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Title: Why "business needs certainty" is destructive
Source: Salon
URL Source: http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/g ... /business_certainty/index.html
Published: Aug 15, 2011
Author: Yves Smith
Post Date: 2011-08-15 12:15:36 by lucysmom
Keywords: None
Views: 5606
Comments: 13

If you read the business and even the political press, you've doubtless encountered the claim that the economy is a mess because the threat to reregulate in the wake of a global-economy-wrecking financial crisis is creating "uncertainty." That is touted as the reason why corporations are sitting on their hands and not doing much in the way of hiring and investing.

This is propaganda that needs to be laughed out of the room.

I approach this issue as as a business practitioner. I have spent decades advising major financial institutions, private equity and hedge funds, and very wealthy individuals (Forbes 400 level) on enterprises they own. I've run a profit center in a major financial firm and have have also operated a consulting business for over 20 years. So I've had extensive exposure to the dysfunction I am about to describe.

Commerce is all about making decisions and committing resources with the hope of earning profit when the managers cannot know the future. "Uncertainty" is used casually by the media, but when trying to confront the vagaries of what might happen, analysts distinguish risk from "uncertainty", which for them has a very specific meaning.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 9.

#2. To: lucysmom (#0)

If you read the business and even the political press, you've doubtless encountered the claim that the economy is a mess because the threat to reregulate in the wake of a global-economy-wrecking financial crisis is creating "uncertainty."

This is propaganda that needs to be laughed out of the room.

Like a good little sheep, you pretend the lie is the truth, and the truth is a lie.

It's gonna' be HARD for you to do it, but try to use a little common-sense...

If I'm going to put some of my money into a company in another country, I want to make sure the country doesn't have a sudden political revolution, where the government takes over all private companies, and my money is lost (commonly referred to as "political risk").

If I'm going to put some of my money into a company in another country, I want to make sure the country doesn't have a sudden economic collapse, like Brazil had in 2000, as they're currency hyperinflated to infinity. In such a situation, my money would (again) be lost. This is country-specific "economic risk."

For each threat to whatever I'm considering investing in, there is a premium- extra interest built into the expected returns. If the risks (either economic or political, or both) within a country are too high for the perceived return, I would not invest.

If the perceived risks equal the return, then I may, or may not, invest.

If the perceived risks are lower than the return, I will definitely invest.

This is called the "risk vs. return" relationship, or "risk management." Everyone does this; people and corporations make such decisions, EVERY day... If you think the economy is going swell, and you'll be making more money, you may consider that new Lexus or BMW, or whatever, even if it means you'll be making payments. OTOH, if you believe the economy will continue to spiral down the toilet, and you're uncertain of where you'll get the money to pay for such a car, you may choose instead to stick with the 10 year-old Honda, to play it safe...

ALL of this is common sense stuff.

Why YOU think it's "propaganda," is your demonstration of "Alice-In-Wonderland" logic.

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-08-15   13:52:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Capitalist Eric (#2)

Why YOU think it's "propaganda," is your demonstration of "Alice-In-Wonderland" logic.

Either you didn't read the whole article, or you didn't understand what you read.

Keep up the insults, they're entertaining.

lucysmom  posted on  2011-08-15   19:33:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: lucysmom (#3)

I read the first two sentences, and knew that you'd simply posted another bullshit propaganda piece.

What a surprise.

Keep up the insults, they're entertaining.

They're NOT insults. They're objective observations.

You assume I GAS about you enough to insult you.

You're beneath contempt, and you'll pay a heavy price for your dull stupidity.

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-08-16   11:15:42 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Capitalist Eric (#7)

You're beneath contempt, and you'll pay a heavy price for your dull stupidity.

You're just upset that I caught you commenting on something you hadn't read.

lucysmom  posted on  2011-08-16   12:25:07 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 9.

#10. To: lucysmom (#9)

You're just upset that I caught you commenting on something you hadn't read.

Eric is good for entertainment sometimes, though I usually keep him on filter to avoid cluttering up threads. A while ago he railed against global warming while posting charts that showed warming.

go65  posted on  2011-08-16 12:37:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: lucysmom (#9)

You're just upset that I caught you commenting on something you hadn't read.

More Alice-In-Wonderland logic. (((rolling eyes)))

Time to up your meds, grannie.

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-08-16 17:48:45 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 9.

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