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Title: Global Cooling Forecast
Source:
ICR.org
URL Source: http://www.icr.org/article/6257/
Published: Sep 10, 2011
Author: Larry Vardiman
Post Date: 2011-09-10 18:58:57 by CZ82
Keywords: None
Views: 4623
Comments: 6
Global Cooling Forecast by Larry Vardiman, Ph.D. * Introduction It was announced at the recent annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society (AAS/SPD) at New Mexico State University that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or will not occur at all. Magnetic fields erupting from the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will form. The current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, started out late and slow and will likely produce a very weak solar maximum in 2013. This report from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory at Kitt Peak in Arizona indicates that the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down for a while, causing global cooling. Migration of Internal Current Flows Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, was the lead author on one of three papers presented at the conference on sunspot cycles.1 Using data from six observing stations in the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), his team translated pulsations caused by sound waves reverberating in the sun using models of its internal structure. They found that east-west zonal currents inside the sun, called the torsional oscillation, migrate toward the equator and match new sunspot formations for each cycle. They successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle. Hill said in an AAS/SPD press release: We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we saw no sign of it. This indicates that its start may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all. Weak Sunspots In a second paper, William Livingston, Matt Penn, and L. Svalgard saw a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predicted that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Sunspots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots, this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (earth’s magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface). The field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot. Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected from the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak, Livingston et al observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that sunspot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500-gauss threshold and sunspots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convection forces on the solar surface. Poleward March of Coronal Magnetic Activity In a third paper, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force’s coronal research program, observed a slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the sun’s corona. Altrock used four decades of observations from NSO’s 40-centimeter (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at the Sunspot, New Mexico, facilities. Altrock explained: A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun. Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.2 Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees Celsius (3.6 million Fahrenheit). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnesium rising from the sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward. Altrock said: In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees. Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the pole, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case. Conclusions and Implications All three of these lines of research point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while. Dr. Hill said of the results: This is highly unusual and unexpected. But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation. He concluded: If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, the 70-year period with virtually no sunspots that occurred about 350 years ago. Edward L. Maunder reported that a period of few or no sunspots occurred in conjunction with the Little Ice Age in the period from 1645 to 1715, the coldest period of average global temperature during the last 1,000 years. Figure 1 shows the 400-year record of the monthly number of sunspots since 1600. Although Hill emphatically denied that his team from NSO is predicting a new ice age, it is clear from his research and studies by others that subtle changes in the sun can produce measurable changes in the climate of earth. Even if recent trends in sunspot number don’t result in another extended period of low solar activity, complex solar processes now coming to light are probably important in understanding global warming and minor ice ages. This author believes the massive Ice Age that affected the earth several thousand years ago was caused by the Genesis Flood. References 1.Hill, F. et al. Large-scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum—Where Is Cycle 25? Presentation 16.10. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, June 13-16, 2011. 2.What’s Down with the Sun? Major Drop in Solar Activity Predicted. American Astronomical Society’s Solar Physics Division press release, June 14, 2011. 3.Livingston, W., M. Penn and L. Svalgard. A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor. Presentation 17.21. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, June 13-16, 2011. 4.Altrock, R. C. Whither Goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona. Presentation 18.04. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, June 13-16, 2011. 5.Vardiman, L. 2008. A New Theory of Climate Change. Acts & Facts. 37 (11): 10. 6.Robert A. Rohde, www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image: Sunspot_Numbers_png. 7.Vardiman, L. 1994. Out of Whose Womb Came the Ice? Acts & Facts. 23 (8). * Dr. Vardiman is Senior Research Scientist, Astro/Geophysics at the Institute for Creation Research. Cite this article: Vardiman, L. 2011. Global Cooling Forecast. Acts & Facts. 40 (9): 10-11.
Poster Comment: So if this is true and the temperatures do drop, boy the Manmade Global Warming crowd are gonna be pissed!!!!!
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#1. To: All (#0)
OOppss forgot this.... When asked by a Liberal what I bought my Granddaughter for her 1st birthday I replied, "MORE AMMUNITION"!!!! -----------------------------"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."
Seriously, why are you wasting anyone's time with this?
Tagline for sale - inquire within
Because the Enite gop demands that Global Warming does not exist. They don;t even believe that the Holocene exists. And so they will go more insane by the day.
Nobody is holding your face to the monitor and making you read it!!!!! You think "MANMADE" global warming is gonna wipe us all out, I don't. I'm not saying I don't believe in MGW.... BUT, it hasn't been "PROVEN" as to "HOW MUCH MAN" is actually effecting our climate, and how much is just good old Mother Nature and her PMS moods..... SO... because of that "FACT", I'm reserving my judgement until all the "FACTS" come in.... That's if there are any "FACTS" to be had in the first place, and... if there are any, I probably won't see them before I die....... So, I don't plan on jumping off the deep end anytime soon like a whole bunch of others (Leftards) already have.... Hell, crocodiles used to live a good about 1500 miles farther north than they do now, and people used to be able to farm Greenland...... And we are "SUPPOSEDLY" experiencing MGW... yea right............ And "IF" we are starting to see the effects of MGW, what do they plan on doing to stop it that isn't going to kill a bunch of people???? They can't answer that question and neither can you, no clue!!!!! As far as I'm concernered right now it's all about "CONTROLLING" the "Sheeple"!!!! So if you want to try and discredit someone for what they believe then why don't you go find someone who you can prove "WRONG" to start with!!!!!
When asked by a Liberal what I bought my Granddaughter for her 1st birthday I replied, "MORE AMMUNITION"!!!! -----------------------------"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."
* Dr. Vardiman is Senior Research Scientist, Astro/Geophysics at the Institute for Creation Research. Seriously, why are you wasting anyone's time with this? CZ this moron thinks he knows something. He doesn't even know how we got the fossil record. He is still repeating the script of the progressives who hate God. If only he would take his blinders off maybe he could learn something and stop looking like a fool.
If only he would take his blinders off maybe he could learn something and stop looking like a fool. Everybody has their opinion on MGW just like they have on opinion on whether we were created by God, or we descended from apes..... That argument has been going on for ever, and by the way which side is correct???? Another good one is "Does God really Exist"????? Everybody believes what they want to believe, some are easily persuaded and some aren't.... Some can think for themselves and some can't... and this country seems to be taken over by those who can't think for themselves..... So if he believes in MGW then that's fine with me, just as long as he uses "HIS OWN MONEY" to "FIX" the problem instead of yours and mine!!!!!
When asked by a Liberal what I bought my Granddaughter for her 1st birthday I replied, "MORE AMMUNITION"!!!! -----------------------------"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."
#2. To: CZ82 (#0)
This author believes the massive Ice Age that affected the earth several thousand years ago was caused by the Genesis Flood.
* Dr. Vardiman is Senior Research Scientist, Astro/Geophysics at the Institute for Creation Research.
#3. To: go65 (#2)
#4. To: go65 (#2)
Seriously, why are you wasting anyone's time with this?
#5. To: go65 (#2)
This author believes the massive Ice Age that affected the earth several thousand years ago was caused by the Genesis Flood.
#6. To: A K A Stone (#5)
CZ this moron thinks he knows something. He doesn't even know how we got the fossil record. He is still repeating the script of the progressives who hate God.
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