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Title: Leading Economic Indicators in U.S. Rise 0.3%
Source:
Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011- ... dicators-in-u-s-rise-0-3-.html
Published: Sep 22, 2011
Author: Timothy R. Homan
Post Date: 2011-09-22 10:35:26 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 4339
Comments: 5
The index of U.S. leading economic indicators increased more than forecast in August, pointing to a faster pace of growth heading into next year. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.3 percent after a 0.6 percent gain in July, the New York-based research group said today. Economists projected a 0.1 percent rise in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The report supports forecasts by the Federal Reserve for a pickup in growth in coming quarters after gains in employment stalled last month. The Fed yesterday decided to extend maturities of its Treasury holdings in a bid to push down long- term borrowing costs and said the economy faces “significant downside risks.” “The data would suggest continued modest economic growth through yearend,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said before the report. “Households are still spending, albeit sluggishly.” Another report today showed that more Americans than forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week, a sign that the labor market is struggling to improve. Applications for jobless benefits decreased 9,000 in the week ended Sept. 17 to 423,000, according to the Labor Department in Washington. Economists forecast 420,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped last week to the weakest point since the recession ended in June 2009, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed today. The gauge fell to minus 52.1 in the period to Sept. 18 from minus 49.3 the prior week. Sentiment among men slumped to an all-time low. Estimates of the 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the Conference Board’s leading economic index ranged from a drop of 0.5 percent to an increase of 0.5 percent. Four of the 10 components of the leading index contributed to the increase in August. In addition to the money supply and building permits, they included slower supplier-delivery times. The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent from the prior month. The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production -- the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions. The gauge of lagging indicators rose 0.3 percent last month. The index measures business lending, length of employment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit. Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and money supply adjusted for inflation. “The consumer is, from what we can tell, quite cautious,” Ken Powell, chairman and chief executive officer of Minneapolis-based General Mills Inc. (GIS), said in a conference call with analysts yesterday. “We think that the environment there is going to continue to be challenging.” The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, expanded at a 1 percent annual rate in the second quarter after growing at a 0.4 percent pace in the prior quarter, according to Commerce Department figures. Payrolls were unchanged in August, as the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, the Labor Department said Sept. 2. “There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets,” the Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday in a statement after a two-day meeting in Washington. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke expanded use of unconventional monetary tools for a second straight meeting after job gains stalled and the government lowered its estimate of second-quarter growth. Fed officials yesterday said they will replace some bonds in their portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to further reduce borrowing costs and keep the economy from relapsing into a recession. Gross domestic product will advance 1.6 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2012, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists earlier this month.
Economists’ Estimates
Lagging Indicators
‘Downside Risks’
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
Uh-huh. They've been saying our GDP is in positive territory for a long time, even though the REAL GDP has been in negative territory since 2005. Reality is in blue:
#2. To: Capitalist Eric (#1)
One of several graphs that you've been unable to explain exactly what it is charting...
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestGross domestic product will advance 1.6 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2012,
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