jobs, and that is why the unemployment rate could hold steady with few payroll jobs added - and the participation rate increase." The Household Survey gets thrown in and taken out at random. Whichever makes the NFP look better.
per the above. Calculated Risk drinks the Company's Kool Aid but does keep the charts accurate...;} " Percent Job Losses During Recessions The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The red line is moving sideways - and I'll need to expand the graph soon. This was still a weak report, but better than August (although the 45,000 Verizon workers made a big difference). There were decent upwards revisions to the July and August reports too. I'll have much more soon ...
By 10:30 we'll have this nailed...;} ZH: US Needs To Generate 261,200 Jobs Per Month To Return To Pre-Depression Employment By End Of Obama Second Term Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2011 - 09:27 HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment Every few months we rerun an analysis of how many jobs the US economy has to generate to return to the unemployment rate as of December 2007 when the Great Financial Crisis started, by the end of Obama's potential second term in November 2016.
Digging into the numbers: - 137k "new" private sector jobs, but 45k of those are returning Verizon strikers, so really only 92k new private sector jobs - 37k government jobs lost Net gain: 55k jobs The conservative recovery continues, another month of declining private sector employment and another month of drab private sector job growth.
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Target of 600 S&P to go to Bottom Neckline.... End of October '11...just sayin'...;} And here's the Labor Force Participation #. And how many people ARE employed.... Keeps Shrinking... ZH Commentor: "Fri, 10/07/2011 - 09:30 | Link to Comment papaswamp papaswamp's picture The problem is they didn't create any jobs. The size of the laborforce shrank by 322,000 (not seasonally adjusted) but the BLS added 500,000 workers in their seasonally adjusted number. The rise is total fabrication and the maket is running with it. No one reads they just react to headlines and rumors.
I think the Bottom 99% are...;} Herman Cain: "If you don’t have a job and you’re not rich, blame yourself!" This is no longer Obama's fault in the eyes of Conservatives, the blame rests solely with the unemployed for not getting a job.
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I found the number to be pretty weak. What I do find hilarious is that a) none of the BOTS are cheering the fact that public sector job growth has been declining under this POTUS and b) that Boofer opened his mouth and once again reveraled his ignorance. He **thought** that his number was for October...
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
LOD nailed him on this - and other statements, including a Big Lie in Cain's book - last night.
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
You mean "public"...
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
- 37k government jobs lost Net gain: 55k jobs The conservative recovery continues, another month of declining private sector employment and another month of drab private sector job growth. rotflmao. So Owe-bama and Reid are BOTH LAME DUCKS? Quite the admission, DUMBASS.
Proxy IP's are amusing.....lmao
Herman Cain took unemployment off the table as an issue for Republicans when he told the unemployed to "blame yourself." And as far as the boof, that's why I have him on filter.
Tagline for sale - inquire within
yep - almost 600,000 public sector jobs gone since 2008. The economy should be roaring as a result, right?
Tagline for sale - inquire within
lmao. Thats why I routinely make you look like a talking points copying chump, DUMBASS.
Proxy IP's are amusing.....lmao
This is no longer Obama's fault in the eyes of Conservatives, the blame rests solely with the unemployed for not getting a job. In the MACRO sense, of course big government types in both parties are to blame for the current economic troubles. In the MICRO sense, individuals have three choices when they lose their job: 1.) Get another job, even if it is less than ideal, or causes some other hardship, e.g., having to take a pay cut, having to travel, having to move, having to take night and weekend classes to learn new skills, etc. 2.) Create your own job. Many Americas have done this in the last couple of years, including myself, my wife, and my best friend. All of us are doing pretty well. 3.) Collect a government check, and sit at home watching your belly grow. There are jobs available in America. Millions of them. Some require specialty skills. Some require people to take pay cuts. Some require people to move. People don't have any incentive to go after these jobs, or create their own when they can collect a government check. That is the fault of a public policy that rewards sloth over work. Unfortunately, Obama wants to do exactly the wrong thing once again by extending unemployment benefits beyond 99 weeks. He's digging his own grave with his no- nothing, socialist ideology.
How many times are you going to post this?
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
He has you on filter, Boofer.
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
Last night on LOD he blamed the financial meltdown for most of the unemployment...he tried to put the financial meltdown on Obama. LOD made him look pretty silly. Cain is going to have a military problem, too, btw. He also lied in his book about how old he was when the Civil Rights Movement was hitting stride...
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
On the MSM avoiding OccupyWallSt. Cain was responding to same. And if he(Cain) and Romney know what the OWSers are and think they are Class warfare, the MSM knows as well as the rest of America...;}
A Black republican has been an oxymoron since Hoover and the 1932 Election.
Go on. Say it: "0bama."
"It's not surprising, then, they [White Pennsylvanians] get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." ~ Comrade-in-Chief Barry Hussein 0bama
Wow - 1932?? Not much has changed since then...bwaahaa.... Yeah, how dare blacks be conservative or Republican. Wut wit dat, Whitey? White Commie/liberal edict: "ALL people of color are hereby COMMANDED to be obedient pods; And COMMANDED from BIRTH (*snicker*) to live on the Dim plantation." (RIGHT, Jimmy?)
"It's not surprising, then, they [White Pennsylvanians] get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations." ~ Comrade-in-Chief Barry Hussein 0bama
You PINGED Officer EEOC? Too rich...took advantage of entitlement his entire life and now comes off as some ardent boot strapper... HILARIOUS...
Stay Hungry...Stay Foolish --Steve Jobs
State and local public sector jobs, not Federal. Big difference. The State and local governments are simply being accountable to the local people.
Obama has played at being a president while enjoying the perks … golf, insanely expensive vacations at tax-payer expense. He has ignored the responsibilities of the job; no plans, no budgets, no alternatives … just finger pointing; making him a complete failure as a president
#2. To: All (#0)
#3. To: Badeye (#2)
(Edited)
Another flat out lie by those media outlets desperate to prop up the Owe-bama administration.
#4. To: Badeye (#2)
it should frighten the hell out of everybody.
#5. To: All (#4)
#6. To: All (#4)
(Edited)
#7. To: All (#6)
#8. To: war (#3)
#9. To: All (#8)
#10. To: All (#9)
#11. To: war (#0)
#12. To: All (#10)
(Edited)
#13. To: mcgowanjm (#4)
it should frighten the hell out of everybody.
#14. To: go65 (#11)
#15. To: go65 (#13)
This is no longer Obama's fault in the eyes of Conservatives, the blame rests solely with the unemployed for not getting a job.
#16. To: go65 (#11)
month of declining private sector employment
#17. To: go65 (#11)
137k "new" private sector jobs, but 45k of those are returning Verizon strikers, so really only 92k new private sector jobs
#18. To: war (#14)
I found the number to be pretty weak. What I do find hilarious is that a) none of the BOTS are cheering the fact that public sector job growth has been declining under this POTUS and b) that Boofer opened his mouth and once again reveraled his ignorance. He **thought** that his number was for October...
#19. To: war (#16)
You mean "public"...
#20. To: go65 (#18)
And as far as the boof, that's why I have him on filter.
#21. To: go65 (#13)
(Edited)
Herman Cain: "If you don’t have a job and you’re not rich, blame yourself!"
Honest Socialism
#22. To: jwpegler (#21)
#23. To: Badeye (#20)
#24. To: go65 (#18)
(Edited)
Herman Cain took unemployment off the table as an issue for Republicans when he told the unemployed to "blame yourself."
#25. To: war, go65 (#13)
Herman Cain: "If you don’t have a job and you’re not rich, blame yourself!"
#26. To: war (#24)
Cain is going to have a military problem, to, btw. He also lied in his book about how old he was when the Civil Rights Movement was hitting stride...
#27. To: mcgowanjm (#4)
"The second "fly", and the one that will certainly be used as a talking point by politicians, was the average unemployment duration.
#28. To: mcgowanjm, e_type_jag (#26)
(Edited)
A Black republican has been an oxymoron since Hoover and the 1932 Election.
#29. To: Liberator (#28)
#30. To: go65 (#19)
almost 600,000 public sector jobs gone since 2008.
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