Tropical Storm Irene churned across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday, showing every indication of becoming the seasons first hurricane. Irene is expected to reach hurricane strength by Monday as it nears the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. If the forecast by the National Hurricane Center holds, it could approach South Florida late Thursday or early Friday as a hurricane.
Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the center in West Miami-Dade County, cautioned that there was still uncertainty in the forecast and the storm was still a long way away about 1300 miles from Miami at 8 a.m. Sunday. Most of the centers computer models also steered the storm toward South Florida but the timing of a turn could take it south of the peninsula or offshore over the Bahamas.
It is still really early," said Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. "It is certainly something that residents of South Florida should monitor."
The biggest question about Irene was how powerful it might become. Though its winds remained at 50 mph overnight, the system appeared to becoming more compact and better organized. Forecasters said it was also entering an area with atmospheric conditions and warm waters that would fuel further strengthening. The only real hurdles in its way were the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba.
How well it survives a crossing will play a key role in its development once it enters the Florida Straits. The official forecast holds Irene to a Category 1 hurricane as it approached South Florida but forecasters stress that its difficult to estimate intensity with a storm four or five days off.
Click for Full Text!