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politics and politicians Title: Poll: Romney Builds Modest Lead In 2012 Race WASHINGTON — As Republican presidential contenders prepare for their first major debate Monday, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney building a modest lead in a political climate that could be well-suited to his candidacy. To be sure, voters' loyalties are far from set seven or eight months before the opening caucuses and primaries. By 2-1, Republican and Republican-leaning independents say they may change their minds about whom to support. But there is no question which issue swamps all others in importance: the economy and jobs. Those surveyed were inclined to prefer the candidate who has the best chance of defeating President Obama rather than one who agrees with them on every issue. "Romney has had a good six months, solidifying himself as the front-runner" and blasting Obama on the economy as disappointing jobless numbers were released, says Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who ran Bob Dole's presidential campaign in 1996 . "He has shaped up to be the 800-pound gorilla in New Hampshire." The results underscore the importance of the 8 p.m. ET debate at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., sponsored by CNN, WMUR-TV and The New Hampshire Union Leader. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty signaled Sunday he was ready to fire at the front-runner, coining a new word to link Romney to Obama for signing a Massachusetts law that required nearly everyone to get health insurance coverage. "President Obama said that he designed ObamaCare after RomneyCare, and basically made it ObamneyCare," Pawlenty said on Fox News Sunday. "What I don't understand is they both continue to defend it." Romney pledges to repeal the federal health care law but defends the Massachusetts plan as an appropriate state effort to address a serious health care problem. For Pawlenty and other challengers whose support remains in single digits, the debate is an opportunity to break through to voters. That may be particularly true for former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, who at 9% now ranks third in the Republican field. For Romney, the debate is a chance to tout his credentials as a businessman who understands how to create jobs. His past flip-flops on social issues such as abortion, which dogged his 2008 presidential bid, haven't commanded as much attention this time. In the poll, just 8% say social issues such as abortion and gay marriage are most important to them, the same percentage who identify foreign affairs and national security as their top concern. Another 14% cite government debt and 11% government's size and power. A solid majority, 57%, say the economy and jobs will be the most important factor determining their support for the nomination. The poll of 851 Republican and Republican-leaning independents, taken Wednesday through Saturday, has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Romney's support stands at 24%, up 7 percentage points compared with a survey three weeks earlier. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who hasn't indicated whether she will run for president, is at 16%. If she doesn't run, Romney's support bumps up to 27%. In some ways, Romney's standing is fragile. Only three in 10 Romney supporters say they are certain to back him. In contrast, more than half of Palin's supporters are certain to support her. Making the case that he's the strongest candidate against Obama looms as key: Six in 10 of his supporters say that's more important than agreeing on issues. Romney's backers tend to be older, more educated and somewhat more affluent. He fares best among those who say the government debt is their top issue and worst among those who cite social issues. Four years ago, a majority of Republicans wanted a nominee who agreed with them on issues even if he or she didn't have the best chance to win in November. Now, in a turnaround, they say by 50%-44% that they'd prefer a candidate with the best chance of gaining back the White House. And after potential contenders from real estate magnate Donald Trump to Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour decided against jumping in the race, Republican and Republican-leaning voters seem sanguine about the field. By 67%-27%, they say they are satisfied with their choice of candidates.
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