The index of U.S. leading indicators rebounded in May after declining for the first time in almost a year, a sign economic growth may pick up by the end of 2011. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.8 percent after a revised 0.4 percent decline in April, the New York-based group said today. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
Manufacturing and the rest of the economy may benefit in coming months from cheaper fuel prices and the easing of supply bottlenecks stemming from the earthquake in Japan. An expansion the Federal Reserve says is “moderate” may ensure interest rates stay close to zero until early 2012.
“The outlook is better for the second half,” said Maury Harris, chief economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York. “We’re getting relief from gas prices, and you’re also going to see auto output go back up again as we get a renewed inflow of auto parts from Japan.”
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