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Title: Rick Perry is Right: Social Security Really is a Ponzi Scheme
Source: Dissenting Opinions
URL Source: http://jwpegler.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... -is-right-social-security.html
Published: Sep 10, 2011
Author: Eric Blankenburg
Post Date: 2011-09-10 21:05:00 by jwpegler
Keywords: None
Views: 116667
Comments: 228

Rick Perry's comments during this week's GOP debate at the Reagan library has caused quite a stir in the liberal media.

During the debate, Governor Perry defended the words in his book, calling Social Security a "Ponzi scheme".

After the debate, the "analysis" on MSNBC was truly fun to watch as every commentator sat shelled shocked over the fact that a politician would dare to use these words to describe America's most sacred welfare program.

The only person on the panel who had a clue about what might be going on was Ed Schultz who at one point questioned whether or not whether young people would stick with Obama or jump on the Perry bandwagon.

Unlike the political and media establishment in this country, young people understand that they are going to get the short end of the Social Security "inter-generational compact". Schultz surprisingly realized that Perry's message might resonant with young people.

Let's take a quick look at the Social Security system and see if Perry might be on to something.

The people who got into the Social Security system very early got back on average 15 times the amount of money they paid in. They got a great deal and were raving proponents of the system.

The people receiving Social Security benefits today are getting back on average 2 1/2 to 3 times what they paid in. They are also generally strong proponents of the system.

Today, Social Security is paying out more every year than it takes it. We are borrowing money from the foreigners, like the Chinese and Saudis to pay current benefits. As the huge Baby Boom generation retires, the amount of debt we incur each year will quickly escalate until it blows up in our face and old people without resources really do wind up in the street.

So, what happens when my generation starts to retire in 15 to 20 years and what will happen to my kids?

We will all be left holding the bag.

There is a financial MODEL that describes this. The model is called a Pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme or a Bernie Madoff scheme. The people who get it in early make out like bandits and the people who get it late get screwed.

That is exactly how the Social Security system will play out.

The fact is that the Social Security is a pay-as-you­-go welfare system that transfers money from young, struggling families to relatively well-to-do retired people. There isn't any "trust fund". The words "trust fund" are used to describe a mountain of debt. A mountain of debt is NOT a trust fund. It's a mountain of debt. Today, the mountain of debt in the Social Security system is so great that it cannot be paid.

Peel away the emotion, the Orwellian language about the "trust fund", and the other political rhetoric, and just look at the financial facts. Then this all becomes very clear.

Rick Perry is absolutely right and I am actually impressed that a politician would tell the truth about this. It's truly amazing.

The big question is what can be done?

Long term, people need to be able to save for their own retirements. Social Security needs to be taken back to it's roots as a program that supplements the income of retirees who are truly poor, through no fault of their own.

Today, 25% of people over 65 have pension or investment income that places them in the "wealthy" category. They still get Social Security benefits, so long as they don't work for their income. Why should young struggling families hand money over the wealthy retired people?

They shouldn't. Means testing Social Security will go a long way to make it solvent for the future.

When Social Security was implemente­d, the retirement age was 65. The average life expectancy was 59 for men and 61 for women. Most people didn't live long enough to get a check. Today, the retirement age is still 65. However, life expectancy is 73 for men and 78 for women.

The math just doesn't work.

We need to gradually raise the retirement age to keep up with life expectancy.

Bravo to Perry for telling it like it is. I certainly agree with Ed Schultz that a lot of young people will find this message appealing.

The other group who should find this message appealing are wealthy retirees who are stealing from their children's and grandchildren's future. Will they finally put their selfishness aside and say: "no more"? Probably not, but we'll see.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 112.

#11. To: jwpegler (#0)

SS is the only place left that has cash.

And Obama wants it.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-11   9:15:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: mcgowanjm (#11)

SS is the only place left that has cash.

Huh???

Social security is paying out more every year in benefits than it receives in taxes.

There isn't any cash on hand.

None.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-11   12:54:22 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#44. To: jwpegler (#15)

There isn't any cash on hand.

None.

Only because the US Gov't has been systematically robbing the SS Fund since Nixon....

And leaving IOU's.

It's the Unfunded Wars....How many are we waging now?....

8D

mcgowanjm  posted on  2011-09-12   8:53:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#47. To: mcgowanjm (#44)

Only because the US Gov't has been systematically robbing the SS Fund since Nixon....

And leaving IOU's.

They only borrowed $2.6 trillion from Social Security. Over the next 75 years, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicare will run deficits of $211 trillion.

The system no longer works. It need major surgery or it is going to collapse.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-12   10:27:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#73. To: jwpegler (#47)

They only borrowed $2.6 trillion from Social Security.

I should have mentioned that this is the Federal government "borrowing" from the Federal government. It's like you borrowing from yourself, spending the money, looking at an IOU from you to you, and thinking you still have the money. It makes no financial sense.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-12   19:14:57 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#91. To: nolu chan (#73)

I should have mentioned that this is the Federal government "borrowing" from the Federal government. It's like you borrowing from yourself, spending the money, looking at an IOU from you to you, and thinking you still have the money.

It's more like lending money to a close relative at interest. You may belong to the same family, but you are not the same entity.

lucysmom  posted on  2011-09-13   10:19:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#110. To: lucysmom, jwpegler, mcgowanjm, all (#91)

http://www.snopes.com/politics/socialsecurity/changes.asp

The Social Security Trust Fund was established in 1939 to receive monies collected for Social Security through payroll taxes. The monies in this fund are managed by the Department of the Treasury; they are not, nor have they ever been, put into the "general operating fund."

However, whether the Social Security Trust Fund can truly be said to be "independent" is problematic. The Social Security Act specifies that the monies in the fund may only "be invested in securities backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal government," such as treasury bills, treasury notes, and treasury bonds, as well as special issue bonds. So, essentially, the government can "invest" Social Security funds by lending them to itself, then spending that money on programs not related to Social Security (e.g., defense, foreign aid, education). The government "pays back" this money when the Social Security program redeems the bonds, but critics of the program contend Social Security will eventually fall into deficit by 2018, and the Treasury won't have the necessary cash on hand to redeem the bonds and pay back the fund. As the Social Security and Medicare Trustees themselves noted in their 2005 Annual Report:

In 2005 the Social Security tax income surplus is estimated to be more than offset by the shortfall in tax and premium income for Medicare, resulting in a small overall cash shortfall that must be covered by transfers from general fund revenues. The combined shortfall is projected to grow each year such that by 2017 net revenue flows from the general fund to the trust funds will total $515 billion, or 2.3 percent of GDP. Since neither the interest paid on the Treasury bonds held in the HI [Hospital Insurance] and OASDI Trust Funds, nor their redemption, provides any net new income to the Treasury, the full amount of the required Treasury payments to these trust funds must be financed by some combination of increased taxation, increased Federal borrowing and debt, or a reduction in other government expenditures. Thus, these payments along with the 75 percent general fund revenue contributions to SMI will add greatly to pressures on Federal general fund revenues much sooner than is generally appreciated.

A somewhat dated but detailed article about how the Social Security trust funds are invested can be found here.

- - - - -

Social Security - Bill Summary & Status - 98th Congress (1983 - 1984) - HR1900

- - - - -

Social Security - In Depth Research, Legislative History - Amendments of April 20, 1983 (HR 1900; PL 98-21)

- - - - -

Social Security - Trust Fund FAQs

- - - - -

Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs - Trustees Report Summary - Actuarial Publication 2011

- - - - -

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13   16:26:05 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#112. To: nolu chan (#110)

essentially, the government can "invest" Social Security funds by lending them to itself, then spending that money on programs not related to Social Security

Exactly right. The "assets" in the "trust fund" are in fact government debt. There is $2.6 trillion dollars worth of debt in the Social Security "trust fund".

critics of the program contend Social Security will eventually fall into deficit by 2018

This must be an old article, because the Social Security system fell into deficit this year. The deficits will increase dramatically as the baby boomers continue to retire.

According to MSNBC, over the next 75 years, the government is projected to spend $211 trillion more than it takes in (in today's dollars). Most of those deficits are due to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

The economy is only $14 trillion a year. To pay for projected deficits over the next 75 years, the government would have to completely confiscate 15 years of GDP. This is on top of current taxes.

We are headed for the biggest financial catastrophe the world has ever seen.

It's absolutely maddening that the economic illiterates just don't get it.

jwpegler  posted on  2011-09-13   16:38:52 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 112.

#113. To: jwpegler (#112)

We are headed for the biggest financial catastrophe the world has ever seen.

That assumes that projections over 75 years are accurate, and that the economy never gets larger than $14 trillion - not likely.

lucysmom  posted on  2011-09-13 16:51:33 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#114. To: jwpegler (#112)

We are headed for the biggest financial catastrophe the world has ever seen.

It's absolutely maddening that the economic illiterates just don't get it.

Yes we are, and yes it is.

And its going to happen a lot sooner than most think.

Badeye  posted on  2011-09-13 16:57:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#120. To: jwpegler (#112)

Exactly right. The "assets" in the "trust fund" are in fact government debt. There is $2.6 trillion dollars worth of debt in the Social Security "trust fund".

As one may observe from the information quoted below, Social Security actually gets funded month to month. The Treasury Department estimates what is needed and transfers that amount each month to the Social Security Trust Fund. It is a transfer from the general fund. I captured the stuff from the SSA today.

Had the debt ceiling not been raised recently, the general fund would have gone into default. The transfer to the Trust Fund would not have occurred. Social Security would have had no funding with which to issue checks or direct deposits.

Social Security Administration, In-Depth Research, Legislative History

Social Security Amendments of 1983, H.R. 1900/P.L. 98-21, (Enacted April 20, 1983)

At pages 11-12 of the scribd PDF.

MECHANISMS TO ASSURE CONTINUED BENEFIT PAYMENTS-- "FAILSAFE"

Normalization of Social Security Tax Income

Establishes accounting procedures for crediting the OASDI trust funds and the HI trust fund at the beginning of each month with estimated revenues for the entire month. Treasury will be required to estimate the amount of tax revenue to be collected each month and transfer such sums to the trust funds at the beginning of the month. The trust funds will pay interest, at rates equivalent to those earned on trust fund investments, on amounts so credited to the extent that they are credited prior to Treasury's actual receipt of taxes. Under prior law, Social Security taxes were transferred to the trust funds on an estimated as-received basis throughout the month. The provision is a change primarily in accounting procedures and, under alternative II-B assumptions developed for the 1983 Trustees Report, is unlikely to have a cost effect on the trust funds. Under these assumptions, the amounts transferred under normalization in all likelihood will not be needed to pay benefits and amounts transferred to the trust funds in advance of tax receipts will be invested in Government obligations at the same interest rate that the trust funds must pay Treasury. Therefore, the interest earned on the advances will offset the interest payments to Treasury.

The Social Security FAQ presents it with a bit of spin.

Why do some people describe the "special issue" securities held by the trust funds as worthless IOUs? What is SSA's reaction to this criticism?

As stated above, money flowing into the trust funds is invested in U. S. Government securities. Because the government spends this borrowed cash, some people see the trust fund assets as an accumulation of securities that the government will be unable to make good on in the future. Without legislation to restore long-range solvency of the trust funds, redemption of long-term securities prior to maturity would be necessary.

Far from being "worthless IOUs," the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government. The government has always repaid Social Security, with interest. The special-issue securities are, therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial instruments of the Federal government.

Many options are being considered to restore long-range trust fund solvency. These options are being considered now, over 20 years in advance of the year the funds are likely to be exhausted. It is thus likely that legislation will be enacted to restore long-term solvency, making it unlikely that the trust funds' securities will need to be redeemed on a large scale prior to maturity.

If the debt ceiling had not been raised recently, the general fund would have defaulted. With Treasury incapable of performing the normal funds transfer, Social Security would have been unable to issue checks.

When Social Security ran a surplus, that surplus was used to fund the general government. As it now runs a deficit, new tax revenues must be used to fund the Social Security Trust Fund. The payments from the general fund to cover the Social Security monthly revenue shortfall add to the Federal debt. With the existence of a debt ceiling, a collision with that ceiling renders the Social Security program vulnerable to a default of the general fund.

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13 19:21:00 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#121. To: jwpegler (#112) (Edited)

This must be an old article, because the Social Security system fell into deficit this year. The deficits will increase dramatically as the baby boomers continue to retire.

From the Summary of the 2011 Annual Reports of the Boards of Trustees:

At page 1:

Social Security

Social Security expenditures exceeded the program’s non-interest income in 2010 for the first time since 1983. The $49 billion deficit last year (excluding interest income) and $46 billion projected deficit in 2011 are in large part due to the weakened economy and to downward income adjustments that correct for excess payroll tax revenue credited to the trust funds in earlier years. This deficit is expected to shrink to about $20 billion for years 2012-2014 as the economy strengthens. After 2014, cash deficits are expected to grow rapidly as the number of beneficiaries continues to grow at a substantially faster rate than the number of covered workers. Through 2022, the annual cash deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets from the General Fund of the Treasury. Because these redemptions will be less than interest earnings, trust fund balances will continue to grow. After 2022, trust fund assets will be redeemed in amounts that exceed interest earnings until trust fund reserves are exhausted in 2036, one year earlier than was projected last year. Thereafter, tax income would be sufficient to pay only about three-quarters of scheduled benefits through 2085.

That had to be written by Rosie Scenario. The economy is not exactly strengthening as we approach 2012.

At page 3

Conclusion

Projected long-run program costs for both Medicare and Social Security are not sustainable under currently scheduled financing, and will require legislative corrections if disruptive consequences for beneficiaries and taxpayers are to be avoided.

The financial challenges facing Social Security and Medicare should be addressed soon. If action is taken sooner rather than later, more options and more time will be available to phase in changes so that those affected can adequately prepare.

Signed:
Timothy F. Geithner, Secretary of the Treasury and Manageing Trustee
Hilda L. Solis, Secretary of Labor and Trustee
Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services and Trustee
Michael J. Astrue, Commissioner of Social Security, and Trustee
Charles P. Blahous III, Trustee
Robert D. Reischauer, Trustee

nolu chan  posted on  2011-09-13 19:40:17 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 112.

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