WASHINGTON — A USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds signs that another "wave" election with the potential to dramatically change the capital's political makeup may be building.
Only 24% of those surveyed say most members of Congress deserve re-election, the lowest standing since Gallup began asking the question in 1991. Fifty-six percent say their own representative deserves another term, similar to responses just before tumultuous elections in 1994, 2006 and 2010 that changed control of the House or Senate.
And a majority of Americans, 51%, say President Obama doesn't deserve re-election; 47% say he does. In another question, Obama bests an unnamed Republican presidential candidate by 48%-45%, though he remains below the 50% threshold.
"Is there substantial dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, with the way things are, with the people in charge? The answer to that is yes," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, who has written about the prospect of a fourth "wave" election in a row. Less clear is whether voters are ready to blame one party or the other.
"These numbers don't say Obama is going to lose," he adds, "but as long as you have a majority of people who are disapproving and you have the president sitting only in the upper 40s, he's still at great risk."
The 2012 election is 15 months away, which is plenty of time for the political landscape to shift. About this time before the 1994 election, when Democrats lost control of the House and Senate, dismay with Congress already was set. But a year before the 2006 election, when Democrats regained control of both houses, incumbents still had somewhat higher support.
If congressional elections were held today, Americans by 49%-45% say they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican.
In the GOP contest to challenge Obama, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney continues to lead the field, at 24%, but a potential candidate who hasn't entered the race yet is in second place.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has been exploring a presidential campaign, ranks behind Romney at 17%. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who like Perry appeals to many Tea Party supporters and Christian evangelicals, is fourth at 13%.
In third place is Texas Rep. Ron Paul, at 14%. No other Republican candidate breaks into double digits. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 7%, businessman Herman Cain at 4%, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty at 3%, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman at 2%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum at 1%.
Perry narrowly leads Romney among Tea Party supporters, 23% to 22%. Bachmann claims 19% of members of the Tea Party movement.
The poll of 1,521 adults, taken Thursday through Sunday, has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
