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Title: Deflation Here.
Source:
zerohedge
URL Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank- ... -risk-bear-and-lehman#comments
Published: Sep 22, 2011
Author: Submitted by Tyler Durden
Post Date: 2011-09-22 09:47:31 by mcgowanjm
Keywords: None
Views: 14947
Comments: 40
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors CDS - Hoarding and Downgrades and Collateral "Hedge funds will unwind or assign profitable trades, which will force the bank to return collateral to the hedge fund. It is a subtle, but painful, way for a bank to experience a run. It happened with Bear and with Lehman.".....;}
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#1. To: mcgowanjm (#0)
Duh...
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
See, the thing about Gold is it's Only 'good' during 'stable' times. When you're in the Wilderness, a place where time is not on your side, you will need something besides gold to survive. Imagine you in a Real Wilderness. You have pounds of Gold and an AK-47, loaded...;}. But you're hungry, and need shelter. You meet a man with beans, rice, bacon, flour. And a Multi room dwelling. O, and he's Up Armored, in case you think you're Gun might decide the issue. You'll get enough food/room for days, or until your gold runs out. Then you'll have to leave....;}
As All the Duh'ese move to My side of the ship...;} What I really love about these days is All of the folks who were flogging the $ breaking 72, and Gold breaking 2000 saying that they were calling for a 50% retracement. Things like that....
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts...scale=on;source=undefined And when the US Gov't Has to take over BAC, 100%, no questions asked, with ALL CDS declared Null & Void... will we get arrests and prosecutions then? ;)
And these Talking Heads have Zero Cred. Like Christine Romans transitioning from AM/View/CoffeeKlatch Chatterbox to Super Serious Financial Guru, in front of Serious Multi Screen Background. LMFAO
Will prices at the grocery and beer stores follow suit?
Gold down $81. Gold is a proxy for the CRB...Commodities Research Bureau. Farmers are about to be crushed. But food/fiber supplies will be harder to get.
Silver at $35.
Actual title: Bank Of America Is Becoming A "Counterparty Risk" Like Bear And Lehman Actual article: I mentioned earlier this month that I expected banks to keep their hedges on for the rest of this month so that they could show the minimum amount of exposure possible on their quarter end statements. With the crisis increasing and spreading, this hasn't changed. So there will continue to be no profit taking from banks on their hedges until at least October. If anything, as the crisis is expanding to more financial institutions both in Europe and here, we will likely see banks adding to their hedges. Yesterday's downgrade of BAC was potentially problematic for credit markets. I am less concerned about the holding company downgrade. Downgrading the bank to A2 from Aa3 could become problematic. That is the entity most derivative counterparties will face. A2 is still fine, but I suspect many counterparties will be having meetings over the next few days to discuss how comfortable they are facing BAC as a derivative counterparty. It might be wrong, and unnecessary, but it is something that will be occurring. BAC should be doing everything in their power to address this potential risk immediately. The risk of ratings downgrades to a bank is twofold. On a basic level, it may reduce the flows they see as counterparties prefer to trade with higher rated entities for their derivative trades. That is manageable. The bigger, and far more problematic issue, will be if firms cut their lines to that bank. This would cause banks to unwind or assign existing trades, or to buy protection on the downgraded banks to "hedge their hedge". Protection buying would drive their spread higher (if this was all exchange traded, it wouldn't be an issue). Unwinds could force the bank to raise some cash. Most hedge funds will have one way collateral agreements with banks, so that on any positive mark to market, they are posting collateral to the bank, which the bank can typically use "rehypothecate". Hedge funds will unwind or assign profitable trades, which will force the bank to return collateral to the hedge fund. It is a subtle, but painful, way for a bank to experience a run. It happened with Bear and with Lehman. The downgrades yesterday were not too bad, but, this is worth watching. If it occurs, it will take some time as bank hedging desks in particular tend to be slow to move or change a counterparty risk limits. Hedge funds have more exciting things to do today than worry too much about how much collateral they have posted at any individual bank, but eventually they will discuss it. Banks should prepare for this. Maybe they can convince counterparties to maintain the status quo, but they shouldn't be fooled into believing the problem isn't there, just because it didn't occur instantly. With emerging markets also joining the sell-off it is hard to find an asset class that looks particularly cheap, but LCDX in particular is looking interesting. HY16 and LCDX16 have both underperformed the market and even the HYG/JNK etf's. HY16 is down over 10% from its peak. Basically inline with the move in stocks. I don't think we have seen another round of capitulation in the cash bond market and are still riding a wave of outflows, but HY16 seems to offer value. HYG needs to sell off 2 to 3% more to be as interesting. LCDX has been beaten down due to concern about LIBOR remaining low for an extended period. Since many of the loans have LIBOR floors, that isn't as horrible as it seems, and if we are about to take another big leg down in risk assets, the senior secured nature is worth something, and trading at a steep discount to "par", there is actually upside. I just don't see any need to rush into credit. Hedges will remain in place until at least October, the impact of bank downgrades hasn't fully made its way through the system, and there is supply, but I would rather own these assets here than stocks for risk/reward. How you get "deflation" out of this, when the word doesn't appear on the entire page, is wishful thinking on your part. Oh, BTW, it doesn't seem like we're in a deflationary period, when I have to pay $4.10 per gallon of regular gas, or go grocery shopping, or pay my utility bill... INFLATION is here, and it's running at ~12%, as the graph shows below (reality is in BLUE, Brian S (bullobama) propaganda in red: To :Skippy, toe-jam, old man Fred Alzheimers Mertz, _jim, loonymom/ming, e-type-jackoff, goober56, Wrek, calcon, dummy DwarF, continental op, Biff, gobsheit and meguro Actual Chart: www.finviz.com/fut_chart....t=YM&cot=124601;t=YM&p=d1 8500 Dow in a week. Minus whatever the US Treasury thinks it can do. How about another FMOC 'Outlook'...LMFAO...8D
A friend's whiz son predicts $65 oil soon.
Should've sold last week.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
OUTSTANDING!!!!!!!! Time to buy MORE!!!!!! Thanks for the good news- I'd not gotten to Kitco yet...
To :Skippy, toe-jam, old man Fred Alzheimers Mertz, _jim, loonymom/ming, e-type-jackoff, goober56, Wrek, calcon, dummy DwarF, continental op, Biff, gobsheit and meguro Maybe, maybe not.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
Silver at $35. How is the spoon market? ;)
?
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
I have a set of three silver one ounce commemoratives issued by Secretariat's people in the seventies. Each one depicts one of his triple crown wins.
They must be worth a small fortune. I'll guess they're worth more together than sold separately.
Very limited market...I would imagine you'd not get much more than melt for them...
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
www.ebay.com/itm/American...Silver-Coin-/120765388131 I found this but it's for the Triple Crown not each individual race. I'll keep looking. I may Edit this if I find some better info.
Lots of Antiques going to the smelter these days.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
eBay is blocked at work...what's the ask?
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
Yep...especially 19th century silverware...
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
It ended last month, 11 bids, final $103.61.
Okay...I stand corrected. My error is in underestimating the market for Secretariat stuff, I'm sure...
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
My error, I searched under commemorative silver coins - I read too fast. www.ebay.com/itm/BOXED-SE...ain_0&hash=item4aaee9c131 1 bid at $169.99 with 3 days to go. Could this be what you have?
That looks like it. Mine has a little more tarnish, and one of the hinges on the box has a little rust.I paid $29.00 for it in 1990 from a coin shop.
I'm curious so I'll check back in three days to that link above.
Or the crazinesss of collectors of racehorse stuff.
My experience with eBay and collectable items is that you see 90% of the bidders and bids in the last 3-4 hours.
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
And some of their deep pockets.
. Honest to God Eric, these libTURD asswipes are simply INSANE. There is no other way to explain their behavior.
Spoiled, stupid and ignorant, brain dead phuckwads, libTURD fools, tools, and idiots, are the real sickness; the messiah "king" obammy and his regime are only the symptoms.
OMG! SPANG! X RING! ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You SO owe me a cup of coffee and a keyboard! GOOD ONE! LOL!
Spoiled, stupid and ignorant, brain dead phuckwads, libTURD fools, tools, and idiots, are the real sickness; the messiah "king" obammy and his regime are only the symptoms.
Winning bid: US $366.00 On that e-bay item linked above...not too shabby. Good purchase MG!
Wow!
"You post articles- intellectual excrement, really- that support your inane, insipid mentality, on a regular basis. Capitalist Eric
This place is dead. I'll check back in later.
On that e-bay item linked above...not too shabby. Good purchase MG! Thanks for the post, I forgot to look.
It sure is.
"You post articles- intellectual excrement, really- that support your inane, insipid mentality, on a regular basis. Capitalist Eric
Maybe you can sell the set to CE the silver bug.
I think she'd do better on eBay.
"You post articles- intellectual excrement, really- that support your inane, insipid mentality, on a regular basis. Capitalist Eric
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#2. To: All (#0)
#3. To: war (#1)
Duh...
#4. To: All (#3)
#5. To: All (#4)
#6. To: mcgowanjm (#2)
#7. To: Fred Mertz (#6)
#8. To: All (#7)
#9. To: mcgowanjm (#0)
CDS - Hoarding and Downgrades and Collateral
From: Capitalist Eric Message:
You're SOCIALIST morons. ESAD.
#10. To: Capitalist Eric (#9)
#11. To: mcgowanjm (#10)
#12. To: mcgowanjm (#8)
Silver at $35.
#13. To: lucysmom (#12)
Silver at $35. Should've sold last week.
From: Capitalist Eric Message:
You're SOCIALIST morons. ESAD.
#14. To: Capitalist Eric (#13)
Time to buy MORE!!!!!!
#15. To: lucysmom (#12)
Should've sold last week.
#16. To: socalv8 (#15)
How is the spoon market? ;)
#17. To: Fred Mertz (#11)
A friend's whiz son predicts $65 oil soon.
#18. To: mininggold (#17)
#19. To: mininggold (#17)
I have a set of three silver one ounce commemoratives issued by Secretariat's people in the seventies. Each one depicts one of his triple crown wins.
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#20. To: mininggold (#17)
#21. To: war (#19)
Very limited market...I would imagine you'd not get much more than melt for them...
#22. To: Fred Mertz (#20)
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#23. To: lucysmom (#21)
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#24. To: war (#22)
#25. To: Fred Mertz (#24)
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#26. To: mininggold, war (#17)
BOXED SET OF THREE SECRETARIAT .999 ONE OUNCE SILVER BARS 1973 TRIPLE CROWN WINS
#27. To: Fred Mertz (#26)
1 bid at $169.99 with 3 days to go. Could this be what you have?
#28. To: mininggold (#27)
#29. To: war (#25)
My error is in underestimating the market for Secretariat stuff, I'm sure...
#30. To: Fred Mertz (#28)
I'm curious so I'll check back in three days to that link above.
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#31. To: mininggold (#29)
#32. To: Capitalist Eric (#9)
#33. To: socalv8, lucysidiotmommy (#15)
How is the spoon market? ;)
#34. To: mininggold, war, lucysmom (#27)
#35. To: Fred Mertz (#34)
Winning bid: US $366.00
#36. To: lucysmom (#35)
#37. To: Fred Mertz (#34)
Winning bid: US $366.00
#38. To: Fred Mertz (#36)
This place is dead.
#39. To: mininggold (#37)
#40. To: Fred Mertz, mininggold (#39)
Maybe you can sell the set to CE the silver bug.
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