Stocks and Treasuries are moving in tandem twice as often as they normally do, a sign investors are growing convinced the U.S. will lose its AAA credit rating and that an impasse among lawmakers may spur losses in both markets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen or fallen together with 10-year Treasury notes 80 percent of the time in the last 10 days, compared with the average since 2000 of 41 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark index for American shares lost 2 percent yesterday, the most since June 1, and the 10-year bond fell, driving its yield up three basis points to 2.98 percent.
Equities and government bonds are reversing their historical relationship because a downgrade and the possibility of default by the U.S. government would put principal payments at risk and curb economic growth that has helped send the S&P 500 up 93 percent since March 2009. Conviction that lawmakers will fail sent rates on bills due next month to the highest level since March 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The politicians should learn from this that they shouldn’t wait until we have our backs against the wall,” Donald Selkin, New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., said in a telephone interview. Selkin, a 35-year Wall Street veteran, helps manage about $3 billion. “It’s very irresponsible because it can affect the economy and jobs. They’re putting us in a situation where we could have another financial meltdown.”
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