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United States News Title: Democratic pollster: Panic Democracy Corps polled voters in 60 congressional districts that Republicans flipped in 2010. President Obama carried 48 of them and the other 12 should be competitive. One of the 12 is West Virginia 1, which was held by a Democrat named Mollohan (father and son) from 1969 until last year, when Republican David McKinley won the seat. So how is Obama faring in those 60 battleground congressional districts? Poorly. He trails Rick Perry 49%-45% in these 60 districts and Mitt Romney 49%-43%. While much of the Democracy Corps poll concentrates on Congressional Republicans, the man whose name likely will be at the top of the ticket is Barack Obama. And his numbers are slipping. In March, his approval/disapproval numbers were even at 48%-47%. 6 months later in September, he is at 41%-55%. Among Democrats, his approval slipped 6 points from 87%-10% down to 81%-16%. Among Republicans, his approval slipped from 14%-81% down to 9%-87%. Among independents, his approval slipped from 39%-54% to 35%-59%. If this is an indication of how he would do nationally (and 60 congressional districts represent about one-seventh of the land) he is in trouble. So goes a president, so goes his party in a presidential election year — unless the individual party candidates somehow divorce themselves from their nominee, as Democrats did in 1972 and again in 1984. Disapproval for the 60 Republican congressmen in these districts has slipped as well — to 40%-32%, not exactly a very target rich environment for Democrats. Also Republicans are winning the battle of the registration. In March, 44% identified themselves as Democrats, 46% said Republicans. 6 months later, it is 41% Democrats, 50% Republicans. You can run Casey Anthony and win if your district has more Republicans and they are fired up to vote Obama out. And Republicans are pumped. In March, 84% said they’d vote for the incumbent Republican. Now, 89% will — a gain of 5 points. Democrats slipped 2 points. Independents continue to favor the Republican incumbent 50% to 31%. Among first-time voters who voted for Obama in 2008, 39% say they will vote for the Republican incumbent. That’s up from 31% in March. The spin from pollster Stan Greenberg is hilarious: “The Explosive Republican-Obama Battleground… This is obviously not the best moment to judge the Democrats’ eventual fortunes—with fewer voters identifying as Democrats, with Democrats themselves less enthusiastic about the president, and with his overall approval rating down 7 points and losing independents in these districts. We do not yet know the public’s reaction to the president’s latest initiatives, but there is reason to believe they can help him and the Democrats here.” The key findings were listed as: *Negative personal feelings about the incumbent members have jumped 10 points since March; disapproval of how he or she is handling the job has jumped 7 points. *The percent saying they “can’t re-elect” is up 4 points to 49 percent – compared to just 40 percent who say they “will re-elect because the incumbent is doing a good job and addressing issues important to voters.” This is substantially worse than the position of Democratic incumbents two years ago. *Among independents, disapproval of incumbent Republican House members jumped 12 points, and a large majority of independents (54 to 37 percent) say they “can’t vote to re-elect” the incumbent. *There has been a 9-point rise in the number saying the incumbent will not work with both parties to get things done; a 6-point rise in the number saying their representative does not fight for people in the district. *While the incumbent Republicans are at 50 percent in the named ballot, a slight improvement since March, the gains were produced almost entirely by consolidation of Republicans. They did not improve their vote position with independents. *Attacks on the Republicans in this balanced survey have a dramatic impact on the position of these incumbents. After the attacks and messages — with Medicare figuring centrally — the race for Congress is dead even at 45 to 45 percent. One in ten voters shifts away from these vulnerable incumbents. I am no pollster and I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but it seems to me that if your man just fell 15 points in job approval in just 6 months, your prospects are dim and getting dimmer. But that is just me. And we are more than a year away. Maybe Obama pulls it off. Maybe Democrats pull off a 1972 and win a few of those seats back. Oh did I mention that Republican state legislatures redistricted many of those 60 House districts? Well, good luck, Democrats.
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#1. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
Krugman publicly wishing aliens would invade, so as to save the Owe-bama Presidency last month was the clearest, and most amusing, sign the Dems know this is a one term failure, and a landslide in the House and Senate for the GOP.
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