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Title: Tropical Storm Katia Strengthens in Atlantic; Headed for U.S.?
Source:
IBTIMES
URL Source: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/205 ... -depression-irene-atlantic.htm
Published: Aug 30, 2011
Author: IBTIMES
Post Date: 2011-08-30 11:52:18 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 390
August 30, 2011 11:25 AM EDT The recovery from Hurricane Irene in the United States Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions has only just begun, but another tropical disturbance, Tropical Storm Katia, is slowly strengthening over the eastern tropical Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Tuesday. On Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. EDT, the storm was located about 630 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, packing maximum sustained winds of about 45 miles per hour, the NHC said. Katia is moving north/north-west at 17 miles per hour (mph) and has top wind of 40 mph. Katia Expected to Become a Hurricane Katia is expected to become a hurricane by late Wednesday or early Thursday, the NHC added. The depression over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Katia, The Weather Channel reported Tuesday. Computer models are in excellent agreement that Katia should move north of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. However, that is a long way off and the forecast could change, so interests in the Leeward Islands should check back for future updates on Katia. The Weather Channel's projection cone has Katia moving toward Guadeloupe or points north by early Sunday, intensifying to a Category 3 hurricane, with top wind speeds increasing to 115 mph. However, it's too soon to determine if any land areas will eventually be affected. 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011 East-northeasterly shear over katia has decreased and the storm continues to gradually become better organized. The banding features are better defined and the low-level center has become embedded within a small central convective overcast. Upper-level outflow is also becoming more prominent. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt so the current wind speed is set at 40 kt. With weakening shear and sea surface temperatures just below 28 deg c...Katia should continue to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane in 36 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is close to the hfip model consensus...Which shows katia nearing major hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is a slightly faster 285/16. Not much change has been made to the track forecast. Katia is expected to continue moving west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period...The tropical cyclone is expected to be approaching a weakness in the ridge created by a trough over the western atlantic. This should cause katia to begin to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The official forecast lies a little north of the dynamical model consensus through 48 hours and is very close to the consensus for the remainder of the forecast period. Forecast positions and max winds init 30/1500z 12.3n 33.4w 40 kt 45 mph 12h 31/0000z 13.0n 35.7w 50 kt 60 mph 24h 31/1200z 13.8n 39.0w 55 kt 65 mph 36h 01/0000z 14.6n 42.4w 65 kt 75 mph 48h 01/1200z 15.4n 45.7w 75 kt 85 mph 72h 02/1200z 17.0n 51.5w 85 kt 100 mph 96h 03/1200z 19.0n 55.5w 95 kt 110 mph 120h 04/1200z 21.5n 59.5w 100 kt 115 mph $$ forecaster pasch
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