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Title: What's Going On With The U.S. Economy?
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URL Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30184.html
Published: Aug 30, 2011
Author: Mike_Whitney
Post Date: 2011-08-30 17:49:41 by Capitalist Eric
Keywords: None
Views: 6695
Comments: 21
There's a very good post over at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis today. ("US in recession right here, right now") Blogger Mike Shedlock makes the case that the economy may already be in recession. It's all matter of whether if one uses the the consumer price index (CPI) or the the BEA's measure of price inflation to make their calculations. There's a fair amount of technical jargon to wade through in the article, but the charts are pretty persuasive and--if nothing else--they reinforce most people's suspicions that the economy is getting worse by the day. It's too bad we don't have a financial media that's willing to explain what's going on in simple terms, but we don't. Instead, we're deluged with daily datapoints that have little meaning to the average working slob who just wants to know whether he's going to have a job tomorrow or if the company he works for is going to pack-it-in and head for Shandong Province. Monday's report on consumer spending is a perfect example of how the media distorts the news to create a cheery narrative of "economic recovery". Here's a clip from Bloomberg: "Consumer spending climbed more than forecast in July as Americans dipped into savings to buy cars and cool their homes, showing the biggest part of the economy is holding up. Purchases rose 0.8 percent, the biggest gain since February, after a 0.1 percent decline the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 0.5 percent increase. Incomes grew 0.3 percent, pushing the savings rate to a four-month low. Industry data showed autos sold at the fastest pace in three months as supply constraints from Japan’s March earthquake began to ease, while outlays on services, which includes utilities like electricity and gas, climbed at the fastest pace since December 2009." (Bloomberg) Hurrah! The slump is over! The indomitable US consumer has once again hoisted himself off the canvas and stumbled back to the shopping malls and car lots in a selfless effort to keep the global economy plugging along. Does anyone believe this gibberish? Now, let's take a more sober approach to the data and see if we can figure out what's really going on behind the hype. This is an excerpt from a post at Zero Hedge: "July personal income and expenditures were quite surprising in that while many were expecting the drop in the market to force consumer saving to upshift (lower spending than income), not only was this not true, but expenditures spiked by 1 whole percent from -0.2% to 0.8%, on expectations of 0.5%, even as Personal Income came in line with expectations of 0.3%, up from a revised 0.2% (concurrent with extensive prior data revisions). This was the biggest difference between a monthly change in income and spending since October 2009. The net result was a plunge in the savings rate from 5.5% to 5.0%. And while on the surface this would be good news, as in Americans are spending again, a quick look at the PCE components indicates that virtually the entire surge is due to a spike in Energy goods and services. In other words, the entire spike in spending was to... pay for gas and associated energy expenses..... All in all: in July Americans continued to max out their credit cards to pay for gas." ("Personal Saving Rate Plunges From 5.5% To 5.0% As July Energy Expenditures Soar", Zero Hedge) Okay, so which article is closer to the truth; Bloomberg or Zero Hedge? Of course, consumers spent more money than before, but it had nothing to do "feeling flush" or being more optimistic about the future. Hell, no. They were forced to use their credit cards at the gaspump so they could haul their sorry ass to work in the morning. That's hardly a reason to celebrate. So, what's really going on with the economy? Well, oddly enough, it's not that hard to explain, and it doesn't require a Masters in Economics to grasp the main points. To begin with, let's state the obvious: We're in a Depression. Yes, that's a "judgement call", but for 90 percent of working people in this country, the word accurately describes the slump we're in. Second, the political process is broken. Again, this fact is so obvious that it's hardly worth mentioning. The vast majority of people are thoroughly disgusted with the craven Wall Street duopoloy that masquerades as "representative government". "Representative" of who? Corporate fatcats and bank vermin? "American democracy" is a contradiction in terms; a complete farce. Neither party has any plan for lowering unemployment, correcting chronic trade imbalances, re-regulating the financial system, or growing the economy. Capital Hill is merely an annex of Wall Street, just as the White House is entirely in the clutches of the brandy-swilling swine who run the big brokerage houses and hedge funds. They own it all, every bit of it. America is just one of many properties in their sordid portfolio. Okay, enough ranting. Now onto the facts. US households are still underwater 3 full years after Lehman Brothers croaked. They've shed a good portion of their debts through default, foreclosure, personal bankruptcy and accelerated repayments, but the situation is still grave. There's lots more red ink to mop up and now that Obama's $787 billion fiscal stimulus has run out, it's going to be lot harder for them to clear their balance sheets. Why is that? Because government spending reduces the real value of debt making deleveraging easier. But--as you may have noticed--the government's share of total spending is actually shrinking. State and local governments are cutting costs and laying off workers as fast as they can--over 500, 000 state workers were fired in the last year and a half alone. It's a disaster. And the idiot Obama hasn't lifted a finger to reverse the trend. Instead, he's taken a sabbatical to Martha's Vineyard to see if he can shave a few strokes off his golf game. What a terrible president. Anyway, household debt as a share of annual disposable income is currently 115 percent, down from 135 percent in 2008. Economists believe that the figure will eventually return to its historic range of 75 percent. And, there's the rub, because if consumers continue to slash spending and increase saving--as they need to do-- then the economy will slow down even more greasing the skids for another vicious downturn. Consider this: In the peak bubble years of 2003 to 2008 US households withdrew roughly $2.3 trillion from the home equity to spend as they pleased. Ironically, only about 20 percent of that sum was used in home improvements. The rest was used to pay off medical bills, credit card debt and, yes, discretionary spending. (Don't workers deserve an occasional "night on the town"?) In other words, the housing bubble provided $500 billion in extra consumption per year for 5 years, and it was all borrowed money! (Keep in mind Obama's stimulus was $800 billion, but that amount was spent over a 2-year period. So the $500 per year siphoned from home equity actually exceeded that of the ARRA.) Now that housing prices are dropping, the home equity ATM has been shut down leaving households mired in debts that will take years to pay off. That means consumption--which traditionally leads the way out of recession--will flag, demand will remain weak, business investment will dwindle, unemployment will stay high, and the economy will continue to drift sideways. So, what does tell us about the "recovery"? The recovery was just another public relations fable with no basis in fact. Just look at the trajectory of GDP in the last couple years and you'll see what I mean: (4Q 2009-3.8%; 1Q 2010--3.9%; 2Q 2010--3.8%; 3Q 2010--2.5%; 4Q 2010--2.3%; 1Q 2011--0.4%, "revised" 2Q 2011---0.9%) See the difference between the strong growth in 2009 to 2010, and the weak growth thereafter? The numbers coincide perfectly with the injections of stimulus. In other words, No stimulus, no recovery. So, now that the stimulus has dissipated and the home equity jet-fuel ($500 bil per year) has evaporated, who's going to spend enough money to keep the economy bobbing along in positive territory? Big business? No way. Why would businesses make more products for people who have no money? Consumers? Nope. They died in the Crash of '08. The only one who can maintain spending and keep the economy plugging-along while households get their balance sheets together, is the government. But that means more stimulus and bigger deficits, which both party's oppose. So nothing's going to get done, right? Oh yeah, there'll be more pompous pronouncements and political wrangling, but nothing of substance. The payroll tax holiday will end in December, unemployment benefits will get slashed, housing prices will continue to stumble, and ---by election-time--the economy will be in a shambles. Bottom line: The political process is broken, so the economy's going to tank. Bet on it.
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#1. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)
Big business? No way. Why would businesses make more products for people who have no money? Consumers? Nope. They died in the Crash of '08. The only one who can maintain spending and keep the economy plugging-along while households get their balance sheets together, is the government. But that means more stimulus and bigger deficits, which both party's oppose. So nothing's going to get done, right? Oh yeah, there'll be more pompous pronouncements and political wrangling, but nothing of substance. The payroll tax holiday will end in December, unemployment benefits will get slashed, housing prices will continue to stumble, and ---by election-time--the economy will be in a shambles. Eric I'm surprised you posted this.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
The US taxpayer has footed the bill to keep banks and corporations afloat. It's time some of that was re-invested into the American taxpayer...
America...My Kind Of Place... "I truly am not that concerned about [bin Laden]..." "THE MILITIA IS COMING!!! THE MILITIA IS COMING!!!" I lurk to see if someone other than Myst or Pookie posts anything...
That would seem logical.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
I see no fault in the analysis. I admit, I usually expect you to not read the article, and reflexively resort to MSM soundbites... I'm pleased that you considered the entire thing. Two key points to take away (from my perspective) about this article, are the following quotes: Well, oddly enough, it's not that hard to explain, and it doesn't require a Masters in Economics to grasp the main points. To begin with, let's state the obvious: We're in a Depression. Yes, that's a "judgement call", but for 90 percent of working people in this country, the word accurately describes the slump we're in. ... ....Bottom line: The political process is broken, so the economy's going to tank. Bet on it. I confess, at this point, I have no idea what we can possibly do, to get out of this jam... It seems we (the USA) are trapped in a death-spiral of debt, and none of the options you and I have debated will make any meaningful dent in the mountain of debt we have... It scares the crap out of me. I never thought I'd see this day, but I agree with you 100%. By eliminating income taxes, the taxpayer doesn't have to foot anyone else's bills, and can decide how to invest their own money in themselves. The government has no place telling people how to spend their money, and they should shut their fat mouths. I think your idea is brilliant!
To:Skippy, toe-jam, old man Fred Alzheimers Mertz, _jim, loonymom/ming, e-type-jackoff, goober56, Wrek, calcon, dummy DwarF, continental op, Biff, gobsheit and meguro From: Capitalist Eric Message: You're SOCIALIST morons. ESAD. I don't get why you resist raising taxes? The rich are not productive. They don't invest. Why coddle them? The Rich lied to America. We want our jobs and money back Back in the 90s the free-trade/globalization movement that had begun in earnest a decade earlier took full shape. At the time we had a Democratic President in Clinton who along with some Democrats from his party and most Republicans passed NAFTA and a host of other free trade / open border globalization economic policies. The American people were told that if they supported globalization even if it led to outsourcing, the next phase in the economy would be one long boom because manufacturing was a dead end and part of the old economy. The new jobs would be the service industry in an office and or maybe people would get to work from home, etc. Enough people bought into this economic ideology that in the 1990s the switch over began in earnest (long planned but carried out under Clinton). Now we have had 20 years of this economic philosophy and the experiment has failed for most Americans. The American people have every right to ask for their money back from the he top 1% to 2% of the population that lied to them about the benefits of this new economy. If a new model automobile performed as poorly as the globalized economy did it would have been recalled already. Why are you still carrying water for the top 1% to 2% who got there because the vast majority made their money from outsourcing production and selling it back to the American people at no discount? The vast difference in low production cost versus the sales price to Americans was pocketed by the top 1%. That is how the wealth transfer worked in earnest. Do you see much a difference in the retail cost of a product made overseas compared to the cost of a MADE IN THE USA brand (if you can still find such a thing)? These obscene profits resulting from the difference in low production costs came at the expense of an American manufacturing job with a decent wage. Americans were willing to see their manufacturing base be reduced if it meant cost savings in retail outlets (it did not) and if new jobs paying comparable manufacturing sector wages appeared in service sectors to replace lost these outsourced manufacturing jobs (also did not happen). The reality is we lost jobs, many to never return and wages earned have shrunk for the Middle Class while the work load has increased. As I see it, at this point freedom of action to correct the failed globalized American economy is limited to two avenues for the American people. One is to undo all those free trade treaties signed in the last 20 years. It can be done but it would be difficult and lead to possible trade wars. In the short term it would be devastating to the economy if that was the case. A more readily available solution is to take back the wealth from the top 2% of the population that made their fortunes in the last 2 decades in large part due to outsourcing and return (not transfer but RETURN) that money back to the rest of the population in the forms of government services like universal health care and investment in the nation's future (NASA, infrastructure, education). The promises made by the top 2% via politicians and experts failed to materialize as promised. It is only fair that the rest of the 98% of the population who suffered from this failure are compensated back. Standing in our way are most Republicans and some Democrats (that seems to be the ratio) who still carry water for the oligarchs that stole our fortunes away. How long will this go on before we correct their error?
With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.
Neither the D's nor the R's will take their medicine, liquidate the debt, and let the "too big to fail" banksters fail, so they're going to try to kick the can down the road once again. Every time they do another QE the effect is less than the previous one. They're out of options. The problem is not just in the US, but is global. About the only way to force a liquidation of debt and blame it on someone else, is war. If the sheeple think we're under attack by some boogieman they'll rally behind the politicians and take their medicine. Jobs for all in the MIC, either manufacturing or fighting. Worked for FDR, after his socialist economic policies failed. Because the economic problem is worldwide, the war will be WW III. The plan stinks, but it's the only hope for the politicians and the D&R party, to save their ass. It could all be done without the war, but politicians would have to take the hit for their screw ups. The sheeple will continue to vote D&R establishment, never realizing that they're really asking for WW III. They don't call em sheeple, for nothing!
Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.
Debt elimination will not lead to economic growth.
With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.
Not in the socialist class, but the capitalist class will take off like a rocket! If you think we need an economic stimulus, we can cut gov size by half, and repeat as needed.
Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.
Of course YOU don't goober! YOU are a libTURD whore. Here's why goober, 1.) ... IF the gooberment took EVERY F ING CENT THAT ALL F ING AMERICANS MAKE, IT WOULDN'T EVEN DENT OUR DEBT. WE DON'T HAVE AN INCOME PROBLEM GOOBER, WE HAVE A SPENDING PROBLEM, FOOL. 2.) Only a gibbering libTURD commie illterate would ever even TRY to claim that "the rich are not productive". IF you had ever had an actual JOB fool, you would know that poor people don't HIRE people or generate jobs FOOL 3.) The "rich" DON'T PAY TAXES you gibbering libTURD idiot, the people who make them "rich" do FOOL. That would be ALL AMERICANS idiot. All that de ebil "rich" would do is RAISE prices for their goods and services and WE would pay the TAXES idiot. 4.) You apparently "think" that anybody that makes a decent living is RICH, and you hate them like the good little libTURD whore that you are. So when you libTURD cunts talk about "the rich" what you are really talking about is the AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS. 5.) ONLY A TOTALLY ECONOMICALLY ILLITERATE COMMIE SKELL SUCH AS YOU WOULD TRY TO RAISE TAXES NOW ON ALL AMERICANS WHEN WE ARE IN A DEPRESSION ALREADY. That would kill the already non-existant "recovery" you filthy libTURD skell. 6.) ... I could go on skell, but you are just a libTURD whore doing you WHORE thing. TRUTH means nothing to libTURD SCUM such as YOU. libTURD SCUM. SCUM Spit ...
Spoiled, stupid and ignorant, brain dead phuckwads, libTURD fools, tools, and idiots, are the real sickness; the messiah "king" obammy and his regime are only the symptoms.
It would save us about $400B a year in debt service.
nc; It would save us about $400B a year in debt service. . The objective TRUTH means nothing to these gibbering herds of libTURD whores. That's the problem that decent people make when dealing with these filth. We assume that they CARE about what the OBJECTIVE TRUTH is. They don't. They don't even believe in OBJECTIVE TRUTH.
Spoiled, stupid and ignorant, brain dead phuckwads, libTURD fools, tools, and idiots, are the real sickness; the messiah "king" obammy and his regime are only the symptoms.
You would look more intelligent if you resisted the temptation to get off an insult or two.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
Bush played that card for all it was worth, I don't think it'll work again any time soon.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
Loonymom: You would look more intelligent if you resisted the temptation to get off an insult or two. Clearly, youj find objective facts (when you bother to acknowledge them) to be insulting to you. Once again, you prove you're one stupid bitch.
To:Skippy, toe-jam, old man Fred Alzheimers Mertz, _jim, loonymom/ming, e-type-jackoff, goober56, Wrek, calcon, dummy DwarF, continental op, Biff, gobsheit and meguro From: Capitalist Eric Message: You're SOCIALIST morons. ESAD. Who is youj?
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
It's a typo. But being a stupid bitch, that was probably lost on you.
To:Skippy, toe-jam, old man Fred Alzheimers Mertz, _jim, loonymom/ming, e-type-jackoff, goober56, Wrek, calcon, dummy DwarF, continental op, Biff, gobsheit and meguro From: Capitalist Eric Message: You're SOCIALIST morons. ESAD. The amount that the economy will lose by eliminating the debt through spending cuts would be catastrophic. If you want to raise taxes on the rich to pay down the debt it may be a wash as long as it is done when the economy recovers.
With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.
Once again, you prove you're one stupid bitch. Eric is too stupid to realise the irony of his own statement.
With the economy still in the dumper -- maybe permanently? -- and full-time jobs becoming as scarce as rain during a drought, huge percentages of Americans have had their (misplaced) faith in the American dream shaken, the upper-middle-class consumerist lifestyle is exposed as a mirage for anybody who plays by the rules. Capitalism and the America that embraced it as a way of life is now and forever more a failure. It does me good to know that the generation that voted in Reagan and his ideology will see their America die from that ideology before their very own eyes and knowing they had a hand in its destruction.
And a good morning to you too, Eric.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
Eric projects a lot.
"...all of the equations in neoclassical economics are rubbish. The differential equations describe nothing. Economics is not about mathematics, it is about the human being." Sandeep Jaitly
Godwinincg, All this demonstrates is you can't understand a topic for yourself, and require leftwingnut talking points. Please don't waste my time with this drivel. Thanks in advance. Zero job growth last month under this regime. Thats the bottom line. All else is excuse making for a community organizer that doesn't have a clue, and refuses to buy a vowel.
Proxy IP's are amusing.....lmao
So, now that the stimulus has dissipated and the home equity jet-fuel ($500 bil per year) has evaporated, who's going to spend enough money to keep the economy bobbing along in positive territory?
#2. To: lucysmom (#1)
--GW Bush
--Sarah Palin's version of "The Midnight Ride of Paul revere"
#3. To: war (#2)
It's time some of that was re-invested into the American taxpayer...
#4. To: lucysmom, Badeye, A K A Stone, hondo68, Fred Mertz, Godwinson, go65, war, no gnu taxes, Skip Intro, ferret mike, jwpegler, brian s, mcgowanjm, Mininggold (#1)
Eric I'm surprised you posted this.
So, what's really going on with the economy?
war: The US taxpayer has footed the bill to keep banks and corporations afloat. It's time some of that was re-invested into the American taxpayer...
#5. To: Capitalist Eric, lucysmom, Badeye, A K A Stone, hondo68, Fred Mertz, go65, war, no gnu taxes, Skip Intro, ferret mike, jwpegler, brian s, mcgowanjm, Mininggold (#4)
I confess, at this point, I have no idea what we can possibly do, to get out of this jam... It seems we (the USA) are trapped in a death-spiral of debt, and none of the options you and I have debated will make any meaningful dent in the mountain of debt we have...
#6. To: Capitalist Eric, *Ron Paul for President* (#4)
(Edited)
....Bottom line: The political process is broken, so the economy's going to tank. Bet on it.
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#7. To: hondo68, Capitalist Eric (#6)
Neither the D's nor the R's will take their medicine, liquidate the deb
#8. To: Godwinson, *Liberal Rehab Staff* (#7)
Debt elimination will not lead to economic growth.
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#9. To: Gooberloserton, Capitalist Eric, ALL (#5)
(Edited)
I don't get why you resist raising taxes? The rich are not productive. They don't invest. Why coddle them?
#10. To: Godwinson, hondo68, Capitalist Eric (#7)
Debt elimination will not lead to economic growth.
#11. To: nolu chan (#10)
goober; Debt elimination will not lead to economic growth.
#12. To: Capitalist Eric (#4)
I admit, I usually expect you to not read the article, and reflexively resort to MSM soundbites... I'm pleased that you considered the entire thing.
#13. To: hondo68 (#6)
If the sheeple think we're under attack by some boogieman they'll rally behind the politicians and take their medicine.
#14. To: lucysmom (#12)
(Edited)
Capitalist Eric: I admit, I usually expect you to not read the article, and reflexively resort to MSM soundbites... I'm pleased that you considered the entire thing.
#15. To: Capitalist Eric (#14)
Clearly, youj find objective facts (when you bother to acknowledge them) to be insulting to you.
#16. To: lucysmom (#15)
#17. To: nolu chan (#10)
It would save us about $400B a year in debt service.
#18. To: Capitalist Eric, lucysmom (#14)
Clearly, youj find objective facts (when you bother to acknowledge them) to be insulting to you.
#19. To: Capitalist Eric (#16)
It's a typo. But being a stupid bitch, that was probably lost on you.
#20. To: Godwinson (#18)
Eric is too stupid to realise the irony of his own statement.
#21. To: Godwinson (#5)
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