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Title: A Pyric Victory (Texas heat/drought)
Source:
CHRON
URL Source: http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011/09/a-pyric-victory/
Published: Sep 8, 2011
Author: John Nielson-Gammon
Post Date: 2011-09-08 09:37:59 by go65
Keywords: None
Views: 1502
Comments: 3
The preliminary numbers from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are in: the Texas average temperature in August was 88.1 F, 2.4 F above the previous warmest August (1952). This also breaks the all-time record for hottest month in Texas history. The records go back to 1895, but the previous record, 87.1 F, was set just last month. Whatever the contribution from urban warming and poor station siting, it’s quite small compared to the temperature extremes we’ve been seeing this year. Combined, the three months June-August averaged 86.8 F. This sets the all-time record for hottest summer in the lower 48 states. Oklahoma was running neck and neck, but came in at 86.5 F. Both shattered the previous record, 85.2 F, set by Oklahoma in 1934. Oklahoma can be consoled by the fact that it still owns the record for hottest individual month, 88.9 F in July 2011. I call it a Pyric (rather than Pyrrhic) victory because the drought and heat have turned the Lost Pines of Bastrop into their own funeral pyre, the Bastrop fire being the largest of several fires that continue to burn out of control. The drought has produced the necessary fuel conditions, and the combination of T.S. Lee and the first strong cold front of the season provided the strong winds and low humidity needed for rapidly-spreading wildfires. The most commonly-used drought index, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, is now at -7.75 according to NCDC. This is the second-lowest monthly value in Texas history, exceeded only by the -7.80 calculated for September 1956. This index is most sensitive to drought on a 6-12 month time scale; water supply impacts were generally worse in 1956 because that drought began in 1950. The present drought is the most severe one-year drought on record for Texas. Besides possibly setting the PDSI record, the next record to fall is likely to be the record for lowest 12-month precipitation. According to our FNEP numbers, based on NCDC-archived data, the record is 13.6983;, set in September 1956. Our eleven-month total is 10.0683;, which, by the way, is 2.3483; below the previous lowest eleven-month total. Other records: driest June-August (2.4483;; previous record 3.4383; in 1956; long-term average 7.7183;); driest January-August (7.4783;; previous record 10.5683; in 1956; long-term average 18.3183;). We’d need over three and a half inches in September to avoid setting the 12-month record. The average September amount is a bit less than three inches. Texas has only received a tenth or two so far this month, and the latest NWS global model run gives Texas another tenth of an inch in the next seven days and maybe a half an inch in the seven days following. As folks can readily tell from the current fire impacts, this is pretty grim. [Update: NCDC points out that I should emphasize that these are very preliminary numbers. They're subject to revision over the next couple of days, and will undergo further updates over the next three months or so. Our margin of victory, though, seems pretty solid.] John Nielsen-Gammon is the Texas State Climatologist and a Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University
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#1. To: go65 (#0)
To:Skippy, toe-jam, old man Fred Alzheimers Mertz, _jim, loonymom/ming, e-type-jackoff, goober56, Wrek, calcon, dummy DwarF, continental op, Biff, gobsheit and meguro From: Capitalist Eric Message: You're SOCIALIST morons. ESAD. If Nate keeps moving NW then they should get quite a bit of rain by early next week....
When asked by a Liberal what I bought my Granddaughter for her 1st birthday I replied, "MORE AMMUNITION"!!!! -----------------------------"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf."
yep, that would solve their short-term problems. Models are all over the place right now though.
Tagline for sale - inquire within
The preliminary numbers from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are in...
#2. To: go65 (#0)
We’d need over three and a half inches in September to avoid setting the 12-month record. The average September amount is a bit less than three inches. Texas has only received a tenth or two so far this month, and the latest NWS global model run gives Texas another tenth of an inch in the next seven days and maybe a half an inch in the seven days following. As folks can readily tell from the current fire impacts, this is pretty grim.
#3. To: CZ82 (#2)
If Nate keeps moving NW then they should get quite a bit of rain by early next week....
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