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Title: Rick Perry is Right: Social Security Really is a Ponzi Scheme
Source: Dissenting Opinions
URL Source: http://jwpegler.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... -is-right-social-security.html
Published: Sep 10, 2011
Author: Eric Blankenburg
Post Date: 2011-09-10 21:05:00 by jwpegler
Keywords: None
Views: 114576
Comments: 228

Rick Perry's comments during this week's GOP debate at the Reagan library has caused quite a stir in the liberal media.

During the debate, Governor Perry defended the words in his book, calling Social Security a "Ponzi scheme".

After the debate, the "analysis" on MSNBC was truly fun to watch as every commentator sat shelled shocked over the fact that a politician would dare to use these words to describe America's most sacred welfare program.

The only person on the panel who had a clue about what might be going on was Ed Schultz who at one point questioned whether or not whether young people would stick with Obama or jump on the Perry bandwagon.

Unlike the political and media establishment in this country, young people understand that they are going to get the short end of the Social Security "inter-generational compact". Schultz surprisingly realized that Perry's message might resonant with young people.

Let's take a quick look at the Social Security system and see if Perry might be on to something.

The people who got into the Social Security system very early got back on average 15 times the amount of money they paid in. They got a great deal and were raving proponents of the system.

The people receiving Social Security benefits today are getting back on average 2 1/2 to 3 times what they paid in. They are also generally strong proponents of the system.

Today, Social Security is paying out more every year than it takes it. We are borrowing money from the foreigners, like the Chinese and Saudis to pay current benefits. As the huge Baby Boom generation retires, the amount of debt we incur each year will quickly escalate until it blows up in our face and old people without resources really do wind up in the street.

So, what happens when my generation starts to retire in 15 to 20 years and what will happen to my kids?

We will all be left holding the bag.

There is a financial MODEL that describes this. The model is called a Pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme or a Bernie Madoff scheme. The people who get it in early make out like bandits and the people who get it late get screwed.

That is exactly how the Social Security system will play out.

The fact is that the Social Security is a pay-as-you­-go welfare system that transfers money from young, struggling families to relatively well-to-do retired people. There isn't any "trust fund". The words "trust fund" are used to describe a mountain of debt. A mountain of debt is NOT a trust fund. It's a mountain of debt. Today, the mountain of debt in the Social Security system is so great that it cannot be paid.

Peel away the emotion, the Orwellian language about the "trust fund", and the other political rhetoric, and just look at the financial facts. Then this all becomes very clear.

Rick Perry is absolutely right and I am actually impressed that a politician would tell the truth about this. It's truly amazing.

The big question is what can be done?

Long term, people need to be able to save for their own retirements. Social Security needs to be taken back to it's roots as a program that supplements the income of retirees who are truly poor, through no fault of their own.

Today, 25% of people over 65 have pension or investment income that places them in the "wealthy" category. They still get Social Security benefits, so long as they don't work for their income. Why should young struggling families hand money over the wealthy retired people?

They shouldn't. Means testing Social Security will go a long way to make it solvent for the future.

When Social Security was implemente­d, the retirement age was 65. The average life expectancy was 59 for men and 61 for women. Most people didn't live long enough to get a check. Today, the retirement age is still 65. However, life expectancy is 73 for men and 78 for women.

The math just doesn't work.

We need to gradually raise the retirement age to keep up with life expectancy.

Bravo to Perry for telling it like it is. I certainly agree with Ed Schultz that a lot of young people will find this message appealing.

The other group who should find this message appealing are wealthy retirees who are stealing from their children's and grandchildren's future. Will they finally put their selfishness aside and say: "no more"? Probably not, but we'll see.

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#93. To: mcgowanjm (#76)

But then the Social Compact since the Winter of 32/33 is broken.

And Franklin Roosevelt is dead. So what?


Oh, God, can you ever imagine what would happen to the country if Lyndon Johnson were president? -- Jackie Kennedy

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-13   10:30:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#94. To: nolu chan (#68)
(Edited)

That is a matter of fact that a court did figure out.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may/24/business/la-fi-metlife-heirs-20110524

State Controller John Chiang and Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones ask whether the life insurer is boosting profits by delaying or failing to pay death benefits quickly enough to heirs or to search aggressively for the beneficiaries.

The overwhelming majority of claims are submitted to the company by heirs, who provide copies of death certificates, Katz said. The Social Security master death list provides "a useful safety net when the normal processes do not work," he said.

Better tracking policies should be more than just a safety net, Chiang said.

The company's motto — "Get Met. It Pays" — may not be totally accurate "because it's unclear at this time what they pay," the controller said.

"They have a business-based rationale for their practices instead of a consumer-based approach to fulfill their promises."

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-13   10:35:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#95. To: We The People (#27)

Government has proven that it can NOT be trusted with the peoples wealth.

Who can you trust? Banks? What about the stock market? Real estate? Perhaps gold buried in the backyard?

"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly

lucysmom  posted on  2011-09-13   10:35:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#96. To: lucysmom, We The People (#95)

Government has proven that it can NOT be trusted with the peoples wealth.

The govt using peoples wealth, funded the TVA, Hoover Dam, the Manhattan Project, the defeat of many evil empires (Axis and Soviet), ended pandemics in our lifetime, landed men on the moon and invented the computer and the internet.

The private sector brought us cheap internet porn.

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-13   10:38:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#97. To: jwpegler (#93)

And Franklin Roosevelt is dead. So what?

Like building a complicated machine.

Or playing chess and performing a complicated maneuver.

You have a tendency to not see when your Queen is mortally exposed.

Same Shite....;}

"Rival factions turn on leadership after the attempt to secure Bani Walid ends in chaos. Kim Sengupta reports from Tripoli

September 12, 2011

The rebels had fought their way in through the narrow streets and alleyways when they ran into an ambush. A desperate appeal for help to their comrades, exiles from Bani Walid whose advice they had followed on the assault, was answered by instructions to fall back to a rendezvous point outside the town.

But when the revolutionaries reached their destination, having fought their way out under intense fire, there was no sign of the Bani Walid contingent. Then, as urgent attempts were being made to establish communications, came salvos of mortar rounds and rockets."

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-13   10:40:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#98. To: jwpegler (#93) (Edited)

But then the Social Compact since the Winter of 32/33 is broken.

And Franklin Roosevelt is dead. So what?

Further.

The gop has been desperate in their Gambit to eliminate any trace of the New Deal.

Not realizing it signs their death warrant upon success.

# Gross US Debt Surges By $240 Billion Overnight, US Debt To GDP ... www.zerohedge.com/.../gro...-240-billion-overnight-... - Cached You +1'd this publicly. Undo Aug 3, 2011 – However, how marketable debt could increase by a whopping $125 ... of $15.003 billion, total US debt to GDP is now a post World War II high ...

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-13   10:42:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#99. To: mcgowanjm (#97)

I see that you are back on the crack pipe again today.


Oh, God, can you ever imagine what would happen to the country if Lyndon Johnson were president? -- Jackie Kennedy

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-13   10:43:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#100. To: jwpegler (#0)

When Social Security was implemente­d, the retirement age was 65. The average life expectancy was 59 for men and 61 for women. Most people didn't live long enough to get a check. Today, the retirement age is still 65. However, life expectancy is 73 for men and 78 for women.

Most of the gains in life expectancy have been made at the front end - reduction in deaths due to childhood illness. Once making it past childhood, life expectancy has only increased by a little more than 6 years for the upper class and about 2 years for the common folk.

"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly

lucysmom  posted on  2011-09-13   10:48:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#101. To: Godwinson (#96)

The private sector brought us cheap internet porn.

and ENRON (all form and no content).

"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly

lucysmom  posted on  2011-09-13   10:50:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#102. To: jwpegler (#99)

And I see that you have stopped taking your prescribed meds.

Just want to feel normal. Your old self, eh?

And of course note how your state and You, JW, miss the $$$ Quote from Jackie:

Jackie O: LBJ Had My Husband Killed www.thenewamerican.com/.....o-lbj-had-my-husband-ki... - Cached You +1'd this publicly. Undo

Aug 11, 2011 – London's Daily Mail says Jackie Onassis, the widow of President John F. Kennedy, believed Vice President Lyndon Johnson had her husband ...

JFK Assassination: Kennedy's Head Wound mcadams.posc.mu.edu/head.htm - CachedSimilar You +1'd this publicly. Undo The campaign has been to push Kennedy's head wound to the very back of his head, ... None of the three had access to the autopsy photos and x-rays, so the ...

Triangulation Assassination. # My God, they are going to kill us all. ... Å8; # Nellie Connally www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/JFKconnallyN.htm - CachedSimilar You +1'd this publicly. Undo Then, she wrote, John Connally "was hit himself by the second shot and said ...

"My God, they are going to kill us all"

And they're still in charge....8D

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-13   10:51:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#103. To: lucysmom (#100)

And the poor see SS FICA as a tax as most will not make it to 'pay off'.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-13   10:52:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#104. To: Fred Mertz (#88)

Were you in full black leather?

-------------------------------------
Whatcha lookin' at, butthead
Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?

Biff Tannen  posted on  2011-09-13   11:01:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#105. To: Biff Tannen, Fred Mertz, All (#104)

And speaking of $2.6 Trillion stolen by the US Gov't.

Here's $2.3 Trillion Missing from the Pentagon by Rumsfeld on 091001.

LMFAO worth 5 minutes.

Exactly right.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=y...8&feature=player_embedded

img]www.youtube.com/watch?fea...lpage&v=yuC_4mGTs98#t=61s

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-13   11:06:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#106. To: Biff Tannen (#104)

No, I was in my church clothes...until I hit the bedroom. It's a Catholic thing.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2011-09-13   11:06:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#107. To: Godwinson (#92)

Insurance companies amend their terms all the time. Insurance companies deny payments all the time. The investigations show insurance companies doing so on a wide scale.

Then you should not be meeting such an insurmountable problem providing an on-point example. So far you have provided an example that a court threw out because the claim was explicitly outside the pre-existing coverage, and irrelevant investigations into insurance companies not paying unclaimed benefits.

You have provided not a single example of an insurance company changing the terms of a policy during the term of paid coverage. They may always set new terms prior to entering into a new contract.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   14:41:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#108. To: nolu chan (#107) (Edited)

http://www.mlnlaw.com/Articles/Insurance-Company-Loses-Lawsuit-over-Cancelling- Coverage.shtml

INSURANCE COMPANY LOSES LAWSUIT OVER CANCELLING COVERAGE

A Boulder County, Colorado jury found that an insurance company was in breach of contract when it canceled Jennifer Latham’s health insurance coverage after her wreck. The jury awarded $37 million in damages to Latham.

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-13   14:57:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#109. To: Godwinson (#108)

A Boulder County, Colorado jury found that an insurance company was in breach of contract when it canceled Jennifer Latham’s health insurance coverage after her wreck. The jury awarded $37 million in damages to Latham.

You only document that they CANNOT LAWFULLY do as you claim. The contract can be enforced.

Unlike the Federal government program. They can just up and change the law and you cannot sue them to change it back again, or pay the benefits no longer authorized by law. There is no legal recourse.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   16:23:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#110. To: lucysmom, jwpegler, mcgowanjm, all (#91)

http://www.snopes.com/politics/socialsecurity/changes.asp

The Social Security Trust Fund was established in 1939 to receive monies collected for Social Security through payroll taxes. The monies in this fund are managed by the Department of the Treasury; they are not, nor have they ever been, put into the "general operating fund."

However, whether the Social Security Trust Fund can truly be said to be "independent" is problematic. The Social Security Act specifies that the monies in the fund may only "be invested in securities backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal government," such as treasury bills, treasury notes, and treasury bonds, as well as special issue bonds. So, essentially, the government can "invest" Social Security funds by lending them to itself, then spending that money on programs not related to Social Security (e.g., defense, foreign aid, education). The government "pays back" this money when the Social Security program redeems the bonds, but critics of the program contend Social Security will eventually fall into deficit by 2018, and the Treasury won't have the necessary cash on hand to redeem the bonds and pay back the fund. As the Social Security and Medicare Trustees themselves noted in their 2005 Annual Report:

In 2005 the Social Security tax income surplus is estimated to be more than offset by the shortfall in tax and premium income for Medicare, resulting in a small overall cash shortfall that must be covered by transfers from general fund revenues. The combined shortfall is projected to grow each year such that by 2017 net revenue flows from the general fund to the trust funds will total $515 billion, or 2.3 percent of GDP. Since neither the interest paid on the Treasury bonds held in the HI [Hospital Insurance] and OASDI Trust Funds, nor their redemption, provides any net new income to the Treasury, the full amount of the required Treasury payments to these trust funds must be financed by some combination of increased taxation, increased Federal borrowing and debt, or a reduction in other government expenditures. Thus, these payments along with the 75 percent general fund revenue contributions to SMI will add greatly to pressures on Federal general fund revenues much sooner than is generally appreciated.

A somewhat dated but detailed article about how the Social Security trust funds are invested can be found here.

- - - - -

Social Security - Bill Summary & Status - 98th Congress (1983 - 1984) - HR1900

- - - - -

Social Security - In Depth Research, Legislative History - Amendments of April 20, 1983 (HR 1900; PL 98-21)

- - - - -

Social Security - Trust Fund FAQs

- - - - -

Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs - Trustees Report Summary - Actuarial Publication 2011

- - - - -

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   16:26:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#111. To: nolu chan (#109)

Unlike the Federal government program. They can just up and change the law and you cannot sue them to change it back again

You talk as if the govt is not of the people, by the people, for the people and a third party.

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-13   16:29:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#112. To: nolu chan (#110)

essentially, the government can "invest" Social Security funds by lending them to itself, then spending that money on programs not related to Social Security

Exactly right. The "assets" in the "trust fund" are in fact government debt. There is $2.6 trillion dollars worth of debt in the Social Security "trust fund".

critics of the program contend Social Security will eventually fall into deficit by 2018

This must be an old article, because the Social Security system fell into deficit this year. The deficits will increase dramatically as the baby boomers continue to retire.

According to MSNBC, over the next 75 years, the government is projected to spend $211 trillion more than it takes in (in today's dollars). Most of those deficits are due to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

The economy is only $14 trillion a year. To pay for projected deficits over the next 75 years, the government would have to completely confiscate 15 years of GDP. This is on top of current taxes.

We are headed for the biggest financial catastrophe the world has ever seen.

It's absolutely maddening that the economic illiterates just don't get it.


Oh, God, can you ever imagine what would happen to the country if Lyndon Johnson were president? -- Jackie Kennedy

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-13   16:38:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#113. To: jwpegler (#112)

We are headed for the biggest financial catastrophe the world has ever seen.

That assumes that projections over 75 years are accurate, and that the economy never gets larger than $14 trillion - not likely.

"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly

lucysmom  posted on  2011-09-13   16:51:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#114. To: jwpegler (#112)

We are headed for the biggest financial catastrophe the world has ever seen.

It's absolutely maddening that the economic illiterates just don't get it.

Yes we are, and yes it is.

And its going to happen a lot sooner than most think.

Proxy IP's are amusing.....lmao

Badeye  posted on  2011-09-13   16:57:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#115. To: nolu chan (#85)

I do not see the relationship between this and a Ponzi scheme.

The point is that insurance companies, like in a Ponzi Scheme,depend on continued investments from investors to pay out current benefits. If the insurance company fails, the controlling guarantee corporation is no longer required to pay out all the benefits.

NewsJunky  posted on  2011-09-13   18:26:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#116. To: NewsJunky (#115) (Edited)

Insurance companies do not promise to out pay multiple times the money every single person puts into the system.

Only Ponzi schemes like Social Security promise that. They can't deliver, so the people who get it late get screwed.


Oh, God, can you ever imagine what would happen to the country if Lyndon Johnson were president? -- Jackie Kennedy

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-13   18:40:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#117. To: Godwinson (#111)

You talk as if the govt is not of the people, by the people, for the people and a third party.

I talk as if the sovereign enjoys sovereign immunity and can only be sued with permission. If Congress passes a law, and the President signs it, and it is constitutional (however bad it may be), what do you think you can ask a court to do for you?

If Congress passed a law repealing Social Security in its entirety, all benefits null and void, and the President signed it into law, who would you sue, and for what?

The people can vote out the politicians and/or amend the Constitution. That takes a while.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   19:07:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#118. To: nolu chan (#109)

You only document that they CANNOT LAWFULLY do as you claim. The contract can be enforced.

:). Dude you're good.

A K A Stone  posted on  2011-09-13   19:11:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#119. To: NewsJunky (#115)

The point is that insurance companies, like in a Ponzi Scheme,depend on continued investments from investors to pay out current benefits.

They do not depend on an ever-growing base of customers to pay benefits to earlier customers. An insurance company does not go bust due to failure of an impossible rate of increase in customers, but it may go bankrupt.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   19:12:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#120. To: jwpegler (#112)

Exactly right. The "assets" in the "trust fund" are in fact government debt. There is $2.6 trillion dollars worth of debt in the Social Security "trust fund".

As one may observe from the information quoted below, Social Security actually gets funded month to month. The Treasury Department estimates what is needed and transfers that amount each month to the Social Security Trust Fund. It is a transfer from the general fund. I captured the stuff from the SSA today.

Had the debt ceiling not been raised recently, the general fund would have gone into default. The transfer to the Trust Fund would not have occurred. Social Security would have had no funding with which to issue checks or direct deposits.

Social Security Administration, In-Depth Research, Legislative History

Social Security Amendments of 1983, H.R. 1900/P.L. 98-21, (Enacted April 20, 1983)

At pages 11-12 of the scribd PDF.

MECHANISMS TO ASSURE CONTINUED BENEFIT PAYMENTS-- "FAILSAFE"

Normalization of Social Security Tax Income

Establishes accounting procedures for crediting the OASDI trust funds and the HI trust fund at the beginning of each month with estimated revenues for the entire month. Treasury will be required to estimate the amount of tax revenue to be collected each month and transfer such sums to the trust funds at the beginning of the month. The trust funds will pay interest, at rates equivalent to those earned on trust fund investments, on amounts so credited to the extent that they are credited prior to Treasury's actual receipt of taxes. Under prior law, Social Security taxes were transferred to the trust funds on an estimated as-received basis throughout the month. The provision is a change primarily in accounting procedures and, under alternative II-B assumptions developed for the 1983 Trustees Report, is unlikely to have a cost effect on the trust funds. Under these assumptions, the amounts transferred under normalization in all likelihood will not be needed to pay benefits and amounts transferred to the trust funds in advance of tax receipts will be invested in Government obligations at the same interest rate that the trust funds must pay Treasury. Therefore, the interest earned on the advances will offset the interest payments to Treasury.

The Social Security FAQ presents it with a bit of spin.

Why do some people describe the "special issue" securities held by the trust funds as worthless IOUs? What is SSA's reaction to this criticism?

As stated above, money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U. S. Government securities. Because the government spends this borrowed cash, some people see the trust fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government will be unable to make good on in the future. Without legislation to restore long-range solvency of the trust funds, redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be necessary.

Far from being "worthless IOUs," the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government. The government has always repaid Social Security, with interest. The special-issue securities are, therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial instruments of the Federal government.

Many options are being considered to restore long-range trust fund solvency. These options are being considered now, over 20 years in advance of the year the funds are likely to be exhausted. It is thus likely that legislation will be enacted to restore long-term solvency, making it unlikely that the trust funds' securities will need to be redeemed on a large scale prior to maturity.

If the debt ceiling had not been raised recently, the general fund would have defaulted. With Treasury incapable of performing the normal funds transfer, Social Security would have been unable to issue checks.

When Social Security ran a surplus, that surplus was used to fund the general government. As it now runs a deficit, new tax revenues must be used to fund the Social Security Trust Fund. The payments from the general fund to cover the Social Security monthly revenue shortfall add to the Federal debt. With the existence of a debt ceiling, a collision with that ceiling renders the Social Security program vulnerable to a default of the general fund.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   19:21:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#121. To: jwpegler (#112) (Edited)

This must be an old article, because the Social Security system fell into deficit this year. The deficits will increase dramatically as the baby boomers continue to retire.

From the Summary of the 2011 Annual Reports of the Boards of Trustees:

At page 1:

Social Security

Social Security expenditures exceeded the program’s non-interest income in 2010 for the first time since 1983. The $49 billion deficit last year (excluding interest income) and $46 billion projected deficit in 2011 are in large part due to the weakened economy and to downward income adjustments that correct for excess payroll tax revenue credited to the trust funds in earlier years. This deficit is expected to shrink to about $20 billion for years 2012-2014 as the economy strengthens. After 2014, cash deficits are expected to grow rapidly as the number of beneficiaries continues to grow at a substantially faster rate than the number of covered workers. Through 2022, the annual cash deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets from the General Fund of the Treasury. Because these redemptions will be less than interest earnings, trust fund balances will continue to grow. After 2022, trust fund assets will be redeemed in amounts that exceed interest earnings until trust fund reserves are exhausted in 2036, one year earlier than was projected last year. Thereafter, tax income would be sufficient to pay only about three-quarters of scheduled benefits through 2085.

That had to be written by Rosie Scenario. The economy is not exactly strengthening as we approach 2012.

At page 3

Conclusion

Projected long-run program costs for both Medicare and Social Security are not sustainable under currently scheduled financing, and will require legislative corrections if disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers are to be avoided.

The financial challenges facing Social Security and Medicare should be addressed soon. If action is taken sooner rather than later, more options and more time will be available to phase in changes so that those affected can adequately prepare.

Signed:
Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury and Manageing Trustee
Hilda L. Solis, Secretary of Labor and Trustee
Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services and Trustee
Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security, and Trustee
Charles P. Blahous III, Trustee
Robert D. Reischauer, Trustee

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   19:40:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#122. To: nolu chan (#100) (Edited)

What ever it takes.

The USSA eliminates SS/Medicare

and continues the Unfunded Wars

we're at 1932/33...with no New Deal and WWIII.

Master and Serf.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-13   20:54:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#123. To: nolu chan (#119) (Edited)

They do not depend on an ever-growing base of customers to pay benefits to earlier customers.

Social Security doesn't depend on ever growing base of customers either. In fact it has had a shrinking base of customer but yet it still has survived. And all that is needed is to tweak revenues and benefit to continue. Its no more like a Ponzi Scheme than an insurance company.

NewsJunky  posted on  2011-09-13   21:20:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#124. To: jwpegler (#116)

Only Ponzi schemes like Social Security promise that. They can't deliver, so the people who get it late get screwed

Which Ponzi Scheme has lasted for almost seven decades?

NewsJunky  posted on  2011-09-13   21:22:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#125. To: nolu chan (#117)

If Congress passed a law repealing Social Security in its entirety, all benefits null and void,

The people will never let that happen unless we actually bankrupted and then they would have no choice. The people will decide in the end what we do with Social Security and Medicare. Congress cannot and will not do it independently.

NewsJunky  posted on  2011-09-13   21:45:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#126. To: nolu chan (#117)

The people can vote out the politicians and/or amend the Constitution. That takes a while.

Yea, because the American court system is a quick system, right?

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-13   21:51:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#127. To: Godwinson (#126)

the American court system is a quick system, right?

As compared to amending the Constitution?

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   23:40:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#128. To: NewsJunky (#123)

Social Security doesn't depend on ever growing base of customers either. In fact it has had a shrinking base of customer but yet it still has survived.

You can't be serious.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   23:41:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#129. To: NewsJunky (#125)

The people will never let that happen unless we actually bankrupted and then they would have no choice. The people will decide in the end what we do with Social Security and Medicare. Congress cannot and will not do it independently.

Just what have the people done, or what will they do? Hold their breath unti they turn blue?

Congress, with the President, can pass laws against the will of the people. They did not have support for NAFTA. They did not have support for the bailout of Wall Street. They do not need the people's permission to pass a law.

They can create something like a joint committee and then just point fingers at each other regarding the result.

We reelect them in great numbers. Incumbents have great approval at the ballot box.

http://www.thirty-thousand.org/documents/QHA-07.pdf

Historical Prevalence of Reelected Representatives in the U. S. House, by Congress and by State.

For the above numbers, factor in that not all representatives run for reelection. For example, in the 106th Congress 403 sought reelection and 394 won reelection. In the 107th Congress, 399 sought reelection and 382 won reelection.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-14   0:50:35 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#130. To: nolu chan, NewsJunky (#128)

Social Security doesn't depend on ever growing base of customers either. In fact it has had a shrinking base of customer but yet it still has survived.

Just some tweaking can get SS to survive past our lifetimes and America's population is not shrinking. The only ones trying to end SS are the fucking minority kook party, a party that is composed of people who believe Jesus rode dinosaurs, Obama is a Soviet KGB plant to weaken America and believe little girls should not be immunized from HPV because they think the fear of getting cervical cancer from HPV is the only thing keeping them virginal till they marry.

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-14   1:43:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#131. To: Godwinson (#130)

Just some tweaking can get SS to survive past our lifetimes

So you want to pay out less? Or raise taxes? Don't you care about the deficit?

A K A Stone  posted on  2011-09-14   6:57:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#132. To: A K A Stone, NewsJunky (#131)

So you want to pay out less? Or raise taxes? Don't you care about the deficit?

I would tax multi-millionaires at 90% like the Republicans did under Ike.

With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-09-14   9:55:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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